Jumblatt, Druze Clergy at Odds over Syria

Eternal Lebanese political weathervane Walid Jumblatt has been denouncing Syria lately, and supporting the uprising. As this piece in Al-Akhbar notes, however, that isn't selling well to the Druze elders in Lebanon, who are determined to stay out of Syrian internal affairs. The Druze clergy appear to be at odds with their hereditary feudal lord/Socialist politician leader, in part out of concern for the Druze in Syria.

Though the Syrians were most likely behind his father's assassination, he was long a staunch defender of Damascus, though he also went through an anti-Syrian  period when he became the only member in good-standing of the Socialist International to be feted by US right-wing think tanks like the Heritage Foundation and the American Enterprise Institute. After another round of pro-Syrian alignment, he's now firmly (for now) on the side of the uprising.

Jumblatt Shifts with the Current Yet Again

The inscrutable sage of Middle East Politics, Walid Jumblatt, has done it again: shifted his allegiances with the prevailing winds. Qifa Nabki, to whom credit for the Yoda Photoshop at left also belongs, traces the Druze leader's shifting stance, from pro-Hariri to pro-Syrian and now, with events in Syria, seemingly tacking back in the other direction. Qifa also has links to many of the earlier shifts in allegiance of the man who, as I have noted before, is probably the only member in good standing of the Socialist International who also was, for a time, a darling of the Heritage Foundation and the American Enterprise Institute.

Lebanon: Walid Bey Explains it All

The collapse of the Lebanese government may have been inevitable once the Syrian-Saudi mediation was declared a failure, and it returns the country to the paralysis it endured in 2006-2007, which led to the Doha Agreement and the creation of a unity Cabinet in which the "opposition" (in quotes since they joined the Cabinet) had a "blocking third" that could block legislsation or, in this case, bring down the government. Once Hizbullah and Amal and their Christian allies quit, only one more resignation was needed to collapse the government, and a Presidential appointee obliged. Qifa Nabki gives his usual clear backgrounder.

But the always entertaining and unpredictable Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, who met today with the Maronite Patriarch at the Patriarchate, told reporters that "Yesterday, the dark forces intervened and torpedoed the Saudi-Syrian initiative," Some reports are translating it as "occult forces."

I guess he's saying the devil made them do it.

Israel on Alert about Lebanon

You can feel the temperature risin' in Lebanon, but Elvis has nothing to do with it. Israel's security cabinet is meeting today over concerns, in the wake of the CBC report leaking parts of the Special Tribunal on Lebanon's findings, Hizbullah might, as Ha'aretz puts it, "try to take over Lebanon."

This is probably just posturing but, combined with worries about a new Lebanese civil war, it reminds us that the STL is playing with fire. It's seeking justice, but even Rafiq Sa‘d Hariri, who would seem to have as much interest as anyone in solving his father's murder, is trying to dial back on the tensions.

Lebanon being Lebanon, he could ask Walid Jumblatt how he coped with his father's murder.

World Druze Congress in Lebanon includes Israelis

The Druze don't turn up here much, with only five posts under that topic, though one was less than two weeks ago, and of course, Walid Bey has his own category. But we've now had a major World Druze Congress in Lebanon, with 840 delegates from 37 countries, including 35 from Israel, who of course needed some diplomacy to get there.

I hope we learn more about this pan-national Druze Congress. The Druze are — more or less by their own choice — little understood because of the secretive and esoteric nature of trhier faith, but they are a cohesive and distinct group in those countries where they have a significant presence: Lebanon, Syria, Israel, Palestine, and Jordan.

Walid Bey on the Arab Summit

I have a weakness for Lebanese Druze za‘im Walid Jumblatt, since if you disagree with what he says today, you'll probably like what he says tomorrow (neocon darling one day, Syria's friend the next, or as I've put it before, perhaps the only member in good standing of the Socialist International who has addressed the American Enterprise Institute and the Heritage Foundation). His moral compass spins wonderfully with the shifting power balance. But how can you resist a statement that "Libya's Arab summit emphasized the continuous Arab course of deterioration and regression." Sometimes he nails it.

And the appropriate way to illustrate such wisdom is by reproducing Qifa Nabki's 2009 Halloween posting, in which reminded we are that, as a Druze leader, Walid Bey a Jedi Master is:


If I were that good at Photoshop, I'd really go to town here.

Jumblatt Meets ‘Aoun — in Qatar

Lebanese Druze leader Walid Jumblatt has met with Maronite figure General Michel ‘Aoun — in the Lebanese Embassy in Qatar. This comes amid speculation that Jumblatt is also planning to visit Damascus as part of his increasing distancing of himself from the March 14 Movement.

It is still the case that Lebanese factions whose power bases are in the same mountains often only talk to each other outside the country. Five years after the Cedar Revolution, one might wish for more, but wishing doesn't deliver much in Lebanon, I fear.

Don't Miss This

Don't miss Qifa Nabki's halloween posting.

I knew Walid Jumblatt reminded me of someone.

Walid Jumblatt's Latest: There Goes His Heritage Foundation Invitation

I noted earlier that whereas back in the Bush years, Lebanese Druze leader Walid Jumblatt was for a while the darling of neoconservatives in Washington, meeting with Dick Cheney and making the rounds, he's now distanced himself from them.

And how: in an interview with Iran's Press TV, he's quoted as saying that Lebanon could use arms from Iran (he also mentions Russia and China), and that the Arab world and Iran should move closer together.

Admittedly, it's a Press TV report reported by Al-Manar (i.e., Hizbullah), so I'm sure they emphasized the Iranian parts of his interview, but I do think he won't be going to Heritage or AEI next time he comes here.

Walid Jumblatt's Latest Flip

Lebanese Druze leader Walid Jumblatt almost personally embodies the complexities and contradictions often present in Lebanese politics. Though a hereditary leader of the Druze, the party he inherited from his father is a leftist one. Though he is a member of the Socialist International, on his last visit to Washington he met with Dick Cheney and appeared at several neoconservative think-tanks. Though his father Kamal was most likely assassinated by the Syrians, he supported Syria for many years, later turning against it and allying with the Hariri-led March 14 Movement. Clear enough?

Well, he seems to be doing it again. He has told his party that his neocon adventures in Washington were a mistake and he has split with March 14, saying he will support President Michel Suleiman politically. The Daily Star reports it here and tries to explain it here. On the lighter side, the always entertaining and informed blogger Qifa Nabki imagines a phone conversation between Sa‘d Hariri and Jumblatt.

Jumblatt is defending his latest flip (or flop) on the grounds that the is "an exceptional and independent case." He is certainly that.

But the flip-flops of Jumblatt's career are part of what I've tried to argue in some of my earlier discussions of Lebanon: Jumblatt's priorities are not defined purely by a zero-sum pro-Syrian versus pro-American view of the world: he is pro-Druze and pro-Jumblatt. As leader of a distinct community in Lebanon, even his party's ideology may be less important than his role as leader of the Druze. Certainly his calculations this time may have been somewhat cynical — things have been drifting since the election; the economy is suffering; and Syria may be making a comeback of sorts. But it's a reminder that in Lebanon, sometimes you can't tell the players even with a scorecard, because the sides keep changing.