A Fifth of Syria's Population Have Now Left the Country

I've published similar maps, but this map and link (paywall) to Le Monde  Diplomatique emphasizes the scale: one fifth of Syria's population are now outside the country.

When Refugees Fled TO Syria, Rather than FROM It

A hat tip to Juan Cole's website for this one, which is self-explanatory:

2.5 Million Syrian Refugees in Saudi Arabia? A Question

I'm very busy with our Fall issue but want to address one question I haven't seen discussed very much.

There has been a lot of discussion about the fact (or factoid) that the GCC states have not accepted Syrian refugees, unlike other Arab neighbors. Some of the criticism has been fair, and some unfair, such as posting photos of the Saudi tent city for Hajj pilgrims and saying these tents are standing empty. Since the Hajj is next week I'm sure they're filling up fast.

Several days ago (on September 11 to be exact), the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs insisted that not only was it hosting Syrian refugees, but that it was hosting no fewer than 2.5 million. The statement, posted by the Saudi Embassy in Washington, can be found here.

Part of it reads:

1. The Kingdom has received around 2.5 million Syrians since the beginning of the conflict. In order to ensure their dignity and safety, the Kingdom adopted the policy not to treat them as refugees or place them in refugee camps. They have been given the freedom to move about the country, and those who wish to remain in Saudi Arabia (some hundreds of thousands) have been given legal residency status like the remaining residents. Their residency comes with the rights to receive free medical care, to join the labor market and to attend schools and universities. This was contained in a royal decree in 2012 that instructed public schools to accept Syrian students. According to government statistics, the public school system has accepted more than 100,000 Syrian students.

Pro-Saudi apologists have touted this and critics of the Kingdom have expressed questions, but hardly anyone has raised an issue of who, exactly, these Syrians may be.

Northwestern Saudi Arabia is still a largely tribal area, with significant portions of the non-urban population either true nomads or transhumants who shift their livestock between summer and winter pasture.  These tribes are trans-national and sometimes have dual nationality if their winter and summer camps are on opposite sides of the boundary lines drawn with a straightedge ruler at the end of World War I. Unless there is a suspicion of a security threat, the nation-states rarely interfere with the semi-nomadic lifestyle that has persisted since ancient times.

One of the best known of these is the large tribal confederation of the Shammar, who may number as many as four million and are found in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Syria, and Jordan. The Arabian branch of the Shammar, under the Rashid ruling family, were once the main rivals to the House of Saud.

Other big tribes that transcend borders are the ‘Anayza confederation, with multiple large subtribes including the important Ruwalla in Syria, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia,

The true nomadic and seasonal transhumant elements among these tribes have routinely crossed map boundaries with near impunity. So my question is: what proportion of the Syrian refugees in Saudi Arabia are Bedouin who simply moved across the border to escape the war in Syria by joining their tribal kin in Saudi Arabia, or perhaps even migrating to their seasonal grazing pastures?

I'm not sure it matters, and bravo to the Saudis for accepting them, but most of the responses to the Saudi statement haven't noted this aspect.

Nearly a Quarter of a Million Syrian Refugees Are in Iraq. How Desperate Must You Be to Consider IRAQ a Refuge?

For those critical of the refugee influx in Europe this is a reminder that the bulk are still in camps in the Middle East. I continue to be astounded that nearly a quarter of a million Syrians have fled to IRAQ.

Attention: all those Western journalists on the Serbian-Hungarian border: does it only become a story at an EU Frontier?

Völkerwanderung 2015

Not since the end of World War II and the mass displacements then, and two years later after the partition of India and Pakistan, and the Chinese Civil War,  have we seen such massive human displacements as we are seeing today, not just the Syrian refugee crisis, though that is the most acute, but the ongoing flow of Sub-Saharan Africans, Somalis, Libyans, and others seeking to flee across the Mediterranean to Europe.

Some may ask why the migrants cannot remain in the Middle East. One answer is "Sorry: Full." There are already nearly 2 million in Turkey. There are over a million in Lebanon, a country with less than 5 million population and a longstanding host to a significant Palestinian refugee population. It is said that a Syrian refugee camp is now the second largest city in Jordan. One such camp is seen here:
And if the map below is accurate, nearly a quarter of a million Syrian refugees are now in Iraq, which suggests the level of desperation.

Now the map clearly shows that not every country in the Middle East is opening its borders, and this is a justifiable reason for criticism. But if some of the richest countries are turning a blind eye, others, particularly Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan, are bearing the burden.

There is an irony in the fact that the Gulf states are not yet shouldering a share. When Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990-1991, many Kuwaitis sought refuge elsewhere. The photo below is said to show Kuwaiti cars backed up at the Syrian border in 1991 (I cannot verify the identification), but Syria did open its borders to Kuwaiti refugees at the time. Kuwait has yet to return the favor.

The reality is that, however much we may deplore the policies of individual countries, this is a crisis of global scale My own country, once the welcoming haven for refugees, is to my regret going through one of its periodic nativist spasms, so that the words on that statue in New York Harbor may seem quaint today:

Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"

The massive deaths and displacements of the 1930s and 1940s from Europe to China are the most recent precedent for the scale of human migration we are seeing today, though there are others (Indochina in the 1970s, Africa more recently) that are more recent. But unlike, say, the example of Kuwait in 1990-1991 mentioned above, the present migrants are unlikely to be going home anytime soon.These may be long-term refugees, like the Palestinians or the population exchanges accompanying Indian partition. As a descendant of Irish who fled to the New World during the  Great Famine, and of Ulster Scots who fled rack-renting a century earlier, I can attest that migration is a constant in human history, and not always a bad thing.

But we seem to be dealing here with an issue of scale. Again, it is not just Syria. Iraq and Libya and Yemen in the Middle East are also seeing outflows, as is sub-Saharan Africa.

Historians of the Ancient World speak of the Völkerwanderungen, the wanderings of whole peoples, at key points in history, notably during the massive disruptions marking the end of the bronze Age (the "Sea Peoples," the legends of the Fall of Troy, etc.), and again in Europe accompanying the decline of Rome and the "Barbarian" invasion. We may not yet be dealing with a modern
Völkerwanderung on that scale, but we do face a global challenge and global challenges should not be met with narrow national responses, driven by domestic politics, but by a genuine sense of global responsibility.

The Power of an Image May Grab Our Attention for a Day, But What of Tomorrow?

The heartbreaking image of a drowned Syrian toddler washed ashore on a Turkish beach is all over the media today, including much of the Arab media. Out of respect for the dead I see no need to reproduce it here, but for a while at least it is calling attention to the plight of the refugees and the immense human tragedy that is intensifying.

Much outrage is being expressed in the Arab media. Yet outside of Lebanon and Jordan, few Arab countries have been welcoming to refugees and those two plus Turkey are at saturation point. Egypt has accepted some, though it is harder to reach. The countries of the Arabian Peninsula, who have in various ways helped stir the pot in Syria, have done little for the refugees. Europe's response is obviously mixed.

The image of a dead child will no doubt, for a time, increase charitable contributions to refugee causes. But a month from now a year from now will anyone still remember? The sheer enormity of the disaster boggles the mind, but a photo today touched the world. For a moment. But will anything be done?

Aww, Poor Things: Daily Mail Laments Plight of Vacationers Inconvenienced by Migrant Refugee Camp

The pesky Third World has created another First World problem: that paragon of journalism the Daily Mail bemoans the fact that the Mediterranean refugee crisis has inconvenienced Europeans on holiday on the Greek island of Kos:

Admittedly, the photos suggest the irony, though the tone of the headline doesn't.

The homeless migrants were not asked their opinion of the tourists.

More Mediterranean Migrants Have Probably Drowned This Year to Date than Died on the Titanic, but None of Them were Named Astor or Guggenheim

"Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"

Emma Lazarus for the Statue of Liberty

The latest disaster of a sinking ship carrying migrants from Libya and other parts of Africa to southern Europe has drowned somewhere between 700 and 950 human beings; and it's only one of several such sinkings in the last few weeks. The navies and coast guards of Italy, Malta, and Greece try to rescue survivors, but overpacked migrant ships often capsize with most of the passengers below decks. Libyan migrants are not the only ones aboard; sub-Saharan Africans are also fleeing through Libya.

No one knows the exact toll because some ships may disappear wholly undetected. Many think the death toll this year alone may be over 2,000, perhaps 1,500 or so in the last month alone.

A hundred and three years and a week ago, on April 14, 1912, RMS Titanic sank.  Somewhere between 1,500 and 1,600 people died. Some had names like Astor and Guggenheim, and it became one of the great symbols of the end of an era. Now thousands whose names will never be known are dying at sea, and thousands more are crowding into Lampedusa and Malta and other places looking for refuge. James Cameron probably will not make a high-budget film about their last hours.

It's not just Libya. Refugees from sub-Saharan Africa have been pouring into North Africa looking for a route to Europe. There are no easy answers to massive refugee flows. But there may be humanitarian answers to massive drownings. How many Titanics need to sink before the UNHCR and others recognize we are dealing with a first-order crisis? Despite my reproducing the Photoshop above I can't blame the European countries alone. The North African countries are doing their best to funnel refugees through as quickly as possible and out to sea.

I think the world is finally noticing the toll. The North African countries need to recognize their own responsibilities in this escalating disaster.

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