The Lighter Side: Some Tweets from "Round One" of the Debate

After long delays in getting started and nearly two hours of debate, "round one" of the Egyptian Presidential debate is over. They're taking a thirty minute break as I write this, then coming back for another 90 minutes. If my math is right this thing will go past midnight in Cairo. So I thought, since it will be hours before it's over, some of the more amusing Twitter commentary in English (hashtag #monazarat) would be worth preserving. There's a lot of serious commentary out there too, but I'm going for the humor here. And I know most Egyptians aren't on Twitter and most of those who are post in Arabic, but this is for my broader audience.

And yes, they called it the end of "Round One." So naturally:

Not surprisingly, the lengthy delays drew a lot of comments. One candidate was delayed in traffic, which was one reason for the delay:

...which led to this comment:

But once Abu al-Futuh arrived, he paused for afternoon prayer, and the hosts did their talking head thing for longer and longer . . .



 The whole thing was preceded by lengthy ads. (State TV wasn't broadcasting it so commercial TV did it up commercially.) Then it was interrupted periodically by long commercial breaks. Perhaps the best comment I've seen on this:
Some of the other comments about the commercials:

While using up time the hosts ran clips of US Presidential debates from Kennedy-Nixon onward, but apparently made one slip-up:

When the debates actually began, most of the tweets became more serious, but there were odd moments:

Not everyone was watching or impressed (rude word warning):

And some were wondering about the man who wasn't there:

Egypt's First Presidential Debate

Egypt's elections (which even the court that "canceled" them now concedes aren't really cancelled) are less than two weeks away, and the first ever televised Presidential debate starts in under an hour, between supposed front-runners Amr Moussa and Abdel-Moneim Abu'l-Futuh. For those of you who know Arabic, it will be live-streamed on YouTube, which I'm embedding so you can watch it here. [Live stream now replaced with the video.]  The Guardian is live-blogging in English. So is the New York Times, here.
UPDATE: In the US the talking heads talk the debate to death after it ends. Egypt is putting the analysis ahead of the debate. You figure it out.
UPDATE II: This may explain it:

UPDATE III: 3:25 Eastern Time US, a couple of hours after coverage started, the two candidates finally come on stage.

Algeria Votes for Parliament Today

Algeria is voting in its Parliamentary elections today. Everyone seems to be expecting rather low participation, though many promises about transparency have been made. Blogger kal at The Moor Next Door follows Algeria closely; here's his post on the elections, with links to earlier posts and background pieces. More once we know the results.

Now, This is Just Getting Bloody Ridiculous . . .

 When we started the day, Egypt's Administrative Court and its Electoral Commission were at odds over whether Ahmad Shafiq could run for President. Now we're entering absurd territory, not to mention potentially explosive: a provincial Administrative Court has canceled the Presidential elections. This doesn't look likely to stand: it was a subordinate court at Benha in Qalyubiyya Governorate, just north of Cairo, and it said that the Supreme Presidential Electoral Commission (SPEC) did not have the constitutional authority to call elections, hence they were uncalled. But the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, which does whatever it damned well pleases have such authority, delegated the authority to SPEC. The Benha court's ruling will be appealed in Cairo tomorrow, and even if it ends up in the Supreme Constitutional Court, the head of that Court, Faruq Sultan, is also President of SPEC.

Given the violence last week and growing suspicions among Islamists about SCAF's intentions, this could be an explosive moment if it isn't reversed quickly. SPEC has already said it's ignoring the ruling. (Not great in terms of respect for the rule of law, but probably wise.)

Can this whole thing get any more bizarre? (I'm not sure I want to know the answer to that.)

Syrian Election Results Exactly Predicted: Sun Still Coming Up in the East

Syria held elections yesterday. (No, really.) I'm sorry, I didn't post about it. I keep writing about the Egyptian elections instead. One reason is that no one knows who's going to win in Egypt (unless SCAF knows). Syria's "competitive," "multi-party" elections (no, really, they swear) are so predictable that one Shakeeb al-Jabri posted a list of winners on Facebook on Sunday. The polls didn't open until Monday.

Now, as the results are coming in, surprise! surprise!, the list is nearly exactly accurate. The original list in Arabic is here, as are these comments:

 

Video: Nostalgia for Old Heliopolis

Though this is in Arabic, you don't really need a lot of Arabic to get the gist. Heliopolis (Misr al-Gadida) is the suburb of Cairo founded in the early 20th century at the edge of the desert, with its own distinctive architectural style, and this nostalgic piece includes old pictures and videos as well as reminiscences by older residents of what a "paradise" the place was. Notes on the narratives: rhe "Metro" everybody talks about is the tramline (shown early in the video) from Cairo to Heliopolis, decades before the subway.  Qasr al-Baron, the pseudo-Cambodian home of Baron Empain, founder of Heliopolis, has been celebrated previously on this blog. as has the Heliopolis Palace Hotel, also mentioned here, which became Mubarak's Uruba Presidential Palace.

Some Great Maps of Syria

I'm something of a map nut, so I really must link, with gratitude to Josh Landis and Syria Comment for pointing the way, to Syria Maps, a project by Esther Kim and Brendan O'Hanrahan to provide cartographic insight into what's going on in Syria. It's only got two maps up so far, one on Homs (below) and one of Idlib Province, but these should prove crucial resources.


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If It's Wednesday, Shafiq is Out of the Race; Wait for Thursday

Former Egyptian Air Force Chief and Prime Minister Ahmad Shafiq was considered a short-list Presidential candidate until Parliament passed a law barring senior officials from the last years of the Mubarak regime, which disqualified him. Then the Electoral Commission decided not to disqualify him, but to refer the law to the Constitutional Court, which agreed to hear the case, and Shafiq was back in the race. Now the Administrative Court has ruled that the Electoral Commission had no right to refer the law to the Constitutional Court. If it wins this jurisdictional contest, he's presumably out again. The Electoral Commission, by the way, is headed by the head of the Constitutional Court.

Though Shafiq is unlikely to win anyway, he's going to be in and out of the race until the courts, or somebody, resolve this turf battle.

But meanwhile,  just wait till tomorrow. An appeal is being considered.

Malinowski: Hard Truths on Bahrain

Tom Malinowski's "Prison Island," as its title implies, is not terribly encouraging on the situation in Bahrain, which he characterizes thus:

Since [the Bassiouni Commission], the momentum has dissipated. There has been no real resumption of dialogue between the government and opposition to pursue what moderates on both sides agree is the only viable solution to Bahrain's crisis -- a constitutional monarchy in which government ministers are chosen by an elected parliament rather than appointed by the king. This course of action would necessarily give Bahrain's Shiite majority more say in running the country, a prospect that is anathema to portions of the island's ruling family as well as its regional backers.
The government has also not ended human rights abuses against protesters. As we would see during our visit, police torture and abuse have simply moved from police stations to the alleyways and back lots of Shiite villages. The courts have agreed to retry key opposition leaders, but the government still refuses to release them, though their convictions were based on nothing more than the content of their speeches and participation in meetings and rallies challenging the monarchy. Also, for the first time in months, there is no approaching milestone -- no committee to be appointed, or report to be issued, or deadline to be met -- that might give moderate leaders reason to ask their people to be patient. The absence of hope is radicalizing both sides.

But he still sees some room for avoiding the worst:

Bahrain is almost broken, but not entirely so. The government is persecuting its critics, but not killing them on a large scale as in Syria. As everyone we met told us, Bahrain is a small country: The protagonists on both sides know each other, and there still seems to be room for compromise. But the window is rapidly closing, and once it shuts -- as in Syria -- it will be hard to turn back. Preventing this outcome by holding Bahrain to the commitments it made to the Bassiouni Commission, and encouraging political compromise, is America's paramount interest in Bahrain.

 It's worth your time.

Spring Issue: Now Online

The Spring issue of The Middle East Journal is now available online. You can purchase a download if you're not a subscriber. or become a member here; if you're already a subscriber instructions for online access is here.

• "Continuity and Change in the Social Background of Israel's Military Elite," by Oren Barak and Eyal Tsur. The authors, working with a database that they compiled, analyze the personal backgrounds of high-ranking officers in the Israel Defense Forces (IDF).

• "The Potential Impact of Palestinian Nonviolent Struggle on Israel: Preliminary Lessons and Projections for the Future," by Omri Arens and Edward Kaufman makes the argument that a "massive, organized, and sustained nonviolent Palestinian resistance" has the best chance of success for Palestinians seeking to establish a Palestinian state.

• "Factors Influencing Military-Media Relations in Turkey," by F. Michael Wuthrich. This article examines the sometimes cozy and sometimes contentious relationship between the Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) and Turkey's mass media, seeking to explain the factors behind the TAF's "informal mechanisms of power."
• "Democratic Islamization in Pakistan and Turkey: Lessons for the Post-Arab Spring Muslim World," by Juris Pupcenoks looks at two previous case studies, Pakistan and Turkey, and extrapolates some lessons applicable to Islamist political participation in Egypt, Tunisia, and other countries affected by the "Arab Awakening."
• "What the Social Sciences Can Tell Policy-Makers in Yemen," by Robert E. Mitchell emphasizes a theme that is close to our core mission here at the Middle East Institute: understanding the importance of a thorough and nuanced understanding of a country’s social and cultural context as critical tools in the formation of policy.
• The book review article in this issue, by As’ad Ghanem, deals with five recent books on Palestinians in Israel within the Green Line, the people usually referred to as Israeli Arabs, and their changing roles and attitudes.

Lynch on Jordan

Marc Lynch, who watches Jordan more closely than most of us, has a post called "Jordan: Forever at the Brink," with a rather startling conclusion:

The long history of the regime's surviving such frustrated hopes and failed reforms would suggest that this too shall pass. But Jordan's Palace should not be so confident. The spread of protest into new constituencies, the rising grievances of the south, the intensifying identity politics, the struggling economy, and the pervasive fury at perceived official corruption create a potent brew. The violent dispersal of an attempted Amman sit-in last March shocked activists and broke their momentum, but the protest movement has proven resilient and creative. I would rank Jordan today only below Bahrain as at risk of a sudden escalation of political crisis -- at which point the impossible would in retrospect look inevitable indeed. 

Read the whole thing.

Last-Minute Netanyahu-Mofaz Deal Scuttles Elections, Upends Israeli Political Scene

In the early hours of Tuesday (tomorrow) morning, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and opposition leader Shaul Mofaz reportedly agreed on a government of national unity, canceling September elections after the Knesset had already passed the first reading of a motion to disperse (dissolve itself). Reports from Haaretz here and The Jerusalem Post here.

The immediate deal appears to give Kadima the right to work on modification of the Tal law, which involves exemption of haredi Yeshiva students from military service, and which has been declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court. 

If, as initial reports indicate, Mofaz may become a Minister without Portfolio, which may seem odd since Kadima actually has more seats than Likud; on the other hand, Kadima was expected to lose heavily if elections were held.

How this may affect the threat of military action against Iran, which Mofaz opposes, remains to be seen. It also may lead to a moderation of the government's policies overall. One interesting issue will be the role of Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beitenu Party, which has been the second largest in the government.

There is some political sense, however, in avoiding elections for now, as both Kadima and Likud might have stood to lose seats; in any event Netanyahu avoids having to campaign this year. But the eleventh-hour deal on the brink of Knesset dissolution came as a surprise, and if it holds — uncertain at this point I suspect — and doesn't unravel, it will transform the political scene.

If more details emerge tomorrow, I may have more to say,

Queen Visits Aden in 1954: "a Model of Colonial Development"

Since this is Queen Elizabeth II's Diamond Jubilee year marking 60 years on the throne, a reminder of what the world (and she) looked like in the early years: an old Pathé newsreel of the Queen visiting Aden ("a model of colonial development") back in 1954.

A Turkish Enclave Deep Inside Syria

Turkish Soldiers at Tomb (Wikipedia)

 

 

Several papers, including Hurriyet Daily News,  have run this story about how Turkish soldiers still guard a tomb that is a small island of sovereign Turkish territory deep within Syria, despite the ongoing upheavals in Syria. I'd thought of posting on this once a while back, as it's the kind of obscure historical sidelight I enjoy dropping in from time to time, but as far as I can tell I never did, and now the Associated Press beat me to it. So, better late than never, I'll take note of it.

Location

It's the tomb, or at least the reputed tomb, of Suleyman Shah, grandfather of Osman who founded the Ottoman Empire. He is said to have drowned in the Euphrates at Qal‘at Ja‘bar, and the tomb believed to be his was honored during Ottoman times. In the 1921 Treaty of Ankara between the Turkish Republic and France (the Mandatory Power for Syria), the tomb was declared to be sovereign Turkish soil, an extraterritorial enclave within Syria. When the tomb was threatened with inundation by the waters of Lake Asad, the tomb and its extraterritorial status moved some distance to the north.

A GCC Spotter's Guide

This is suddenly all over social media and I'm unsure how long it's been around, but The Arabist and many others have picked up on it:

More Arab Bagpipes: The Tunisian Mezoued

Back in 2009 and 2010, this blog posted several posts about Arab bagpipes — both the popularity in many countries of Scottish bagpipes and the indigenous bagpipes of several parts of North Africa and the Middle East, complete with music videos.

Now the website Tunis-Live has a piece on bagpipes and the Mezoued genre of traditional music: "Tunisian bagpipes: 'Mezoued' Still Resonates in Tunisia."

Their chosen video shows a Mezoued style singer but does not emphasize the bagpipe:



So for a better look at the pipe itself I'll add this:

Handicapping the OTHER Egyptian Election: the Coptic Pope

With the Egyptian Presidential electoral race a confused mess, what about the other major leadership race in the country: the selection of a new Coptic Pope? Since Pope Shenouda III died in March, the hierarchy and followers of the largest Christian denomination in the Middle East have been gearing up for the election of the 118th Pope of Alexandria and Patriarch of Preaching of Saint Mark.

With the end of the 40-day mourning period for Shenouda last month, the process of nominations for the papal throne has begun. Recently a church spokesman indicated that there were already 14 names of bishops and priests placed in nomination, with nominations open until May 17. As is traditional the Acting Pope or locum tenens, Bishop Bakhomious, has refused nomination as he will oversee the process.

I discussed the overall election process just after Shenouda died. The process will identify nominees and winnow them down to a final three (or possibly four) candidates. These names will be placed in a box on the high altar of the Cathedral of Saint Mark, and a randomly chosen child will be blindfolded and will draw one name. This so-called "altar lot" is seen as guaranteeing that the Holy Spirit oversees the final choice, though the hierarchy and the faithful have chosen the candidates.

The Holy Synod: Is the Next Pope One of These Men?

Just as Roman Catholics like to speculate about papal candidates prior to a Papal Conclave, so Copts tend to do the same before their Papal election. In Italy, potential candidates for Pope are popularly known as papabile, a word I have always thought should be translated as "Popables" or something similar. Copts have their own discussions of potential candidates.

The Middle East News Agency (MENA) recently identified the bishops it called the top three candidates; there seems to be a general agreement these three are the most prominent, so I thought I'd briefly discuss them here. If you want a broader range of potential Popes, see this group of profiles by Hani Labib. Or you can browse the biographies of the members of the Holy Synod. (Mostly Arabic.)

The three identified by MENA and most other discussions as the front-runners (though they may not turn out to be the three whose names go into the lot box) are Metropolitan Bishoy, Bishop Musa, and Bishop Yuannis. Two are in their 70s and would be unlikely to enjoy the 40-year reign Shenouda did.

All are bishops. An ancient tradition of the Church held that the Pope should be chosen from the monks, not from the bishops, but over the 19th and 20th centuries this was neglected. Shenouda was a General Bishop, which was considered less controversial than choosing the bishop of a geographic diocese. Of these three supposed front-runners, one (Bishoy) is a diocesan bishop (and also holds general jurisdiction as General Secretary of the Holy Synod); the other two are general bishops). Some will prefer to choose a monk, but the reality of the modern church is that the bishops tend to be better known in the church as a whole than all but the most famous monks.

Metropolitan Bishoy

Metropolitan Bishoy

Bishoy, who is 70, is General Secretary of the Holy Synod and Metropolitan of Damietta and Abbot of the Monastery of Saint Demiana, is one of the best-known figures in the Church as well as one of the most senor Metropolitan bishops. He is also a lightning rod of controversy, having frequently offended Muslims and non-Coptic Christians with his statements. I've discussed him before, and he has long maintained a bilingual website, though it seems to be offline now, perhaps due to the election. He is perhaps the best=known of the senior bishops, and one with the highest media profile. As General Secretary of the Holy Synod since 1985, he is also well-known to the other bishops and abbots.

Bishoy has made a number of statements through the years that have alienated Muslims, including a remark that non-Coptic Egyptians were "guests" in the country; he has also written critiques of the Qur'an that offended Muslims. With the rise of Islamist politics, a Pope with a history of confronting Islam could make the Church's already awkward position worse. In addition, Bishoy publicly supported the succession of Gamal Mubarak to the Presidency (as did Shenouda), which hardly makes him an appealing figure post-revolution. Nor are his relations with other Christians smooth, despite being in charge of outreach to other churches: he has questioned whether Catholics and Eastern Orthodox can be saved (though Shenouda worked hard at improving relations with both communions). He has indicated that a Copt who marries a Protestant is committing adultery.

So, while he is well-known and very high-profile, he also has high negatives.

Bishop Musa
Bishop Musa, 74, General Bishop for Youth Affairs, is another popular figure with an important distinction:

Bishop Musa

he was the only senior member of the Coptic hierarchy to openly support the revolutionaries prior to the fall of Husni Mubarak in a series of newspaper articles. Founder of the bishopric for youth affairs and an active writer, preacher, and spokesman, he is considered much more conciliatory and less confrontational than Bishoy. He would likely be seen as a figure who would seek consensus.

Bishop Yuannis

Bishop Yuannis is only 52 years old and thus is more likely to have a lengthy papacy should he be chosen.

Bishop Yuannis

He was the Papal Secretary to Shenouda, and has been very active in Church affairs and as an administrator. He is also said to have had good relations with state institutions, which could make him a good liaison with the government. Some consider him ambitious, and his closeness to Shenouda may be seen by some as a qualification and by others as an impediment.

If other candidates emerge as the process evolves, I'll talk about them here.

Damned if You Do, Damned if You Don't, Damned if You Sit on the Fence ...

We've talked a number of times about the whole "Arab Gulf" versus "Persian Gulf" debate (if that's the right word for it). (Another post here.) While many Arabs prefer to call the body of water "the Arab Gulf," despite centuries in which they called it Khalij Fars, this makes Iranians irrational with fury. Some folks try to avoid controversy by just calling it "the Gulf," but Iranians have caught on to that as a sneaky way of avoiding saying "Persian."

So, apparently, Google Maps decided the better part of valor was just to not label the thing at all. (Google Earth, on the other hand, apparently uses both names.) But that didn't get past the Iranians either, who are now protesting.
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More Violence in Cairo

There's been more violence, and apparently at least one more death, in Cairo today. Demonstrators seeking to reach the Ministry of Defense have apparently fallen back. The Army has used water cannon, but there are also reports of live ammunition fire.

These clashes seem quite different from late last year in Muhammad Mahmoud and Kasr el Aini. The Salafis seem to be the core, though there are secular revolutionaries in the protest, too. Continuing violence could still threaten the (promised) transition. Oh, yes:

 From Al Jazeera English:

Tunisian Court Fines Network for Blasphemy; Happy World Press Freedom Day

Yesterday a Tunisian court ruled against the television channel Al-Nessma and imposed a fine for "blasphemy" over the showing of the award-winning animated film Persepolis. A roundup on the subject here. The timing was impeccable, since today is World Press Freedom Day.
 
This trailer, in French, for the film includes part of the "blasphemous" scene at about 35-39 seconds. The little girl imagines talking to God, who's shown as an old man with a white robe and a white beard:

Michelangelo's in Trouble in Tunis

It's a fairly conventional portrayal of the deity in Western art (think Michelangelo's Creation of Adam), but, of course, violates the absolute Muslim prohibition of any anthropomorphic portrayal of God.

And the Union of Tunisian Journalists has just issued a report on Press Freedom in Tunisia. Among the findings:

According to the report, a significant number of Tunisian journalists have been subjected to both physical and verbal abuse by police, politicians, and citizens with official political affiliations. The report stated that incidents of verbal and physical abuse occur, on average, once per week.

The report described these attacks as a concerted “campaign against media.” National political figures, such as Interim Prime Minister Hamadi Jebali, were accused of constantly lambasting the media, particularly following the appointment of high-ranking officials within Tunisia’s state-run media network. The report also accused the government of not responding to incidents of assault against journalists with seriousness.

Another section of the report listed journalists who were brought to court for publishing controversial material, such as the cases involving Nessma TV and Ettounisia. The report collected testimony from branches of the union located in Tunis, Sidi Bouzid, and Sfax, as well as the coastal, southwest, and interior regions of the country.

Happy World Press Freedom Day. And remember, Tunisia's one of the best, since the Revolution.

SCAF Says Elections Will Be Held on Time, But Race is Still a Mess

Egypt's Presidential elections will be held on time, despite yesterday's violent confrontations near the Ministry of Defense, and the transfer of power to an elected civilian government will take place on schedule by July 1, Egypt's Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) announced yesterday.

The election so far has hardly been a model for other democratic transitions. I've been trying to decide whether "debacle" or "fiasco" comes closer, and remain undecided. Ursula Lindsey opts for "fraught and chaotic." Three major front-runners, of course, were disqualified. The disqualification of Hazem Abu Isma‘il, the Salafi candidate, led to the Ministry of Defense confrotations, and to Salafi demonstrators cheering Muhammad al-Zawahiri, brother of Al-Qa‘ida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri, and, on the day after the anniversary of Bin Ladin's killing, chanting, "Listen, Obama, we are all Usama." Offhand I'm guessing that is not the best way to get their candidate back in the race.

When the Muslim Brotherhood's chosen candidate, Khairat al-Shater, was also disqualified, the Brotherhood was ready: just before the deadline, it had registered a second candidate, Freedom and Justice Party leader Muhammad Morsi. Morsi has not caught fire as a candidate, and has suffered from a standing joke about him being a "spare tire," due to the last minute change. The Salafi al-Nour Party, which might have endorsed Abu Isma‘il if he had been allowed to run, declined to endorse Morsi instead, and gave its nod to "liberal" Islamist Abdel Moneim Abu'l-Futuh. Abu'l-Futuh has been endorsed not only by al-Nour but by al-Gama‘a al-Islamiyya and the Wasat party, a broad spectrum of Islamist opinion from the hard core ex-jihadi to the quasi-liberal. He also has some support from liberals and even revolutionaries who, while they may be suspicious of his newfound "liberalism," (he was until last year a senior Muslim Brotherhood figure), see him as better than the other religious candidates and at least not a remnant of the old regime.

Because with the disqualifications, it's increasingly looking like a race between Abu'l-Futuh and Amr Moussa, the former Foreign Minister and Arab League Secretary-General. His Arab League post meant he did not serve under Mubarak in his last, and worst, years, but he is still a fixture of the system dating back a generation or more. Former Air Force Chief Ahmad Shafiq, Mubarak's last Prime Minister (disqualified, then reinstated, but with his candidacy still a little shaky) is seen by some as the military's choice.

Overshadowing everything else is the limbo into which constitution-writing has fallen. The Constituent Assembly named by Parliament was blocked by the courts and was collapsing anyway as members quit. But the formula for a new assembly is being hammered out and SCAF is still on record as wanting the Constitution in place by the transition. So we have a case where a President is being elected, but his exact powers are not yet clear as there's no Constitution. If SCAF gets to call the shots on the Constitution, the President may find himself relatively weak and the military looking over his shoulder.

It was already literally a bloody mess, and yesterday saw literal bloodshed. The first round of voting is still three weeks away, and it may prove to be a bumpy ride. Come to think of it, it already is.

Visiting a Jerusalem Landmark

Here's a recent Haaretz description of a visit to a place most people who know Jerusalem have seen, but few have visited: the elegant building which served as Government House, the British High Commissioner's Headquarters during the Mandate era and which, since 1948, has served as UN headquarters in Jerusalem. From 1948 to 1967, it sat right on the ceasefire lines, and there was a firefight there during the 1967 war. It's on a ridgeline south of the Old City, on a rise known in Christian tradition as the Hill of Evil Counsel.

David Roberts on Gulf Unity Talk

Of late there has been talk of greater unity within the Gulf Cooperation Council, with serious discussion of some sort of Saudi-Bahraini unity as a starting point. The idea is Saudi, and would institutionalize the Saudi intervention last year in Bahrain (justified by portraying the Bahtraini opposition as Iranian stooges). David Roberts (of The Gulf Blog) explores some of the implications at Foreign Policy's Mideast Channel.

It's particularly interesting that there are apparently some within the Bahraini ruling family who are considering this idea, though it would seem to surrender Bahrain's sovereignty to Big Brother next door. That tells you something right there.

Likud Submits Knesset Dissolution Bill; Elections by September?

The Likud Party today submitted a bill for dissolution of the Knesset, the first move towards long-predicted early elections. The motion could pass next week and lead to dissolution by May 13; Likud reportedly wants the elections to be held on September 4, and Labor, Yisrael Beitenu and others agree; other parties reportedly favor August 28, and Kadima, which actually has the most seats is said to favor September 16.

In any event, as had already seemed increasingly probable, it's clear Israel is about to move into an election cycle. This will obviously have implications for tensions with Iran, and probably for the US election cycle as well. More on those subjects as things get rolling.

Cairo: The Battle of Abbasiyya

A day of clashes leaving multiple fatalities makes today probably the deadliest in Cairo since the first of the year, hardly a good omen for the Presidential elections. What began as a sit-in by supporters of disqalified Presidential candidate Hazem Abu Isma‘il near the Ministry of Defense has grown over the past several days into a series of clashes between demonstrators and baltagiya, the "thugs" of uncertain (but, the demonstrators believe, official) patronage, and today's clashes were lethal. Reports range from 11 dead (Ahram Online cited above, Al Jazeera English) to 20 dead (BBC). A mass demonstration in sympathy with those attacked was marching through Abbasiyya this afternoon.

There is already talk of moving the weekly demonstration in Tahrir Square to Abbasiyya. That could amount to an open confrontation with the military. Anger appears to be building once again, and the implications for the Presidential elections are unclear but may prove significant.

From Al Jazeera English:

For Those of You in DC: MEI's Book Sale

I should have mentioned this sooner, I know, but MEI's book sale is on:

The Middle East Institute is having a book sale!  Culled from the extensive collection of the Middle East Institute Library, items for sale include books, journals, and magazines on the Middle East and ranging in subject from history, political science, and religion to fiction, travelogues, and culture.   More than 1,500 books from throughout the Institute's 65-year history will be available for purchase.  Most items cost just $1 or $2!

Wednesday May 2-Friday May 4
11:30am-5:30pm
1761 N Street, NW
Washington, DC 20036

If you're in the DC area or own your own private jet, come on by.

Please, White House, Next Time Tell the Embassy ...

Twitter this afternoon:

He really is there, or at least at Bagram. They could turn on the news. Maybe they mean he's not actually in Kabul, but that seems a bit legalistic.

You Were Expecting Maybe a Camel? A Kangaroo at the Pyramids

Via various Egypt hands on Facebook, originally from Civilization of Ancient Egypt on Facebook, a kangaroo at the pyramids:

Apparently  the ANZAC camp at the pyramids in 1915, just before Gallipoli (and the "Battle of the Wozzer"). I am assuming the 'roo is a regimental or company mascot.

Great Maps from Gulf 2000

The Gulf 2000 site at Columbia University has long been a great resource for reliable information about the Gulf, and its maps section has always been useful, but it now features even more great maps by Dr. Michael Izady. Gary Sick, founder of Gulf 2000, also calls attention to this post at Geocurrents, though you may prefer to just browse at the direct link. Not for commercial reproduction.

Below, language families of the Middle East.

Blogging Will Be Late Today

I'll be busy with other duties till later today. Posts should resume in late afternoon.