Saudi Campaign Intensifying (in Media at Least)

Tomorrow's headlines in Al-Watan are full of coverage of the campaign — now noticeably characterized as "by air and land" — against the Houthis. For English readers, here's an Arab News article. The Saudi media, at least, seems to be at war. Saudi Gazette ran the (file?) photo showing heavy field artillery I've reproduced here.

At this point I think I'm going to limit my comments to a few observations:

• I cannot recall any time since the invasion of Kuwait and subsequent Desert Storm in which the Saudi media has seemed so militant.
• Although the media continue to insist they have only conducted airstrikes inside Saudi territory, the talk about an "air and land" campaign to "secure the borders" could leave open a certain possibility of hot-pursuit; and if they're actually using those field pieces in the picture (105mm or above towed howitzers, I think) they can shell well inside Yemen (11 or more kilometers?) from the border.
  
• As a commenter noted on my earlier post, there have been many reports emphasizing the alleged Iranian involvement with the Houthis; the anti-Iranian drumbeat deserves attention.

On that note, unless something major demands my attention, I'm gone for the weekend.

Thoughts on Mahmoud ‘Abbas

Mahmoud ‘Abbas' announcement that he does not intend to run for re-election is one of the two big stories of the day, along with the Saudi border clashes. I already noted over a week ago when he started to make noises about not running; Marc Lynch then and again today has expressed the idea that this could shake things up, and adds:

Most of the Palestinian and Arab commentary I've seen since his announcement falls into three basic trends: the first thinks he's bluffing, attempting to leverage his weakness into pressure on the U.S. and Israel; the second thinks it's irrelevant, because the elections will not actually be held in January; and the third is cheering his departure, and hoping that it will lead to a collective admission that the PA's strategy has failed. The three perspectives are obviously not mutually exclusive. When I asked leading Palestinian academic Salim Tamari yesterday about the impact it would have on the peace process, he just looked at me quizically and said "what peace process?"

A reasonable question. I confess to still being among the skeptics, in that I'm not sure he really means it. He said he had "no desire" to run; that suggests he could be open to persuasion. If he does mean it, it would indeed reshuffle the deck, but in whose favor? It's always dangerous to bluff with a weak hand, and I fear ‘Abbas' hand is pretty weak at the moment.

January elections, I must say, seem less likely now: Hamas was already refusing to hold them in Gaza, and now Fatah has no immediate candidate.

On Abu Mazen: More Coming

Between the Saudi airstrikes and Abu Mazen saying he won't run again, it's a busy morning. I'll return to the Abu Mazen story by sometime this afternoon. Stay tuned.

The Kingdom Strikes Back: Going After the Houthis

I decided not to blog last night on the reports of Saudi air strikes inside Yemen; the Saudis aree now saying that they are only bombing inside Saudi territory. In any event, it seems clear that the Saudis are now serious about joining in the fight against the Houthis. The Saudi media, in fact, seems to be doing something akin to wartime propaganda, which is rather unusual for the Kingdom.

So the Houthis now find themselves between a Yemeni hammer and a Saudi anvil, and the Saudis are using their Air Force, which is much superior to Yemen's, at least on the Saudi side of the border. (The Houthis charge the Saudis have bombed inside Yemen.)

It's likely to get interesting. Unless you're a Houthi.

MEI Event Video: Gulf Capital and the Rise of Islamic Finance

Another MEI video, this one from October 6, has been online for a few days but I failed to link to it till now. Better late than never: Aamir Rahman on "Gulf Capital and Islamic Finance: The Rise of New Global Players." Here's Part 1 of 6; you can find the others from this one:

Israeli Seizure of Arms Ship

Israel is making a big deal out of its seizure of a ship off Cyprus carrying Iranian arms to Hizbullah (I am, here, accepting their interpretation). In fact, Netanyahu has told Israeli Embassies abroad to publicize the matter. Here's another article.

And, while I'm not following Netanyhahu's orders to his embassies, in the interest of fairness and giving you something to watch, here's the video of the seizure:

Sand Shortage in Arabia! No, Really.

"Critical Sand Shortage in the Gulf." No, really. Bahrain's construction industry depends on imports of sand and gravel. They import it from Saudi Arabia, but Saudi Arabia is banning sand exports as of the end of November, because they're worried about running out. You really can't make this stuff up.

I seem to recall that back during Desert Shield/Desert Storm someone wrote a story (I suspect maybe P.J. O'Rourke) about how the Army was importing sand into Saudi Arabia because the local sand wasn't up to army standards for filling sandbags.

The link for the sand story above, by the way, is to a brand new blog called Suq al-Mal: The Financial Sector in the GCC. Much of the analysis is beyond my financial savvy, but it's well done and the sand story surely deserves our attention.

Protests on Embassy Seizure Day

As I noted earlier yesterday was the 30th anniversary of the seizure of the US Embassy in Tehran. It also proved to be the latest opportunity for protest in the streets: and I won't even try to tlink to all of it: google it or check YouTube: it's everywhere. This video, in which the crowds tear down a billboard of Khamene'i, is a useful sample:



Marg bar . . . uh, who was that again exactly?

Here's another, though the lack of context doesn't tell us how public this was:

Houthis Cross Saudi Border

The Saudi media for tomorrow morning are up in arms about a raid across the Saudi-Yemeni border by Houthi rebels. The simmering tensions along the border may just have crossed a line (namely the border) and this could escalate. Here's Al-Jazeera in English on the story, and here's Arab News, but there's much more if you go to the Arabic press: Al-Watan in particular is full of stories so I'm linking to the front page rather than to individual stories. Their map is stolen (with full acknowledgment) on the upper right of this post. For those who don't read Arabic, the white parts to the right of the heavy line are Yemen and the colored parts (as well as the white parts with detail) are Saudi (the colored part is Jazan).
[Map from tomorrow's Al-Watan.]

This bears watching. The Saudi press is increasingly blaming Iran for the Houthis, as is the Yemeni government, and the two countries, usually at odds or at least awkward in their relations, are moving quickly towards some kind of common position here. More as this develops.

More than 700 Posts

Just a minor benchmark to note. I see from my archive on the sidebar that I have posted 708 posts this year (this should be 709). I suppose I should have noted 700, but it rolled right past.

The Hostage Crisis, 30 Years On

Thirty years ago today the US Embassy in Iran was occupied by radical students and the 444-day hostage crisis began. Obviously this is going to get a fair amount of nostalgic coverage, so I won't dwell overmuch on it.

But until the seizure of the Embassy, US relations with the Iranian revolutionary regime, while awkward, were not openly hostile. The Embassy takeover both radicalized the revolutionary regime, pushing it deeper into full clerical rule, and isolated it from the world in ways that the revolution itself had not done. Because the Embassy seizure so clearly violated the basic rules of international diplomacy — which seemed, at the time, exceptional, since the far greater outrages of later years were not yet anticipated — the West was caught off guard. It was the beginning of a long string of asymmetric attacks on Western norms and standards, not just by Iran but by every movement challenging the traditional world order. In the mind of the West, the Iranians were breaking the rules. The students, in effect, said we never agreed to your rules. Thirty years later, we haven't come that far: the nuclear standoff is parallel in many ways: the West says, you can't have nuclear weapons, even though Israel and Pakistan do; Iran essentially says, who made those rules?

The fact that our relations with Iran are still as rocky as they are shows that neither we nor they have really been able to escape the mindset created by the hostage crisis 30 years ago, though there have been gestures from both sides (from Iran during the Khatami Presidency, more recently from Obama) seeking to break out of the straitjackets we have worn in both countries since the Embassy takeover. The timing has been wrong; we aren't there yet. In some respects it seems a long time ago: the Carter Administration is mostly a distant memory, and ancient history to a lot of young professionals today. In other ways the scar tissue still seems fresh, picked raw anew by the nuclear dispute, the Iranian election fiasco, and other recent events.

One of the sadder sidelights of the hostage crisis, I fear, is the argument still heard that if one's adversaries violate international law, that means we don't have to play by our own self-imposed rules either. That's the road to Abu Ghraib and Guantanamo, but it isn't the traditional American way. The rules are there not because everyone respects them, but because they represent who we are, or think we are in our best moments.

Many of the former hostages are going to be interviewed today by the media; it's ironic that many of them were, and are, among our most experienced Iran hands.

For Conspiracy Theorists Only

Warning. Satire Ahead. Do Not Link to This as Truth.

Whoa. I don't believe in conspiracy theories. As a graduate of a Jesuit institution (Georgetown), neither my Illuminati Masters nor their Knights Templars allies nor Opus Dei allow me to discuss the real role of the Freemasons in hiding Barack Obama's birth certificate from the UFO grays, but there are some strange things going on out there:

• Via Abu Muqawama, and from there Politico, this photograph of Hillary Clinton, George Mitchell, Jeffrey Feltman and a woman with black hair whose face doesn't show (WHAT ARE THEY HIDING?) on the Secretary of State's plane, showing they are all sitting around a copy of Dan Brown's latest book, towards which Mitchell seems to be making a prayerful gesture with his hands, and which I gather is about how Washington is built to a secret Freemason design. WHAT ARE THEY NOT TELLING US? Is Brown's book providing the guidelines for their Middle East policy?
  

AND WHAT ABOUT THIS!?!:

• Keys to Kafka's Tel Aviv Safe Handed to Estate Executor. Oh, I know, it's actually a pretty boring story about literary legacies and such, but doesn't "Keys to Kafka's Tel Aviv Safe" have a wonderfully conspiratorial sound to it? Kafka (sublime paranoia: The Trial); Tel Aviv (Elders of Zion? Mossad?), and keys (whatever you want to make of them: maybe we could get the Pope in here with the keys of Peter, though I'm sure there are other sinister links: Skull and Bones perhaps?). Sorry the story is pretty boring, but for a certain type of conspiracy theorist it would be raw meat. Goebbels would have salivated over the headline. Oh, sorry, he would never have read Kafka, would he? (Though he was closer to a cockroach than Gregor Samsa ever was.) (Apologies to cockroaches.)
  

Unfortunately, given the part of the world we deal with, I guess I have to formally note that this post is satirical. That means I'm just kidding. Please don't link to it to prove something sinister. You can link if you think it's funny, though.

And for the first time since I started this blog, I am turning comments OFF on this post only. I have a bad feeling about what I might get otherwise, if people Google in without looking at the rest of the blog . If you like it, link to it, but I don't really need a lot of humor-impaired folks agreeing with the intentionally humorous post above.

And if they do, I'll tell the Illuminati.

Female Muftis in Dubai?

Okay, this will cause a few exploding heads here and there in the Muslim world, assuming it's true: from the UAE newspaper The National:

DUBAI // The UAE will appoint what are likely to be the world’s first state-sanctioned female muftis next year, after the Grand Mufti announced details yesterday of plans to recruit and train them.

Six Emirati women are being considered for the training programme, said Dr Ahmed al Haddad, who is also the head of the Islamic Affairs and Charitable Activities Department. Once accepted they will begin the course, which will last several months, early next year.

The move follows a fatwa issued by Dr al Haddad in February that sanctioned women’s role as muftis. In May, he called on qualified Emirati women to apply for the programme, which includes instruction in Sharia law and legal thinking . . .

The status of female muftis has caused controversy within the religious establishment elsewhere in the Muslim world, with Egypt’s Al Azhar University, a powerful centre of Sunni scholarship, rejecting the possibility of women becoming grand muftis.

However, Dr al Haddad said that debate did not affect whether women should serve in other roles.

“The controversy over female muftis is not necessarily over this point, but about whether or not a woman should be appointed as the grand mufti of a state,” he said. “And that is not what we’re trying to do at this point.”

Well, yeah. Let's start small. But this seems pretty revolutionary. Who'd a thunk that the first muftis (Islamic scholars qualified to give legal opinions) in the Arab world would be in a Gulf state? (Well, yes, I know Dubai is not typical, but still.)

Perhaps not at all surprisingly, this has been noticed in the Saudi press.

Kind Words About the Blog: New Sidebar for Good Reviews

As I noted in passing earlier, Marc Lynch was kind enough to use the word "wonderful" about this blog today, and as someone who's in his first year of blogging (though white of beard and long of tooth), kind words from a veteran like Abu Aardvark are like praise from a Jedi Master (and I don't mean Walid Bek, or even the hero of the Iranian opposition, Obi-Wan Karroubi), and I'm also grateful for the equally kind words many others have used in linking to me. I've started a little "Kind Words from Others" over in the sidebar, for those who may be coming to the blog for the first time and wondering about its bona fides. Thank you for the friendly comments. It's on the right sidebar below the feed and Twitter buttons and above the links, blogroll, archives and categories. I may move it around if that doesn't work. And I may change the title (does it sound too much like Blanche DuBois?).

(Modestly clears throat.) I can make room for more if need be.

The NDP Conference: Not Much to Say

I haven't written anything about the big weekend conference of Egypt's ruling National Democratic Party, which finally wrapped up yesterday. I'm still at something of a loss. Did anything happen? Since I have way better things to do than read or watch several days of rhetoric about development and progress, like most people I mostly wanted to know what the President and Gamal had to say. Mostly, not much. The President is still unwilling to tip his hand about succession. Gamal and key allies like Ahmad ‘Izz gave speeches denouncing the opposition for criticizing the NDP. I've only watched short clips of Gamal's speech, but it seems to confirm that as a stump politician, he's a good banker. This is no Nasser. (Or even Sadat, who had once been an actor in his youth.)

Actually, perhaps the quintessential headline is this one from Al-Masry al-Youm's English pages: Privatization, Agriculture Discussed at NDP Conference. (If you click the link and read the story, do post a comment to tell me what it was about. I fell asleep at the headline.) In other words, if you were expecting the Conference to shed light on the succession — well, by now you should have known better. Still, international Arab and Western media were watching, just in case.

On the other hand, if this was some sort of dry run for Gamal to show his leadership skills, I'm not sure he convinced anyone, perhaps including the one man who really does have the vote. The attacks on the opposition suggest not so much that the opposition is powerful — the state has it carefully tamed and circumscribed — as that the ruling party has thin skins. The various trial balloons for alternatives — ‘Omar Suleiman, Muhammad ElBaradei, ‘Amr Musa — in recent weeks may be an indicator that a lot of people in the Establishment are uncomfortable with Gamal's inexperience and lack of charisma too. The next two years (or less?) will be interesting.

Marc Lynch on Mustafa Mahmoud

Marc Lynch today (after passing me a nice compliment in the opening line: thanks) notes the passing of popular Egyptian writer on Islamic themes Mustafa Mahmoud. It's worth your attention.

Let Them Eat Croissants

I do plan reasonably soon to blog about a couple of major things going on in Egypt, the National Democratic Party Conference (in which Husni Mubarak was coy and Gamal attacked the bad old opposition), and the various things going on inside the Muslim Brotherhood. But in the meantime, in a country where the gap between rich and poor has been widening for years, I must call your attention to the review of a hotel called the InterContinental CityStars. (What are CityStars?) Warning: this is something of a rant. At least I warned you.

A few key quotes:

InterContinental CityStars feels slightly disorienting. What would constitute garish décor — sphinxes in the lobby’s fountain, golden snakes on the ceiling — is softened by beige tones, attractive natural lighting and the sound of falling water; as if ancient Egypt were an ordinary theme for a five-star hotel.

Primarily accommodating business travelers with its Nasr City proximity to the airport, perhaps the hotel’s designers guessed that their clients might not have the chance to visit real Egyptian sites.

Providing a Pharaonic aesthetic, food and a huge pyramid out back, the hotel offers an effortless version of the Egyptian experience. The casino evokes the famed Luxor Hotel in Vegas. Baudrillard would have a field day: a hotel in Egypt modeled on a hotel in the US modeled on an ancient Egyptian religious site.

At your service

However, should you have even half a day to spare during your stay, the newly renovated Concierge Lounge can book a trip with partner American Express Travel to the Pyramids of Giza, the famous Khan El-Khalili bazaar, or the Egyptian Museum. Anything you want, really, including limousine service all the way to Abu Simbel, if you’re ready to pay the price, (though concierge Mohamed Fawzy suggests flying).

The Concierge Lounge, first of its kind in the Middle East and Europe, transforms the often harried exchange at the concierge desk to a personalized service. Sit down below live feed flight information from the three terminals at Cairo International Airport, and one of the five concierges will assist you with international travel arrangements, airport pick-up, sojourns into Egypt, forgotten laptop chargers, etc. (Forgotten running shoes, unfortunately, they could not provide, though they suggested I take myself to CityStars Mall through the hotel’s private entrance.)

I don't know why I keep thinking Versailles and Marie Antoinette thoughts through all this. I know it brings tons of money into the country. But unlike Las Vegas (which, once you actually see the people in the hotel casinos, you realize is populated by lower to middle class folks from middle America, living it up), this is alien to all but the most stratospheric Egyptian elites, and is really for foreigners. And the decor is pharaonic. Those of you who know Arabic may recall that the word fir‘awn in Arabic, and particularly in the Qur'an, is an emblem of tyranny, power, and alienation from Godly things. (And not in a good way, either.) Oh, and:

I’ve never seen so many choices at a breakfast buffet. The tasty croissants, omelets and sausages were on par with any five-star hotel, while the Egyptian offerings, from fuul (beans) to tameyah (falafel) to feteer (phylo dough pancakes) — all of which you would find offered on a Cairo street for pennies — provided another reminder that this was not Anywhere, Planet Earth.

You'll note that the reviewer explained what the Egyptian food is, not what croissants, omelets and sausages are. Years ago I tried the ful at the Sheraton Heliopolis. I doubt if many people do. It's better downtown.

And tameya's not falafel. They look and taste pretty much alike, but tameya's made from ground fava beans, falafel from ground chickpeas. This ain't rocket science. But at least she referred to fateer as "pancakes," a poor analogy but not as grossly overused as the equally inaccurate "Egyptian pizza."

Not yet ready to storm the Bastille? How about:

The pyramid housing the health facilities evokes a temple dedicated to well-being. Particularly the basement floor, where a glass cube encases squash players in what would seem an ancient ritual.

If you don’t mind a lingering smell of chlorine, the ground floor lounge offers one of the hotel’s most peaceful hiding places. Techno music echoed from the workout facilities, where treadmill runners could entertain themselves with private TV monitors, or by watching swimmers in the pool surrounding the pyramid.

The spa, although equipped with hi-tech treatments such as the LPG Cellular M6 Key Module and Endermologie anti-cellulite, lacks the sense of sanctuary that would distinguish it from a dimly-lit clinic visit.

The refuge waits upstairs. Male and female Greek busts indicate the changing area and additional massage rooms. Passing through, (grab a cup of lemon water), you emerge in a sunlit chamber where three fountainheads gush into a huge co-ed jacuzzi and guests can doze in lounge chairs scattered through this semi-secret grotto.

Okay, I'm venting. I know it's for tourists, not the fellahin. But really. There is of course no mention I could see of prices. I'm sure if you have to ask, you can't afford it, which rules me out.

And please don't tell me Dubai is worse. Of course it is, but wretched excess is the national pastime there. But this is Cairo. People are living in the cemeteries.

Okay. End of rant. Thank you for your time.

Belated addition a couple of days later: I only just realized how the "co-ed jacuzzi" line must be going over with the Muslim Brotherhood and lots of other folks. Just sayin'.

More on Saudi Arms Cache

Much more is appearing in the Saudi press on the arms cache found outside Riyadh. The newspaper Al-Riyadh has had quite a bit; there's a lot less available in English, so the links are in Arabic, though yesterday's post linked to an Arab News piece. Here's an article showing pictures of the arms, books, CDs, etc. captured. Besides the aforementioned AKs and magazines, there are a number of rocket propelled grenades there too. Here's a piece about the place where the arms were found. "From Hunting Birds to Hunting Terrorists": it's also known for getting rain in winter. Other articles with photos here.

Also of note is a GAO report dated September 24 but just called to my attention by one of my readers, on Saudi progress in countering terrorist financing in the Kingdom. Summary here and full report in PDF here.

Algerian Revolution Day: 55 Years On

I let this one get by me. Yesterday, November 1, was Algerian Revolution Day, and this year marked 55 years since the outbreak on the Toussaint rouge (bloody All Saints' Day) on November 1, 1954.

The Algerian war of 1954 to 1962 was one of the most dramatic episodes of the entire decolonization struggle in the colonial world. France considered Algeria as an integral part of France, though Algeria's Muslims were never really integrated into the colonial society.

Not only did the war mark the birth throes of the Algerian state, but it also transformed France, bringing down the Fourth Republic and bringing in Charles de Gaulle and the Fifth Republic. Seen by many of the pieds noirs as their champion in the beginning, they soon learned that de Gaulle had a bigger vision, and the Secret Army Organization (OAS) soon was targeting de Gaulle, who, however, ultimately guided the process towards the establishment of an independent Algeria.

The newly independent Morocco and Tunisia, as well as Nasser's Egypt, were all involved in providing external support of the revolutionary movement. Algeria's revolution was bloody and tore French society almost as deeply as Algerian; when it comes to "revolutions" in the Middle East, it is a real one, not just a military coup masquerading as a revolution. Fifty-five years on, Algerian independence seems an inevitability of history, but many French and pieds noirs settlers fought hard to prevent it.

Karzai: Elected. Now What?

After Dr. ‘Abdullah pulled out of the second round in Afghanistan, the election has been canceled and Karzai declared elected. The second round was supposed to increase perceptions of legitimacy. Now what?

Certainly the timing is awkward. The US Administration has been saying it will make a decision on the McChrystal request after the second round. Now, we have Karzai without the second round. Perhaps there's some sort of coalition deal in the wings, or Karzai will somehow reach out to ‘Abdullah, but this will not strengthen the hand of those who want to give McChrystal what he wants.

I, for one, would not like to be in the President's shoes. Afghanistan is playing out badly, and few of the options are attractive.