Israel's Yediot/Ynet Publishes New Revelations in the 1965 Ben Barka Assassination Case; Lengthy Story Then Disappears Down Memory Hole

Mehdi Ben Barka

Update: The story has reappeared under a new title, and I haven't compared the two.

Early Sunday morning Israel time the Ynet website, the English online site for Yediot Acharanot, published a lengthy article on the Israeli role in the 1965 disappearance and death of Moroccan dissident Mehdi Ben Barka, called "Secret History: How the Mossad became entangled in a political assassination."

You may note that I didn't link to the article. That is because within 24 hours, perhaps less, it disappeared from the website. 

The article, by investigative journalists Ronen Bergman and Shlomo Nakdimon, remained availble through Google cache last night, but now the cached version also brings up a page not found message.

Fortunately Le Monde had already interviewed one of the authors, (link is in French) and some Algerian  and Palestinian papers ran summaries, but the main story seems to have disappeared down a memory hole.

This is curious. The Israeli press is subject to military censorship, but articles must be cleared before publication. Did censorship clear it in error? Did somebody else spike the story?

If so, they must not understand the Internet. Even when someone manages to delete it from Google Cache, you can't be sure readers haven't already saved copies to the hard drives.

Readers like me.

Screencap of the story

I won't violate their copyright by quoting the story in full, but since it seems to have vanished I'll summarize it.

I previously wrote about the Ben Barka affair back in 2012. The disappearance of Ben Barka from the streets of Paris was a scandal mat the time. French investigations led to the jailing of a few French agents, and the involvement of Moroccan intelligence has long been established. Mossad's role has long been rumored, but with few details known.

Ahmad Dlimi

Bergman and Nakdimon begin by discussing Mossad's good relations with French intelligence dating from the days of the Algerian war, as well as their growing covert relations with Moroccan intelligence. They report that Morocco  provided Israel with full details of the 1965 Arab Summit in Casablanca, and in return asked for Israeli help in locating the exiled dissident, Mehdi Ben Barka.

They directly quote from interviews they had with the Mossad chief at the time, Meir Amit, prior to his death in 2009. According to Amit (as quoted in the article), Israel was willing to cooperate but did not want to get directly involved in a killing.

They helped the Moroccans locate Ben Barka, who traveled frequently, discovering he picked up mil from a kiosk in Geneva. This was conveyed to Moroccan Deputy Interior Minister Ahmed Dlimi. (The article spells it Dalimi, but Dlimi is standard in both English nd French.) But then:

But for the Moroccans, Israel's debt had not yet been paid. On October 1, 1965, they requested Mossad agents in Paris to rent them a hiding place and provide them with camouflage, makeup and fake passports. In addition, they wanted Israel to follow their target for them and advise them on how best to send Ben Barka to meet his maker.

According to the protocol of the meetings between Amit and [Prime Minister Levi] Eshkol, only on October 4 did Amit report to the prime minister about the Mossad's involvement. To sweeten the pill of what he was about to tell Eshkol, Amit began with good news, describing the valuable intelligence gathered by the Mossad at the summit in Casablanca. "I want to show you the information about the debates," Amit told Eshkol, and said that intelligence indicated that at that time, the armies of the Arab countries were not ready for war against Israel.

Then came the less good tidings: "What do they want?" Eshkol asked. Amit continued: "A very simple thing: Deliver Mehdi Ben Barka. We found him in Paris and King Hassan gave an order to kill him. They came to us and said: 'We do not want you to do it, but help us.'

Meir Amit

Israel agreed to provide five foreign passports, but they quote Amit as sayi[ng that Eshkol said to him in Yiddish, "It does not smell right to me."

Four days went by. On October 8, Amit told Eshkol: "So far, all is well. We are able to hold on. We are 'ducking' the issue."

But the Moroccans had no intention of "ducking" the issue. On October 12, Dalimi asked Israel for fake car license plates and a poisonous solution. Israel rejected the request for the license plates and suggested the use of rented cars, for which it would provide fake documentation. Dalmi also informed Israel that Oufkir had decided to postpone the operation until the end of October, but did not specify an exact date.

On October 13, 1965, Dalimi left France to return to Morocco, and Amit took this as a sign that the entire operation had been scrapped. "Thank God, they gave up on it," he told Eshkol on the same day.

Besides Amit, the report also cites the work of Dr. Shlomo Ben-Nun, an expert on Israeli-Moroccan relations.


Dlimi and his agents, with the help of French police acting on their own, kidnapped Ben Barka as he arrivved for a meeting at the famed Brasserie Lipp, They took him to an apartment on the outskirts ofn Paris and t]ortured him. The authors cite conflicting reports over whether the Mor0ccans asked Mossad for poison, but say the sources agree that Ben Barka died under torture. Mossad then assisted in disposing of the body in a forest outside Paris.

Muhammad Oufkir

Charkes de Gaulle was furious .at a kidnapping on the streets of Paris in broad daylight,  and reportedly demanded that King Hasan II hand over Dlimi and his superior, Interior Minister Muhammad Oufkir. On November 5, Amit reportedly told Eshkol, "The Moroccans killed Ben Barka. Israel had no physical connection to the act itself."

Much of this has been reported or rumored in the past. But the authors also discuss an internal Israeli blowback from the operation. According to them, Mossad's legendary "founding father," Isser Harel, retired but an adviser to Eshkol, entered the tale. They quote Harel (who died in 2003) as telling them before his death

When Harel heard of the Mossad involvement in the affair, he turned to prime minister Eshkol. Before his death, Harel described the conversation to us: "I told him (Eshkol): 'God sent me to protect you and you became terribly entangled. Amit lied to you all along. You told him not to get involved, and he was involved. Your situation is very grave. You had a consultant on this issue and you didn’t consult him. And it heightens your own responsibility, and now you have to resign.'

"Eshkol really begged for his life," Harel recounted. "I told him, in my opinion, you should appoint an inquiry commission and see who is responsible for this failure, and the findings of the investigation will decide whether you continue as prime minister. And as for Amit, you should know that he did not tell you the truth. You had an advisor and did not use him. Eshkol almost started crying ..."

Isser Harel

Eshkol refused to resign and refused to fire Amit, but continued to pursue the issue, leading to secret investigations and much infighting. Amit blamed Harel's jealousy of his successor. De Gaulle through Mossad's European headquarters out of Paris.

I can't testify to any of this and would normally have just referred you to the link. The whole story is much longer and more detailed than my summary.

As for Muhammad Oufkir, he was implicated in a plot to shoot down the King's plane in 1972, after which he committed suicide, or many believe "committed suicide." Ahmad Dlimi went on to become the hero of the war against POLISARIO in Western Sahara, becoming the most powerful figure since Oufkir and perhaps considered a threat by the King. In 1983, after a meeting with the King, he was killed in an auto accident, the "accidental" nature of which has been widely questioned.

48 Years Ago Today, Mehdi Ben Barka Disappeared . . .

Mehdi Ben Barka

On October 29, 1965, the exiled Moroccan leftist opposition figure Mehdi Ben Barka headed to the famous Brasserie Lipp on Paris' Boulevard St. Germain for a supposed meeting he expected to be about making a film for an upcoming conference he was organizing in Havana on Third World liberation movements. Unidentified men grabbed him, shoved him into a car, and drove away. He has not been seen since.

In theory, the French consider the case still open (though no one expects a now 93-year-old Ben Barka to turn up suddenly); it's clear that Moroccan agents were involved, but there are a lingering questions about the role of French intelligence, since he was snatched in a very public place in Paris. (And, of course, some versions bring both the CIA and Mossad into the plot. Though the Middle East loves a good conspiracy theory, it's also true that the French, American and Israeli services all had close links with the Moroccan in those days.)

In 2012 I wrote a bit about the case, after a French judge tried to have the British arrest the head of the Moroccan Olympic committee at the London Olympics.

Plaque at Brasserie Lipp

Two French officers were jailed in 1967, but the French court blamed the plot on then-Moroccan Interior Minister Mohammed Oufkir, who was killed in 1972 during an attempt to overthrow the King; various alleged accounts of what happened agree Ben Barka was either killed or died under interrogation, but the accounts don't match (the body was dissolved in acid, or encased in concrete, depending on the version). Wikipedia offers a summary of various accounts and theories.

In two years, it will have been half a century. But this is not the sort of operation likely to be declassified even at this remove.

Further Annals of the Animal Division of Mossad: Spy Bird in Turkey!

Mossad's latest agent? (Ynet)

My longtime readers are already aware of the insidious Mossad plots to train regional fauna as spies: first there was the shark attack in Sharm al-Sheikh that an official blamed on the Israeli intelligence service (especially sneaky since a lot of the tourists at Sharm are in fact Israelis). Then there was the spy vulture found in Saudi Arabia with a GPS tracker and (sneakiest of all) a leg band from an Israeli university. (Obviously a plot, right? Mossad agents always wear identifying marks, don't they? Do their human agents wear armbands that say "Israel?") Not to mention that Iran has reportedly caught pigeons and squirrels in the act as well (though it was hinted those were Western agents, not Mossad's). And the Israeli press always makes fun of these stories, which means something if you have a suitably conspiratorial mind.

Well, the Animal Division of Mossad has struck again! Israeli media is quoting Turkish reports that a Turkish farmer discovered a dead European bee-eater (like the one in the picture) complete with a leg-band that said Israel. (You'd think Mossad would have learned by now not to put "Israel" on legbands of their spy birds, but who knows?)

But that's not all: according to Yediot Aharanot's English website Ynet News:

The band, however, was not the most damning piece of evidence against the bee-eater: Its nostrils were.

The bird-beak in question reportedly sported "unusually large nostrils," which – combined with the identification ring – raised suspicions that the bird was "implanted with a surveillance device" and that it arrived in Turkey as part of an espionage mission.
The bird's remains were originally handed over to the Turkish Agriculture Ministry, which then turned in over to Ankara's security services.

I suspect the Turkish security services are professional enough to politely accept the dead bird, perhaps, but not to actually spend taxpayers' lira examining its nostrils. Of course I could be wrong.

Did Israeli Agents Support Jundallah by Claiming to be US Agents?

Mark Perry has a sensational (if true) story at Foreign Policy called "False Flag," asserting that according to US intelligence sources, Israeli agents met with Jundallah, the Sunni opposition movement inside Iran that has been accused of bombings and assassinations against Iranian targets, and that the Israelis posed as American agents in a false flag operation. Iran regularly accuses the US of supporting Jundallah; the story, if true, may have leaked because of unhappiness in the US intelligence community over the Israeli operation.

I don't know Perry's source, and stories like this always need to be approached cautiously, but I thought it worth noting.

50 Years From Operation Damocles to Tehran: Why Israel is Suspected

When yet another Iranian nuclear scientist was assassinated in Tehran today, Iran blamed the US, the UK (Iranians do that for old times' sake), and Israel. Secretary Clinton was quick to deny that the US had any knowledge or involvement, and blaming the Brits is a legacy reflex in Iran. I think most people, though, assume this was an Israeli operation. (Not to mention that they're pretty coy in their non-denials.)

Willy Messerschmitt's Helwan Fighter

That's not just because Middle Easterners, Arabs and Iranians in particular, reflexively blame Israel for everything, including in recent memory shark attacks in the Red Sea and a spy vulture in Saudi Arabia. Nor is it just because Israel's policy of "targeted killings" is well-established when it comes to clear enemies like the Hamas and Hizbullah leaderships. It's because attacking scientists working on military programs has a long history in Israeli secret operations, one that will mark its 50th anniversary this year: from German scientists working on an Egyptian rocket project in the 1960s, through Iraqi nuclear scientists in the 1980s, to the wave of Iranian nuclear scientists today, there seems to be a clear pattern.

Operation Damocles, 1962-63

The first of those, in 1962-63, was exposed when the Swiss arrested a Mossad agent involved; that led to a quarrel between David Ben-Gurion and the legendary (now: his identity was a state secret then) first head of Shin Bet and from 1951 also head of Mossad, Isser Harel, and Harel's resignation. The attacks on the German scientists, reportedly called Operation Damocles, was in response to Egyptian President Nasser's efforts to acquire a missile and aircraft industry using ex-Nazi scientists. (Horrors. It's as if we had hired Wernher von Braun to run our space program. Oh, wait.) Nasser made a lot of belligerent boasts that his missiles would be able to hit any target "south of Beirut," which Israel quite reasonably interpreted as meaning themselves.  Since both rocketry and aircraft manufacture were banned to the Bundeswehr, a lot of German scientists were looking for work. The iconic Willy Messerschmitt himself, in fact, had set up shop in Spain (then of course still under Franco), and agreed to produce a light fighter jet design he developed there as the Helwan HA-300 in Egypt.

Nasser (dark suit),  and Al-Qahir

Those remaining German rocket scientists not already working for the US and Soviet missile programs were recruited by the Egyptians. They designed a V-2 clone (Al-Qahir, usually spelled Kaher in Western reports) and a shorter-range version (Al-Zafir), and produced at least parade mockups of a two-stage version called Al-Ra'id.

As already noted, the assassinations of German scientists were eventually linked directly to Mossad. The Egyptian missile program never got much beyond the V-2 stage. Today most of the prototypes (some of which may have been mockups for military parades) are on display in town squares, traffic roundabouts, or even children's playgrounds.

How much did the Israeli assassination project against German scientists contribute to the failure of Nasser's rocket dreams, and how much was it due to impracticality and lack of funds? We'll have to wait for the Egyptian military to declassify the files. Don't hold your breath.

The Iraqi Nuclear Program

Pretty much all of you will know about Israel's strike on Iraq's Osirak reactor in 1981. Less well remembered is the killing of an Egyptian nuclear scientist said to be heading the Iraqi program, Yehia  El-Mashad, in a Paris hotel in 1980. The French  suspected Mossad, but there was no smoking gun.

A decade later, somebody shot "Iraqi supergun" designer Gerald Bull in Brussels in 1990. He'd made plenty of enemies in his day, but most people blamed Mossad.

So the string of assassinated nuclear scientists and other "accidents" in Iran lately leads a lot of observers who aren't  knee-jerk blamers of Israel to see a half-century pattern of sorts.

About That Vulture

Okay, by now you've heard about the Israeli spy vulture, since it's being commented upon all over the place. Ha'aretz broke the story in English with this story, and it's been picked up by the BBC and drawn a lot of attention. A vulture, tagged in Israel to track its migration, was found in Saudi Arabia with the Israeli tag on it, stirring local comment and suggestions it is part of a "Zionist plot."

Now it's true that many in the Arab world tend to blame Mossad for everything; some Egyptians are blaming the Alexandria church attack on Israel, and last month the Governor of Southern Sinai suggested that the Sharm al-Sheikh shark attacks might have been an Israeli plot. Such conspiracy theories are laughable and deplorable and silly, especially when a public official like an Egyptian governor are behind the allegations.

At first glance, the vulture story looks like a repeat of the shark story. As this story has been repeated, we're seeing such headlines as "Saudi Arabia Accuses Israel of Using Vultures for Spying," and reports that Saudi security has "arrested" the vulture.

But wait, let's go back to that original Ha'aretz story:

. . . residents and local reporters told Saudi Arabia's Al-Weeam newspaper that the matter seemed to be a "Zionist plot."

The accusations went viral, with hundreds of posts on Arabic-language websites and forums claiming that the "Zionists" had trained these birds for espionage.

"Residents and locsl reporters" told a local paper that seems to mostly be an online site that it looked like a Zionist plot, and "Arabic-language websites and forums" took up the theme. Where is the "Saudi Arabia Accuses Israel" in that? Internet forums in this counry are debating whether the recent bird kill in Arkansas is the result of aliens or the end times; Internet forums are not sovereign nations.

It seems to me that this is more likely a case of some rural folk catching the bird, turning it in, and telling a local reporter they suspected an Israeli plot. Then the forums pick it up. None of the major Saudi media have picked it up that I've seen, though I may have missed it. On the other hand, Arab News does have a report about the dangers of spreading unfounded rumors.

Are conspiracy theories and paranoid suspicions too widespread in the Arab world? Yes indeed. But unlike the shark story, which involved a senior government official, this one seems to be based on local speculation and blown way out of proportion by the media.

The Strange Case of General ‘Asgari

Over the New Year's weekend a very strange story suddenly surfaced (sinking fairly quickly thereafter) when Iran protested to the United Nations the alleged murder, or alleged suicide, of Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps General ‘Ali Reza ‘Asgari in an Israeli prison.

The problem is, there is no particularly good reason to believe that General &lslquo;Asgari was in an Israeli prison, or even in Israel; Israeli refusal to comment on intelligence matters and allegations, combined with censorship that is at times ridiculous in refusing even to report things published abroad, may be adding mystery where there is little or none. I have no idea where General ‘Asgari is, or whether he is alive or dead, but until the recent wave of reports most speculation had him in a safe house somewhere in the West.

It's an odd, shadowy, spooky, Spy vs. Spy sort of saga anyway. Let's take it from the top. General ‘Asgari, who was an IRGC General and a Deputy Defense Minister under President Khatami, Supplanted when Ahmadinejad was elected, he disappeared in Istanbul in 2007. Iran has claimed he was kidnapped. Western speculation has generally been that he defected and is in the hands and under the protection of a Western intelligence service. Some have claimed he had been a double agent for some years, had run Iranian intelligence in Lebanon, and had extensive knowledge of Hizbullah. That would be the presumed motive for an Israeli involvement, if any. Iran protested, and there is confusion over whether he disappeared in December 2006 or January 2007, and Western and Iranian reports attribute different stories to his wife, or someone identified as his wife. Typical cloak and dagger stuff.

Now the current issue. Last June there was an Israeli report about a mysterious "Prisoner X" who was being held at Ayalon Prison under extreme secrecy. The story disappeared from the Israeli website that published it, Ynet (the Yediot Aharanot online site), presumably due to the censor's intervention, but a screen capture by blogger and peace activist Richard Silverstein preserved the report. Silverstein, a controversial figure whose blog, Tikun Olam, often claims to break stories about Israeli intelligence. In December, Silverstein claimed that a source had identified Prisoner X as ‘Asgari, though he admitted another source had denied this, claiming to know who Prisoner X really was.

If you're with me so far, here's where it gets stranger. On December 27, a Ynet report (again taken down; Silverstein has a screenshot), and Silverstein reported that an alleged suicide of a security prisoner was ‘Asgari, but also claimed that he had been murdered.

Iranian Defense Minister Vahidi denounced the alleged murder of ‘Asgari, and Iran is reportedly taking matters to the UN.

Ha'aretz correspondent Yossi Melman, who covers the Mossad beat as far as any Israeli journalist is allowed to, published a lengthy piece on "The Mossad Myth" in which he expressed doubt that ‘Asgari had ever been in Israel and suggested a cult of excessive secrecy was lending credibility to the claims. Of course, if you're a conspiracy theorist, you'll assume Melman is reporting the line Mossad is feeding him.

The fuss seems to have died down a little in the face of other events, and as I've said already, I don't know what happened to ‘Asgari. But I'm struck by the fact that a single blogger, Silverstein, who does seem to have sources inside Israel but who has sometimes been off the mark before, is the sole real reason to believe that Prisoner X is/was ‘Asgari. If Prisoner X wasn't ‘Asgari, there's no reason to think ‘Asgari's dead. And while I respect Silverstein's views and probably share many of them, there seem to be some leaps of faith going on here in the identification.

Homicide detectives (on TV and the movies anyway) always look for motive and opportunity. If indeed Israel snatched an IRGC general and has been holding him in solitary, what would the motive be for killing him now? Anybody? Assuming the suicide story is the real one, why were they holding him so long, if he'd cooperated? Melman may know more than he can post, but he's a lot closer (geographically and otherwise) than Silverstein.

I'll note that the Iranians in the past, while blaming the US in general for being behind the disappearance of ‘Asgari in our role as the patrons of Global Arrogance, have tended to blame not only Israel but also British and German intelligence for the actual operation. There are enough people saying ‘Asgari was never in Israel and isn't dead that I tend to believe this is probably the case. Then again, he's unlikely to turn up and say, "Here I am, I'm fine," because that would probably make him a target.

Or, it could all be true. But the shadowy world in which ‘Asgari moved is one in which a whole lot is going to remain unknown for years, if not forever. You could ask Ashraf Marwan.

New Israeli Book on Ashraf Marwan Case

We've touched on the Ashraf Marwan story several times: Egyptian public figure and businessman, head of Egypt's defense industry for many years, son-in-law of Nasser, and long rumored to have been a Mossad informant who provided the crucial tip in the 1973 war, and then died in a mysterious fall from his London balcony in 2007. This past summer, a British inquest ruled out suicide but also said there was no evidence he was murdered. His widow Mona Nasser blames Israel for his death.

NOw there's a new book by an Israeli academic which concludes that he was not a double agent and blames Egypt rather than Israel for his mysterious death. Since the book is in Hebrew I can't judge it, and perhaps it's disinformation, but the linked Ha'aretz article adds to the confusion over Marwan.

New Mossad Chief: Tamir Pardo

Mossad's new chief, replacing Meir Dagan, has been named: Tamir Pardo.

Yeah, you've never heard of him. Neither have I. He's not one of the known names recently bandied about (Yuval Diskin, Amos Yadlin, even Ehud Barak). He's a former Deputy Director (never known except by initial) who stepped down in 2005 and has been an advisor to the IDF in the interim. That's why you haven't heard of him, unless you're in the loop. But Mossad wanted someone from within the organization, and he appears to have been the only internal candidate.

But since he's a career Mossad guy, you've never heard of him. That's kind of the idea. Only for a decade or so has the name of the Director been public.

Haaretz' profile here. Jerusalem Post's here.

Controversial blogger Richard Silverstein leaked the name early, though not by much. He notes that the Spanish name Pardo suggests he may be the first Sephardic director of Mossad.

Should Ehud Barak Head Mossad?

With Meir Dagan approaching the end of his term as chief of Mossad, there's been considerable speculation about his replacement. Under Dagan, there's been considerable turnover among the deputies, with several senior figures resigning or being reassigned, and now, according to Amir Oren in today's Ha'aretz, neither Shin Bet Chief Yuval Diskin or Military Intelligence Chief Amos Yadlin is eager to take the job. So Oren, after discussing the strengths and weaknesses of Diskin and Yadlin, suggests (perhaps with some encouragement?) another candidate: Ehud Barak. Barak, the current Defense Minister, was an intelligence professional and special operator before he was a politician.

This may just be a trial balloon, but I thought I'd call it to your attention.

A New Mossad Controversy

Ha'aretz is reporting a new controversy involving Mossad. Chief Meir Dagan is in a dispute with the legal advisor of the agency, a woman identified only as H., over whether the legal advisor has a right to intervene on issues involving operational activities. The article is detailed and deserves a read, though there seems to be a lot left unsaid. (They refer to US blogger Richard Silverstein at one point in the article; I believe the post they mean is this one.

Israeli reporting on intelligence issues is better than it was 30 years ago, but it still leaves out far more than the reporter probably knows. Dagan's tenure and his successor (both who and how soon) are in play, so the issue is an important one. Read the links.

The Ashraf Marwan Verdict: "Open Verdict"

The British Coroner's Inquest into the 2007 death of Ashraf Marwan (see my post yesterday for the background) is in, and it is an "Open Verdict," which seems to be British for Damned if We Know. British press reports say the coroner "ruled out any suggestion" of suicide but found "absolutely no evidence" that he was murdered. So if he didn't jump and there's no proof he was pushed, why did he go off the balcony?

Mona Nasser, Marwan's widow and a daughter of Gamal Abdel Nasser, was quoted as saying, "The truth will come out. They are still discovering things about Tutankhamun." Well, yes, but that could mean waioting a long time. (And Zahi Hawass would get the credit.)

The Daily Mail has some direct quotes from the coroner:

The Coroner noted that the balcony wall was just 3ft (1.04m) high and said it was 'more than possible' that Dr Marwan might have leant forward and fallen over it.

Dr Dolman continued : 'How did Mr Marwan leave the balcony and end up on the ground?

'There are three possibilities: Was he pushed? Did he jump or did he fall?'

He said that the evidence was inconclusive and the conclusion that Dr Marwan had leaned and fallen would be mere speculation.

Dr Dolman continued: 'It is possible that a third party got into the flat and been threatening him forcing him over, that too is a speculation.

'There is absolutely no evidence to allow me even to consider the verdict of suicide.

'The is also absolutely no evidence on which I can base the verdict of unlawful killing. We simply don't know the facts in spite of careful investigation.'

Confused yet? Of course, the disappearance of his memoirs, among other mysteries, suggests foul play, but clearly, whoever did it it left few clues. It may indeed take a very long time, if ever, for the real story to emerge.

The Ashraf Marwan Case Revisited: Still Murky

I dealt with the mysteries of the Ashraf Marwan case in passing last year, as an aside in an obituary of Mossad head Meir Amit, but now a British inquest has been reexamining the case, though reportedly its findings, due perhaps tomorrow, will be inclonclusive. This has been one of the most mysterious cloak-and-dagger tales to come out of the Middle East, worthy of a spy thriller, involving the mysterious death of an Egyptian billionaire who was Nasser's son in law, and may also have been either Mossad's greatest coup or an Egyptian double agent, or perhaps just an Egyptian agent.

For background, here's his Wikipedia bio, and here's The New York Times' account of his death in 2007. But to summarize: Ashraf Marwan was an Egyprian businessman who in the 1960s married Mona Abdel Nasser, daughter of President Gamal Abdel Nasser. This opened, as might be expected, opportunities for advancement. Marwan became a trusted aide to Anwar Sadat during the latter's presidency, and remained prominent in the Mubarak years. During the 1980s, when I was covering the Egyptian defense industry, he headed the Arab Organization for Industrialization, one of its main umbrella groups. His business dealings, which included some partnerships with Muhammad Fayed, helped make him a billionaire.

What else he was remains a matter of debate. For years, there has been speculation about who the "special source" was who informed Israel on the eve of the October 1973 war that an attack was imminent. Although surprise was still largely achieved, the warning prevented a complete surprise, and Israeli accounts always described the source as a very senior Arab figure. From the 1990s onward Israeli leaks suggested it was Marwan. But even when such allegations appeared in public, Marwan contnued to enjoy good relations with the Egyptian government, leading some Israelis to suspect he had actually been an Egyptian double agent. The fact that Israel was led to believe the attack would come at dusk rather than at midday was noted as suggesting the source did not tell all he knew.

On June 27, 2007, Marwan fell to his death from the fifth floor balcony of his London apartment. The circumstances were suspicious from the start, and the family has always insisted he was not suicidal; in fact, he was preparing to fly to the United States. In addition, the memoir he had been writing at the time of his death disappeared at the time; and the police could not locate the shoes he was wearing when he fell. There were allegations two men had been seen with him. (The fact that at least three other prominent Egyptian figures have died in London falls from balconies adds to the conspiracy theories.)

But sometimes conspiracies are not just theories, and finally the British decided on a new coroner's inquest int he case. The Ha'aretz story by Yossi Melman takes for granted that he was Mossad's source for the start of the 1973 war; it leaves open whether he was a double agent also working for Egypt. The Guardian talks to Mona Nasser about her husband; she blames Mossad. An account of the hearings in The Daily Telegraph notes that when he died President Mubarak said he had performed patriotic services that could not yet be revealed. And as the Wikipedia bio notes, his funeral in Cairo was attended by Gamal Mubarak and Omar Suleiman and presided over by the Sheikh al-Azhar: not how you send off an enemy spy.

The conclusions will no doubt be inconclusive. But it's still a fascinating tale.

David Kimche Dies at 82

Another obituary though I'm a day late: David Kimche, former Deputy Director of Mossad and later Director-General of the Israeli Foreign Ministry, has died at age 82. Another writeup here. He had a long career, but as obituaries often do, his role in the Iran-contra scandal is what is being emphasized.

As a footnote, his late brother Jon Kimche (d. 1994) was a UK-based journalist and author who wrote many books on the Middle East.

Weekend Links, Shamelessly Borrowed from The Arabist

I'm outta here for the weekend, and was busy today and tonight, but The Arabist dropped a whole lot of link dumps today and you may want to follow them; one of Algerian links (the merguez picture is a nice touch), though I've already linked to two of the articles he mentions; another on the whole Mabhouh/Mossad/Dubai soap opera; a big roundup of general links; and a whole bunch of Egypt updates.

While you're over there, see Ursula Lindsey's post on "Where is Cairo headed?", which samples her longer version for The Review at The National called "And then Cairo Turned Itself Inside Out."

And another item, this one not stolen from The Arabist, but also from The Nstional: "Was Mabhouh betrayed by someone inside Hamas?"

I thank Issandr for saving me work, and hope those links hold you for the weekend.

Another Twist in the Dubai Tale: Some Pertinent Questions

The Dubai investigation goes on. Here, from Gulf News, is a new twist: the role, or possible role, of Yuval Tal, Israeli entrepreneur whose Payoneer service is mixed up in the credit card side of the plot Ex-IDF, apparently a guy who bragged about his IDF exploits.

In general, when I hear of somebody bragging about their military exploits, I assume real covert operators would avoid them like the plague. But who knows? Maybe they used his services without his knowledge; maybe they didn't mind exposing him; maybe it's all bogus. But the Dubai authorities are not just screaming "Zionist plot!": they're documenting the links.

If the story linked above is correct, this guy doesn't sound like a reliable (from operational security viewpoints) asset for a covert operation. But I'm starting to wonder if this operation was supposed to be transparent, and obvious, with a big "F*** You, signed Mossad" or rather, "we can hit you, leave fingerprints and calling cards and appear on all your cameras and all over YouTube and still get our man, get away, and laugh at you"? Mossad has tripped over its own feet much more frequently than its admirers like to admit, but this was so obvious and thoroughly documented that one wonders if it was really intended to remain covert, or if the whole point was intended to be obvious.

If that were the case, then the question is what was the real motive of the hit?: was it to get the target (presumably at least part of the motive); or to proclaim Mossad's invincibility and omnipresence; or perhaps, to genuinely embarrass a country that has always had a softer line toward Israel than most Gulf states? Why do it in Dubai? Didn't Mabhouh ever go to Beirut or Damascus where Israel operates with less restraint? Was this deliberately intended to undermine the limited links already existing between Israel and the UAE?

And if so, why? Can anyone have thought that this would not become the center of attention? Or was that the intention?

And if it was a deliberate provocation — I'm not convinced of this but I'm trying to figure it out — was it a rogue act by Mossad chief Meir Dagan? It's not like it would embarrass the Foreign Ministry, as it presumably would if anyone but Avigdor Lieberman was the chief of diplomacy, but it still seems that if this many fingerprints were left behind, either Mossad has gotten sloppy, or someone was deliberately sending a message. That makes me think it goes higher than Dagan, and was a decision of state.

Of course, I can't prove that Israel did it, but if someone else did, they sure knew how to leave Israeli fingerprints all over the crime scene.

I've been around the track a few times and have spent decades dealing with the Middle East, so I'm not exactly naive when it comes to these sorts of shadow war operations. The real stuff is usually nasty and not usually limited to one side. It's a game fought in the shadows and it's usually rather grittier and less defined than some of the old Eric Ambler Istanbul/World War II stories; I think some of David Ignatius' novels might come closer. Four or five people I knew personally, maybe more, have died in those shadows, most of them not part of the game. (AUB President Malcolm Kerr and AUB Professor Leigh Douglas are two I can name without hesitation, both killed in Lebanon.)

So I'm not naive. But there's still something wrong with this story. Either Mossad's operational security has gone south with a vengeance, or they wanted all this publicity.

I won't, at the moment, speculate on why, if that is indeed what happened.

Is this the Story of the Hit on ‘Imad Mughniyya?

In Britain's weekly Independent, a story by Gordon Thomas, who has previously written a book on Mossad, claiming to detail the 2008 hit against Hizbullah operative ‘Imad Mughniyya.

Is this how it happened? Is Mossad perhaps leaking details of a successful hit to deflect the Keystone Kops elements and bad publicity of the Dubai operation (if indeed they did that)?

I have no idea, but read it anyway. Even if it's disinformation, the timing of the leak means something.

Dubai Asking FBI About Hit Team Credit Cards?

Interesting piece in The National.

The next few days may be crazy in the real job, so I ask your indulgence if I'm a bit quiet.

Colonel Mustard in the Library with the Candlestick

UPDATED: In tomorrow's Ha'aretz, Yossi Melman, who generally knows this beat pretty well, raises some questions about the details emerging: "Was Mossad on a Fantastic Adventure in Dubai?" The more elaborate this gets, the more unprofessional it seems.

There are now 15 more suspects in the Mabhouh hit in Dubai. So there are now 26 suspects in all, and this chart from Gulf News (PDF) shows how they are linked to each other.

Assassination hit squads: mainstay of the Dubai travel industry since 2010.

If this was indeed a Mossad operation, there seem to have been some holes in their operational security. (Well, okay, they got their target and got away, and they may not normally look anything like these passport photos. The number of beards, mustaches, shaved heads and glasses suggests disguise.)

ADDED: I don't usually flag comments since they're there for you to read, but I know some folks don't read them, so I thought I'd flag the three comments so far on this otherwise thin post. First, David Mack:

David Mack said...

Mossad chose its operatives' passports carefully. It turns out that some 33 nationalities do not require visas and are not subject to the routine iris scans that UAE introduced at all points of entry in 2002. Abu Dhabi's National has a good article at [link].

Next, "Will":

Will said:

2010? Come on, Dubai has been the assassination capital of the region since at least 2008 -- Suzanne Tamim, the Chechen warlord gunned down in '09. Who am I missing?

Just embarrassing for Mabhouh to get it in Garhoud when the Dubai Marina has been THE place to get killed for quite some time.

To which I have replied:

Will: I suppose three makes it the "assassination capital of the region," geographically limited, but London balcony falls have accounted for four Egyptians so far (Ashraf Marwan, Nasser's son in law and alleged Israeli informer; actress Suad Husni with vague rumors of shady ties; Al-Leithy Nassif, Egyptian Ambassador to Britain; and Ali Shafiq, aide to the late Abd al-Hakim Amr. Must be the ice on the balconies.

Admittedly, Dubai's been a lot livelier lately, like Istanbul in an Eric Ambler novel or something.

And Larnaca is still in the running, I think.

Since the comments on this post are more interesting than the post, I thought I'd move them up here.

Hamas Figure Arrested in Damascus for Dubai Link?

I don't know if this report is true but apparently more than one source is reporting that a senior aide to Mahmud Mabhouh has been arrested in Damascus for possibly revealing the travel plans of Mabhouh prior to the Dubai hit operation.

If this proves to be true it would bear out reports from the Dubai authorities that the leak came from within Hamas, which Hamas has been denying. Hamas has claimed that Fatah collaborated with Mossad; if the arrested man is guilty, then the question is, had Israel infiltrated Hamas, or had Fatah? Middle Eastern aficionados of conspiracy theories (who are plentiful) will no doubt have fun with this one, if true.