Is Muhammad bin Nayef Replacing Bandar bin Sultan on the Saudi Syria Account?

Earlier today The Wall Street Journal reported that Saudi Intelligence Chief Prince Bandar bin Sultan, who for decades was Ambassador to the US, had been "replaced" as the Saudi responsible for Syria policy due to failures of Saudi policy in supporting the moderate Syrian rebels. Rumors about Bandar being either ill or on the way out due to the failures of his Syria policy and worsening relations with the US have been in the air for weeks, however. [Update: Let me clarify that the WSJ piece didn't explicitly say that he'd been replaced as head of intelligence; I simply read it that way at first and have changed my text to reflect the fact that the replacement only involves the Syria issue.]
This Washington Post piece by David Ignatius, known for his links in US intelligence circles, says that Western and Middle Eastern "spymasters" met to discuss Syria strategy and that Muhammad bin Nayef has taken over the Syria responsibility from Bandar, "who has been suffering from a back ailment and whose leadership of the program was seen as uneven."

One of the issues for the Saudis  is the growing power of Jihadi groups like the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS). Muhammad bin Nayef, when he was Deputy Interior Minister under his late father, was well-known as the main anti-terrorism chief against al-Qa‘ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), presumably even more so after an AQAP figure tried to kill him in 2009 by detonating a bomb inserted in his (the suicide bomber's) rectum. Muhammad received wounds but survived.

Bandar may well be on the way out at General Intelligence, but it would make little sense for Muhammad bin Nayef (who's on the fast track, clearly) to take a demotion. Giving him just the Syria dossier makes a lot more sense.

An Interesting Open Source Multi-Media Site on the Middle East from Oxford

A new site from Oxford, Manar al-Athar, offers free photos and other media relating to the Middle East. Here's how they explain it:

The Manar al-Athar website, based at the University of Oxford, aims to provide high resolution, searchable images for teaching, research, and publication. These images of archaeological sites, with buildings and art, will cover the areas of the former Roman empire which later came under Islamic rule, such as Syro-Palestine/the Levant, Arabia, Egypt, North Africa and Spain. The chronological range is from Alexander the Great (i.e., from about 300 BC) through, the Islamic period to the present. It is the first website of its kind providing such material labelled jointly in both Arabic and English. We will also be publishing related material, both online and on paper, in English and Arabic.

Humanitarian Needs of Syrian Children

I find it hard to write about Syria; it's so depressing and there are no easy solutions. But the humanitarian issues are real, immediate, and addressable. As you may know, MEI recently sponsored a conference on just this subject.

Here's a moving appeal from Karen Betts, Foreign Policy Counsellor at the British Embassy in Washington on the Embassy's "Global Conversations" Blog," Syrian Children Need Our Help."

It's worth a read.

Salam Finally Forms Lebanon's New Cabinet

One thing that happened over the holiday weekend that I probably should mention: after more than ten months since he was designated as Lebanon's Prime Minister, Tammam Salam finally formed a Cabinet.

As has been the case since the 2008 Doha Accord, the 24-person Cabinet (23 men, one woman) is divided three ways, with eight members from the conservative March 14 bloc, eight from the March 8 bloc (which includes Hizbullah), and eight "centrists" selected by the President, the Prime Minister, and Walid Jumblatt. This formula, which makes it difficult to reach decisions since any of the three blocs can prevent a quorum, is one reason Lebanon can go 10 months without a Cabinet: the system has deadlock and paralysis built in, so the absence of a Cabinet makes things only slightly worse; but the growing wave of bombings and the burden of refugees flowing in from Syria has exacerbated the situation in recent months.

Qifa Nabki (Elias Muhanna) offers a useful analysis of his own reading of the new Cabinet, including speculation about March 8 and March 14 "moles" in the centrist bloc.He also provides this useful table of who's who, which I hope he won't mind me posting here:

qifanabki.com

Meanwhile, Karl Sharro (Karl ReMarks) offers a tongue-in-cheek guide to making a Lebanese government, which actually explains it fairly well. You should read it all.

Given the long wait for the new government, I am also reminded of this Sharro cartoon from last summer, "The Phoenicians invent Government":

The Marshall Islands' Non-Explanation of That Jamil El-Sayed UNESCO Nomination

Remember last week's weird (just really weird) story about how the tiny Marshall Islands had nominated the former Lebanese security chief (and Hariri assassination suspect) Jamil El-Sayed to be their (its?) Ambassador to UNESCO in Paris, and then withdrew the nomination?

It was strange to begin with. (And for what may be the first time since World War II, the Marshall Islands made global news twice in recent weeks, as the Mexican castaway who supposedly survived for nearly a year also washed up on one of their atolls.)

Since you probably don't regularly read or follow the weekly newspaper The Marshall Islands Journal, I thought I'd share their not entirely illuminating background piece:

As officials in Majuro [the Marshallese capital], learned Wednesday that the nomination of al-Sayyed had been officially transmitted to UNESCO — apparently last December — they moved quickly to cancel it. Acting President Tony deBrum communicated with President Loeak and Foreign Minister Phillip Muller while they were enroute to Japan, and a letter rescinding the nomination of al-Sayyed was prepared and signed by Muller who had signed the original letter nominating al-Sayyed in December. RMI [Republic of the Marshall Islands] officials said they were unable to locate the original nomination letter that Muller signed in December. Muller signed another letter Wednesday to UNESCO Director General Irina Bokova cancelling the nomination for al-Sayyed effective immediately. Acting President deBrum told the Journal Wednesday that initial contact about the possible nomination of al-Sayyed was made to RMI leaders during a visit to Palau at the end of September, and then a follow up visit by a representative of al-Sayyed in December, which resulted in the nomination letter being signed. 

So, "they were unable to locate the original nomination letter?" The original approach came via Palau, another Pacific microstate and ex-US Trust Territory?  There was "a follow up visit by a representative of al-Sayyed in December, which resulted in the nomination letter being signed."

And that's all it takes to  nominated an Ambassador to UNESCO for a country Jamil El-Sayed may never have visited?

Why do I feel part of this story is still missing?

A Graphic Illustration of Why There is So Much Sexual Content on the Internet

February hasn't been a great blogging month. I lost a couple of days to a bug and much of the country was iced, snowed, or otherwise weathered out of the picture for a while. On the weekend I did a routine check of blog  traffic and found it was low on this site and others. I've talked about the situations in Egypt and Syria, a fair amount of cultural stuff, the Bouteflika-Mediene power struggle in Algeria, and other serious matter, though little has been exciting. Traffic on the blog has been a few hundred visits a day, the extremely low end of normal.

Then we learned that Lebanese Olympic skier Jackie Chamoun had once taken her top off for a ski calendar photoshoot. Though the photos I posted here were in the Sports Illustrated  Swimsuit issue level of peek-a-boo suggestiveness at best, the whole Chamoun issue went viral due to a "making of" video which she says was not to be made public,  I had one critical comment on the post, criticizing me for "bashing" Ms. Chamoun while I thought I was defending her. That post went up late on the night of February 10. The next day I got 1,242 visits and 1,504 pageviews; the following day 942 visits and 1,093 pageviews. Not my all-time high or even close, but pretty impressive for February. I later had a follow-up post on the surge of support for her. (And Sports Minister Faisal Karami, who called for an investigation, is not in the newly-named Cabinet.)

The graph above is Google Analytics'  trace of the first two weeks of February's blog traffic, showing the Chamoun surge. [Update: off blog I've had comments about the shape of the graph. Take a cold shower and get a girlfriend.]

 Lebanese traffic also increased, Lebanon rising to number 7 in my source countries. It may have risen that high in the past, but not for quite a while. The English-speaking countries (US, UK, Canada and Australia: where are you, New Zealanders?) plus Egypt, Israel, the UAE, Germany, and lately Turkey (which used to block all Blogger sites) usually dominate, but this propelled Lebanon up the ranks.

In the top 10 Google search words included all of the following:

Jackie Chamoun (the number one search)
Jackie Chamoun topless
Jacky Chamoun
Jacky Chamoun topless
Jackie Chamoun nudity

Five in the top ten; three in the top four. Most do not appear to relate to her Olympic ski performance; she didn't actually ski till the weekend. None said "Jackie Chamoun Olympic ski results."

Now, don't read this as meaning that my readers are basically all lecherous males looking for not-very-revealing pictures; it's more a function of lecherous males looking for not-very-revealing pictures who never heard of this blog before finding it through Google.

On the other hand, among my highest-ranking posts for all time are those dealing with Aliaa Elmahdy, though again her actual nudity never appeared on the blog. So talking about nudity works.

We all know sex sells. Apparently naked, or topless, Arab women draw traffic. (Who'd have thunk it?) In my original post I said that the still pics were mild and only the video showed much, and commented:

I still think it's rather mild: there are a few shots, at some distance, where you seem to see her breasts fully, but unless you're really good at stop-motion screen shots, if this is the only way you can find nudity (with nipples: see above) on the Internet, you're doing it wrong. I find it innocent enough to post here.

I underestimated the lechery of the Internet: of course there are now tons of screencaps showing blurry shots of Ms. Chamoun's breasts. You won't find them here, as I'm respecting her Facebook request not to circulate them further, and if blurred distant toplessness is the best you can do you don't understand the Internet; but I fear she's paying the price of being photographed in revealing ways, even if not for publication. Once a photo or a video is on the Internet, it will never entirely disappear. I still don't think she did anything wrong: actresses in Arab films and music videos sometimes appear seemingly topless, though only their back is shown; I assume the cameramen and director saw more. (And a few have survived "sex tape" scandals, though without the career boost that seems to create in the West). Ms. Chamoun did not think the "making of" video would ever appear, and the calendar, if coy, was unrevealing. The biggest "boobs" in this story are her critics.

Despite the huge surge last week, I am not taking from it the lesson that this should be a sex blog, or start running a Page Three Girl if we had pages.The Middle East Institute tolerates my rather broad "social and cultural" mission definition, but I'm not going to push it. (There aren't enough topless Arab women anyway.) But if you wonder why there's so much sexual content on the Internet, I think the graph above is revealing. It draws traffic.

President's Day Holiday

Today is the President's Day holiday in the US. It used to be Washington's Birthday, but now we throw in all the Presidents. So in honor of the leadership qualities of Millard Fillmore, Franklin Pierce, and Rutherford B. Hayes, I won't be blogging today.

Libya: What if they Gave a Coup and Nobody Came?

There are sincere people who disagree about whether or not what happened in Egypt July 3 was a coup or not, but I think most people would agree that the mouse-that-roared "coup" in Libya today was definitely not a coup.

Major General Khalifa Haftar (also Hifter), a former general under Qadhafi who may or may not have been influential in his overthrow and may or may not be retired, posted a video online in which he "announced" that "The national command of the Libyan Army is declaring a movement for a new road map." (These days, it's always a road map.) He announced the suspension of Parliament.

Then the Prime Minister called it "ridiculous," the Army denied it and stayed in its barracks, and Parliament kept on functioning. The New York Times account here;  and the Reuters version here.

Now no one doubts tensions are high in Libya and people are a bit jittery, but you see, General, as influential as YouTube is, you still can't overthrow a government with a YouTube video. You still need to seize the radio and TV stations and maybe the airport, and for that a few actual troops and maybe some tanks in the street are pretty much necessary.

This Al-Arabiya shot is making the media rounds; "Haftar announces an inqilab"; in Arabic, inqilab means "coup," but its literal meaning is "turning over":

Nine Years Today Since the Hariri Assassination

When I noted yesterday the very weird story about the Marshall Islands and Jamil El-Sayed, I failed to realize the irony of the timing: today marks the ninth anniversary of the assassination of Rafiq Hariri,  a crime for which Jamil El-Sayed was imprisoned for four years, but never prosecuted.

Sisi Returns Triumphant from Russian Visit, Putin Endorsement

I guess if you are around long enough some things do come full circle. On a July day in 1972 I sat on  balcony by the Nile and watched wave after wave of big Antonov transports heading eastward over the city of Cairo. I wondered if troops were being moved towards the Canal, then the front line with Israel. The next day I learned otherwise: Anwar Sadat had expelled the Soviet military "advisers" (some of whom were actually pilots and such) from Egypt.

Field Marshal al-Sisi has now returned triumphant from Moscow, having concluded a $2 billion arms deal with Russia, a deal reportedly paid with Gulf funding, and, perhaps more importantly, won an apparent endorsement by Vladimir Putin himself for his likely run for the Egyptian Presidency. (Sisi was there in his capacity as Defense Minister, along with Foreign Minister Nabil Fahmy, and they were technically returning the visit of the Russian Foreign and Defense Ministers to Cairo last year. But the trip, which the Russians reportedly wanted to delay until after the Olympics but Sisi refused, is clearly being played in the Egyptian media as Sisi's first big diplomatic triumph, ideally timed before Presidential elections in April. It allows him to distance himself from the long dependence on the US, echoes the theme of Sisi as a new Nasser, and the act that he wore a business suit rather than a uniform also drew attention.

Of course, Egypt hasn't broken with the US as a military supplier; it's diversifying. Sisi is not Nasser, Putin's Russia is not the Cold War Soviet Union, and it's not the 1950s and 1960s any more, but the trip does skillfully evoke memories of those days, when Khrushchev stood next to Nasser at the Aswan High Dam. Since Sisi will need to announce his Presidential intentions soon, the high-profile trip to Moscow represents a well-timed move.

Marshall Islands Withdraw Nomination of Ex-Lebanese Spymaster Jamil El-Sayed as their Ambassador to UNESCO. Wait, WHAT?

Remember Jamil El-Sayed? He was once the pro-Syrian Lebanese General in charge of the powerful Sureté Général. Then, after the Hariri assassination, he was arrested during the Mehlis investigation and held for four years, until 2009. He was released for lack of evidence to prosecute but reportedly remains of interest to the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL).

I lost track of him after 2009 but then comes this AFP story yesterday:

The Marshall Islands have withdrawn their nomination of a former Lebanese army general as their ambassador to UNESCO, a well-placed diplomatic source told AFP on Wednesday.

The general, Jamil El Sayed, spent four years in prison on suspicion of involvement in the 2005 murder of the former Lebanese prime minister Rafic Hariri. He denies any involvement and claims to have been subjected to arbitrary detention.

The Marshall Islands' move to nominate him to UNESCO, the UN's cultural arm, was revealed by French daily Le Figaro, which noted that acquiring diplomatic immunity could enable El Sayed to avoid potential prosecution by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, an international UN-backed criminal tribunal looking into Hariri's murder.

The Marshall Islands is a Pacific islands microstate and former US Trust Territory; here's the original Le Figaro story from a few days ago:

Selon nos informations, les minuscules îles Marshall, peuplées de 60.000 âmes dans le nord de l'océan Pacifique, ont bien notifié à l'Unesco la candidature du général al-Sayed pour les représenter. «Cela créé un vif émoi au sein de l'Organisation, constate un diplomate arabe. L'Unesco n'a pas envie de voir débarquer un homme au passé sulfureux.» Sollicitée, l'Unesco n'a pas souhaité répondre à nos questions.

According to Le Figaro, the French government was also far from  eager to see him turn up in Paris under diplomatic immunity. Now the nomination has been withdrawn.

Just speculating: do you think the Marshall Islands were just so impressed with the former Lebanese spy chief's profound contributions in the educational, scientific, and cultural fields, UNESCO's brief, or did he have a longtime close relationship with these Micronesian atolls?

Or, horrors, do you think money could have been somehow involved?

After Sports Minister's Remarks, Lebanese Social Media Spring to Defense of Jackie Chamoun

The age of social media makes it harder for government officials to escape ridicule when they act stupidly. I already noted a couple of days ago that the fuss over pictures of Lebanese Olympic skier Jackie Chamoun was being blown out of proportion in the Lebanese press; then Caretaker Youth and Sports Minister Faisal Karami chimed in, saying the photos would damage Lebanon's international image and saying he had telephoned the International Olympic Committee to ask for an investigation.

Comments on social media were quick to note that there have been a number of deadly car bombings lately in Lebanon as well as a couple of recent wife murders that went unpunished, and that maybe some cheesecake pictures of an attractive athlete weren't really the biggest threat to the country's reputation. And that "Caretaker" in Karami's title stems from the fact that Lebanon has gone without a government for ten months now; but then, as Qifa Nabki noted recently, it's also been the case for two and a half out of the last four years.
As for Chamoun herself, she apologized on her Facebook page, noting that the photos were old, that the actual calendar photos were not that revealing, and that the video of the "making of" the calendar was not supposed to be made public.  She said:

 I just want to make it clear to everyone who commented, shared the photos that appeared on the net in Lebanon yesterday. Yes I did photos for an Austrian ski calendar with other professional athletes 3 years ago. The photos of the photoshoot are not like the actual images that are now circulating on the net. The video and photos that you are now seeing are part of the making off, the preparation, it wasn’t supposed to go public. Anyways, I want to apologize to all of you, I know that Lebanon is a conservative country and this is not the image that reflects our culture. I fully understand if you want to criticise this.

Now that I’m at the Olympic Games, these photos that I never saw before are being shared. It is sad. All I can ask to each of you who saw this, is to stop spreading it, it will really help me focusing on what is really important now: my trainings and race.

In fact, not only did the comments on her post appear to be mostly favorable,  but Lebanese took to social media with a #StripforJackie campaign, posting pictures of themselves discreetly covered by strategically placed protest signs; bloggers also sprang to her defense, and Lebanon Now editorialized with these words and photo, in an editorial entitled "Boobs over Bullets; Gold over Graft":

Jackie Chamoun, one of two alpine skiers representing Lebanon at the Sochi Olympics, has come under fire for exposing herself (or part of herself) in a photo shoot a few years ago. In turn, her critics have come under fire for targeting “boobs instead of bombs.” Meanwhile, the Lebanese Minister of Youth and Sports has called upon Lebanese Olympic officials to investigate matters to uphold Lebanon’s reputation. (Incidentally, as many others have pointed out, that reputation would be a lot nicer without the cartels, bombings, killings, kidnappings, gun running, drug smuggling, corruption, poor roads, lack of power, inconsistent water supply, and declining quality of hummus.)

Lebanon Now Website

Furthermore, some Lebanese commercial products also joined in the #StripforJackie protest on their websites and social media pages, including Almaza beer, posing without its label:

Roughly, "don't take my clothes off."

The whole "scandal" isn't a scandal and henceforth I think we should respect Ms. Chamoun's request and let her concentrate on the ski slopes. And I hope all the humor has put Mr. Karami's indignation in proper perspective.

Did the Focus on Tahrir Miss the Real Story?

As Washington digs out from the snowstorm, here's an interesting piece: "Did Reporters Covering the Arab Spring Miss the Real Story?" The author thinks so, that the focus on Tahrir Square missed the silent majority of Egyptians who were not there and who did not share the heady enthusiasm, but whose concerns are more in evidence now. It's worth your time.

On the Damaged Dar al-Kutub Manuscript Collection

 We've dealt previously with the damage the January 24 Cairo bombing did to the Museum of Islamic Art across the street from the police headquarters that was the target; an article at Mada Masr goes into more detail on the damage to the other institution in the building, the rare manuscript collection of the Dar al-Kutub Bab al-Khalq (the old Dar al-Kutub). It also outlines the history of Egypt's National Library at that site,dating back to its days as the Khedivial Library.  Both the Museum and the Library are priceless storehouses of Islamic heritage.

Retired General Urges Bouteflika to Retire

The ongoing tug of war between President Bouteflika and the DRS Military Intelligence establishment continues. Hocine Benhadid, a senior retired general, has now publicly called on Bouteflika not to run for a fourth term, saying he should retire "with dignity and let Algeria catch its breath." 

Benhadid also denounced FLN Secretary General Amar Saidani's recent call for the resignation of the DRS head as "treason." From the AFP report:

But for Benhadid, the country's stability cannot be guaranteed by someone who was "sick" and the "hostage of his entourage."

He singled out for criticism Bouteflika's brother Said, the "main actor" in the presidential clan, as well as army chief Ahmed Gaid Salah, one of the ailing leader's key allies.
"The chief of staff has no credibility, and no one is fond of him," Benhadid said.
He accused Bouteflika's entourage of "playing with Algeria's destiny" in order to "save its skin, because corruption has reached dangerous levels."

Benhadid, who retired in 1996 during Algeria's decade-long civil war, said Bouteflika's clan was guilty of "treason" for calling on Mohamed "Tewfik" Mediene, the veteran chief of the DRS military intelligence agency, to quit over alleged security failings.
Saidani, the leader of Bouteflika's National Liberation Front and a key supporter of the president standing for re-election, made the call last week in unprecedented public criticism of the secretive general who many consider the hidden force in Algerian politics.

Bouteflika himself, in the wake of the recent fatal military aircraft crash, denounced any who criticize the Army, perhaps seeking to distance himself from Saidani's remarks.

Will Yemen's Federation Plan Work?

The conventional wisdom on the "Arab Spring" has long been that Tunisia is the one real success story; Yemen is too complicated, the former President is still influential, and the  country still faces a great many challenges.

But yesterday's announcement that the country will be transformed into a federation of six autonomous regions is a good sign. The former South Yemen has been restless since its failed attempt at secession in 1994; the Houthi uprising in the north is another reminder of the country's centrifugal tendencies.

The southerners are not entirely happy; four of the six regions are in the former North Yemen and only two in the former South Yemen, but Aden will be given a special role in the southern regions. It won't solve all of Yemen's problems, perhaps even the South's complaints, but like the Tunisian constitution it is a reminder that when diverse political parties and social groups consult together, it is possible to move forward.

Lebanon Sent Two Athletes to Sochi and There's Already a "Scandal" About One of Them

If you've been watching the Olympics in Sochi (and it's pretty hard to avoid), you already know that this is not the Middle East's thing, exactly. Despite the famous Jamaican bobsled team, the Saudis don't do the luge, skiing is scarce in Libya. and nobody including me has a clue about curling. Of the 88 countries participating at Sochi, only two are Arab: Lebanon and Morocco. Israel. Iran, and Turkey are there, as are Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. who are all in the neighborhood. Some Central Asian countries are there too.

By an odd coincidence last week my staff was poking around in the Middle East Institute's attic and found a 1946 book in Arabic on "Winter Sports in Lebanon," and this post relates to the Lebanese Olympic team.

Jackie with skies and not much else

Lebanon sent two athletes to compete at Sochi: skiers Alexandre Mohat and Jackie Chamoun, Another skier who is in the Olympic delegation from Lebanon, Chirine Njeim, and who competed in Vancouver in 2010 but isn't skiing this year, and Chamoun, are the center of the controversy. Apparently last year they posed for a calendar in Switzerland for photographer/Olympic skier Hubertus von Hohenlohe, a German prince who is representing Mexico in Sochi (I'm not making this up), and in the stills from the shoot, Chamoun appears topless. I say "appears" because, in most of the stills at least, her hands,arms, or ski are strategically placed. We aren't in Playboy territory here but in Sports Illustrated swimsuit issue world, with hands, hair, etc. keeping things, in US movie-rating terms, PG-13 rather than R.

A Lebanese media site, Al-Jadid Sport reported today what was already apparently old news: that Chamoun and Njeim had  posed for the calendar, calling it a scandal, and so on. Bloggers aren't as sure, and part of the issue is what "topless" means, since Western models at least often pose showing parts but not all of their "top" and aren't  considered to have done nudity. (In the US at least the distinction seems to be, frankly, whether you can see nipples. If not, it's seemingly OK for broadcast TV.) (Of course it makes no sense, but don't complain to me.)

How scandalous exactly is this "side-boob" shot?

Jackie is clearly enough topless in this picture but not frontally so: is that as objectionable? Oh, EEK! She's topless! Yes, but showing only what the American tabloids call "sideboob," a useful if inelegant term. It's unclear as to why Americans seem to be OK with seeing almost all the breast except for the nipple before they complain "she's naked" (over here, "pastie" means something quite different than it does in Cornwall: a small application pasted over the nipple), but that's how it is. Europeans don't seem to obsess as much on the nipple, but Americans do. Chamoun is within the acceptable range in the still photos..

Hizbullah (less tolerant than even puritanical Americans) is not going to like it back home, but her name indicates she's Christian, and Lebanon has a tradition of sexual edginess.

In fact, she has already discussed the photo shoot with NBC, which handles the official US Olympic coverage:

Hubertus mentioned that you posed for his Ski Instructors calendar. What was that like and did you get the chance to talk with him at all about his Olympic experiences?

Hubertus is a good friend of mine. He came to Lebanon for international competitions and I also saw him at the World Championships in Val d’Isere in 2009 and the Olympics in 2010. We stayed in contact and he was in Serbia when I was there racing. He is a really good friend and he is very passionate about what he does, whether it is sport or the Olympics or photography. It is nice to see people who are older and still want more and don’t want to stop because they love the sport so much.

So, Hubertus came to Lebanon because he did a video show about Beirut and he also did this calendar. Chirine and I were in the calendar. We met him on the slopes. Of course it was a strange feeling to be on the slopes of Lebanon and produce this calendar, but it was great to be with Hubertus and his crew. It was a great experience and a lot of fun.

When you say it was weird, what do you mean?

First because it was… I did photos before for a Lebanese magazine and advertisements but not these kind of photos. The other weird thing was that I knew everybody at the ski resort. I knew all the skiers who were passing. I could see other skiers. I could see the parents of other skiers. I could see my coaches, everyone. When you get there, you are like, ‘No, what am I doing? Maybe I shouldn’t do this.’ But then you go with it and have fun.

Was it a positive experience?

Uhh, yes.

Why the hesitation?

(laughs) It was positive for me. I don’t regret it at all. When I started my job, for example, people when they search for me on the web sometimes they can see these pictures directly so you think maybe it’s not the best thing, not the best image you can give someone of you. But, I don’t really care, though. I really enjoyed it and I don’t regret it. I like these photos. I have no problem with it.

Was it difficult to do in a country like Lebanon which is more conservative than a lot of other counties in the world?

Yes. If we were somewhere else in Lebanon, in a public place, maybe they would have shooted us. But we were on the slope in Faraya and it is an open space. The people who go there are people from Beirut who are open-minded, more international in their thinking, and also the jet-set of Lebanon so it wasn’t a problem there. It’s really open there, like in Europe. In other places we could have been in really big trouble.

What did your parents say?

My dad wasn’t happy with it at all (laughs). He didn’t want me to do it, but my mom was okay with it.

Fair enough, I'd say. Here, for the record, is her fellow Lebanese Olympian Cherine Njeim, also under-dressed for the weather:

Also, I feel, in the PG-13 Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue range of objectionableness. 

To be fair to the critics, there is a "making of" video out there on YouTube which does appear to show more of Jackie than the stills do. I still think it's rather mild: there are a few shots, at some distance, where you seem to see her breasts fully, but unless you're really good at stop-motion screen shots, if this is the only way you can find nudity (with nipples: see above) on the Internet, you're doing it wrong. I find it innocent enough to post here.


I find this a teapot tempest. Like many attractive athletes before and since, Jackie and Cherine are teasing their fans. Hardly a "scandal."

Karl reMarks Summarizes the Arab Spring

A short, pre-emptive history of the Arab Spring

Karl Sharro ("Karl reMarks") offers us "A short, pre-emptive history of the Arab Spring."

A short, pre-emptive history of the Arab SpringKar

He explains:

As anyone who has ever read one knows, history books can be very tedious. They are also full of speculation and guesswork because they’re normally written many years after the fact. Having lived through the ‘Arab Spring’, or the Arab Spring as it is sometimes known, I decided to spare future generations the ordeal of figuring out what precisely happened between 2011 and 2017, which is when the Arab Spring, or the ‘Arab Spring’ officially ended. To that end, I wrote this short, pre-emptive history that will render all future speculation about the subject entirely useless and leave future generations with more time on their hands to figure out what the point of Stonehenge was.

 Read the whole thing.

Nostalgia to Start the Week: King Farouq Marries Queen Farida, 1938

I used to end the week with a nostalgia post; let's start this week with one: a newsreel of King Farouq's marriage to Safinaz Zulfiqar, renamed Queen Farida in 1938. (Farouq's father, King Fuad I, liked his own initial so much he gave all his children names beginning with "F"; Farouq not only did the same with his four children but even renamed his first wife. His second wife would keep her birth name of Nariman, however.) Farida bore Farouq three daughters; he divorced her in 1948 and married Nariman Sadek in 1951. She bore his son and heir, Ahmad Fuad, to whom Farouq abdicated at the time of the 1952 revolution. The infant Fuad II was technically the last King of Egypt until the monarchy was abolished in 1953.

The march music providing the soundtrack of this video is the Royalist National Anthem of the era, in use from 1936 until about 1960 (with changed words after 1952), and one of at least four, perhaps more, tunes that have served as Egypt's national anthem. This one has a bit of notoriety since the large number of British troops in Egypt during World War II heard it played at the end of cinema presentations and put their own words to it. words unflattering to Egyptians, to Farida and Farouq, and also grossly obscene, sexist, racist, imperialist, and offensive in other ways, not to mention carrying lèse-majesté to new heights. (Typical soldier stuff in other words.)  I won't mar the wedding festivities below by quoting them here (that's what Google is for: search for "The Ballad of King Farouk and Queen Farida," or similar titles). And don't say I didn't give you fair warning how many ways it's offensive. Perhaps a post for another time.

Embedded from the Misr al-An wa Zaman ("Egypt today and in the past") nostalgia Facebook site. Not sure if the link will work if you don't have a Facebook account, but let's give it a try.

Post by ‎مصر الان وزمان/ اهل مصر زمان اول صفحه للصور النادره ع الفيس بوك‎.

Algerian Power Struggle: "Toufik" said to Prefer Firing to Retirement

The confrontation between Algeria's President and its most powerful intelligence official (see yesterday's post) continues: this report claims sources close to General Mohamrd Mediene (known by his revolutionary nom de guerre as "Toufik"), would prefer to be fired to being retired or resigning. Even the picture with the story is debatable since, as I noted yesterday, there are no verified photos of the man, so if you don't even know what he looks like, how can you verify the source? What's clear is the escalation continues apace.

Let the Games Begin: But Remember Those Who Were There First

Kizbech Tuguzhoko

Kizbech Tuguzhoko (also Tuguzhoko Kizbech), the fellow at left, may prove to be a specter haunting the Sochi Olympics. A member of the Shapsug tribe of the Circassian or Adyghe people ("Circassian" also applies to speakers of the related Kabardian language), he led the resistance to Russian expansion into Circassia until his death in 1840. A generation later, the conquest was complete, and in 1864 the Russian state began the systematic expulsion of most of the Circassian population. That was in 1864, 150 years before the Olympics will open in Sochi, the Russian town that arose in the old Shapsug territory. Most Circassians settled in the Ottoman Empire; many Shapsugs settled in Amman, Jordan, which has more Circassians today than Sochi does. Perhaps 1.5 million people were relocated from various parts of the Caucasus when Russia conquered their territories. In Turkey, Jordan, and other former Ottoman lands, some members of the Circassian diaspora have protested Sochi as an Olympic venue, as I've noted previously. But Sochi has also led to a revived consciousness of Circassian identity elsewhere, as in this article on Circassians in Turkey.

Now, no one really expects the Russians to promote the Sochi Games as "The Sesquicentennial of Circassian Ethnic Cleansing." But I also will be surprised if today's opening ceremonies even show any hint of those who were pushed out 150 years ago. Some in the Circassian diaspora have even claimed that the Olympic site is built over the site of a mass grave from the Russo-Circassian War, but I do not know if that is the case. What you're unlikely to see at the opening is a lot of Circassians.

P.N. Grunitzky, The Mountaineers Leave the Aul*

The Adyghe can be traced back as a continuous culture more or less to the Neolithic, but after a 100 Years War from the 1760s to the 1860s, those left alive were transferred by the victorious Tsarist Russian regime to the Ottoman Empire, which had at least a tenuous theoretical sovereignty over the region. (Though as Russia has learned in nearby Chechnya and Dagestan, mountaineers in the Caucasus are hard to control effectively.) (* Picture note: An aul was a fortified village.)

There is still an Adyghia Republic within the Russian Federation, but it does not include Sochi. There are still many Circassians in Russia, but not on the Black Sea Coast where Sochi stands. The size of the diaspora is hard to estimate, due to intermarriage and the fact that the Arabic and Turkish words Tcherkess, variously spelled, is sometimes used to refer to Chechens and other Caucasians speaking unrelated languages.

Unsurprisingly, the biggest population is in Turkey, the nearest part of the Ottoman realm to Old Circassia; in the Arab Levant, Jordan has the biggest population by far, but there are significant populations in Lebanon, Israel, Syria, and to a lesser extent Iraq, the Arabian Peninsula, and even Egypt. One still meets the occasional red-haired and blue-eyed Turk or Arab who is stereotypically Circassian, but most aren't that distinguishable from their neighbors. But they remember their past.

This CBC article looks at the way indigenous culture was handled t the 2010 Vancouver games and quotes:

Canadian scholar John Colarusso argues that Russia should take a similar approach to the Vancouver Olympics in its opening ceremony – prominently embracing and showcasing indigenous culture.

The 2010 Vancouver Games marked the first time in the Olympics history that indigenous people were recognized as official partners. Four First Nations bands also played prominent roles in the opening ceremony.

Well, yes, but British Columbia's history of treatment of its indigenous people, whom it now calls First Nations, is very different from that of Russia in the Caucasus, or for that matter a certain neighbor of Canada's to the south. (Hint: where did Sitting Bull go after the Custer battle? Canada, of course, which took him in.). It would be wonderful if Sochi emulated Vancouver. And if Vladimir Putin rode at the head of the opening parade on a unicorn. I don't expect we'll see either.

Next fantasy? We can, however, remember that Sochi was built on land which until just 150 years ago (again let me emphasize the 150th anniversary is THIS YEAR, which particularly offends Circassians).

Old Circassia around 1740: (this and all other pictures in this post are from Wikimedia Commons.)

Bouteflika-"Toufik" Dispute Intensifies in Algeria

The increasingly open feud between Algerian President Bouteflika and the longtime head of the DRS Military Intelligence Service Gen. Mohamed Mediene (known as "Toufik") seems to be heating up and perhaps heading for  showdown. After FLN Party Secretary-General Amar Saadani recently said that Mediene had failed in multiple crises and should step down, the General's defenders  have been hitting back. One wing of the FLN Party now says it will no longer recognize Saadani, and parts of the press have been widely critical of Saadani's comments.

But nobody believes that Saadani was speaking for himself only; sine late last year, Bouteflika has sought to reduce he influence of the DRS, which is a key component of what Algerians refer to as le Pouvoir and Westerners often call "the Generals." "Toufik" is widely believed to oppose Boiuteflika's running for a fourth term, and the DRS has gone after some Bouteflika allies for alleged corruption; since last year there have been reports that Bouteflika has reshuffled the intelligence community to reduce the power of the DRS, which Mediene has headed since its founding in 1990 (and headed its predecessor before that)..

Appropriately for a figure who works in the shadows, even the exact looks of the General are disputed (link is in French) and many published photos are disputable at best.

Now there is growing speculation in the French media that Bouteflika may intend to retire not only "Toufik" but many other senior DRS officials (link in French); like the President the General is in his 70s and a law permits the President to retire officers over age 66 with 42 years of service; Mediene has been in the military since independence. Whether Bouteflika can succeed if he tries is not so clear; the fact that Mediene, or those he controls and influences, are fighting back does seem clear, though. Presumably the move would come soon, as Bouteflika must declare by early March if he is in fact running in the April Presidential elections. At least one report says the decision has already been made (link in French).

Turkish Parliament Passes Controversial Internet Law

Turkey's Parliament has passed a controversial bill that includes new controls over the Internet, despite criticism from Turkish journalists, the political opposition, and the European Union. It would give the country's telecommunications agency the power to block access to specific Internet content within four hours, with no court order required.

Critics claim that the bill is in response to revelations published on social media pointing to government corruption, and that the intention is to block further revelations.

OK, Who Saw This Coming? Sisi Reportedly Says He Will Run.

Well, if this surprises you you haven't been paying attention: Sisi reportedly tells Kuwait's Al-Siyasa that he will run for President.

Ahram Online is quoting it, and it's not clear why he'd tell the Kuwaitis first (well, maybe it is on reflection), but even if it's still not official, no surprises here.

[UPDATE: The Army is denying it's official. Sort of, anyway.]

Sheikh Khalifa's Health

Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed, President of the UAE and Ruler of Abu Dhabi, is recovering well from his January 24 stroke, according to Crown Prince Sheikh Muhammad bin Zayed,, who yesterday described the Ruler's health as "stable and reassuring."

It had previously been announced that Sheikh Khalifa underwent surgery immediately after his stroke last month.

Just When You Feared Egyptian Democracy was Becoming a Farce, Sama ElMasry is Running for Parliament

So you were basically right. Not only are they jailing journalists for "damaging Egypt's reputation" (hint:  jailing journalists damages Egypt's reputation more than journalists possibly can), but now Sama ElMasry has announced she is running for Parliament, and will "expose" the Muslim Brotherhood, which seems to have more than enough troubles already. (History repeating itself as farce yet again.)

Sama's the One on the Left (Facebook)

You may remember Sama, usually referred to in the foreign media as a "famous Egyptian belly-dancer," but who is better-known as a self-promoter, satirist and foe of Islamists than for her dance. (She is famous though, and Egyptian, and dances, but that's not why she's famous.) She first came to the world's attention in 2012 in what may be the best headline the original Egypt Independent ever ran: "'Nose Job' MP Files Complaint Against Belly Dancer Who Says She's His Wife." That link is apparently dead now, but I blogged about it here. In 2013 she rose considerably above her limited fame as a former news presenter who tried to make it as an actress and belly-dancer/singer, appearing in three films and releasing three songs, none of them hits. But then she began a series of satirical YouTube videos making fun of Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood and, in her most viral video of all, skewering President Obama, Ambassador Anne Patterson, and America as pro-Morsi. I dealt at some length with the phenomenon here.

But she's ready to heed her country's call in its hour of need. She's going to run for Parliament. She's already started a new show on a new channel explicitly calling itself Fallul ("remnants," the term for the old regime supporters of Mubarak), in which she attacks the Brotherhood. She's a Sisi supporter and plans to run in Sharqiyya Governorate, Morsi's home province.

I don't know why she receives so much attention, but then I can't figure out what Kim Kardashian is famous for, either. It will draw media attention, which otherwise might be concentrating on all those jailed journalists.

A Roundup of Egypt Links

Thursday and Friday I was pretty much hors de combat with a virus of some sort, so I'm playing catch-up a bit. Here's a quick few links on Egypt:

• Don't miss Joshua Stacher's "Can a Myth Rule a Nation?" at Foreign Affairs. Josh fully recognizes the apparent inevitability of General (excuse me, Field Marshal) Sisi, but he also sees the narrowness of the base and the shallowness of the program. When the man on the white horse dismounts, how does he solve Egypt's problems?

•  Amid rumors that Mohamed Heikal may advise the Sisi campaign, Zeinobia unearths a piece by Heikal about an interview he had in 1967 with Field Marshal Montgomery of Alamein about Abdel Hakim Amer and "political" Field Marshals, on the eve of Amer's disgrace and suicide: "The political Marshal is about the naked Emperor."

• Bad news:  "Minister of Antiquities Reveals Full Account of Damage to Museum of Islamic Art." (Daily News Egypt). Pretty bad indeed.

• Still more bad news on the heritage front:  "11 Recent Cultural Disasters in Egypt." (CairObserver).  (Even worse news: this list is nowhere near complete.)

• A little lighter: "Lexicon of a Revolution's Insults." (MadaMasr). "Insults" is the wrong word here, since some are compliments: more like the vocabulary or jargon of the Revolution, from the obvious Fallul to "lime-squeezers" (عاصري الليمون) for secularists who voted for the Muslim Brotherhood. (Really a citron more than a true lime, but let that go for now.)

Umm Kulthum Left the Building 39 Years Ago Today

A lot of Arabs, and pretty much all Egyptians, agree that Umm Kulthum was the greatest Arab singer of all time. Her death on February 3, 1975, 39 years ago today, did not dim her fame, and her music remains popular. Her funeral procession rivaled Nasser's; her former home is marked by a statue, and there is a museum (bearing her title Kawkab al-Sharq, "Star of the East") displaying her memorabilia. Like Elvis, her fame has survived her by decades, though neither they nor their music otherwise resemble each other.

All her performances were lengthy; in this one the singing doesn't begin for some time.

Barry Rubin Has Died at Age 64

Prof. Barry Rubin, head of the GLORIA Center and prolific author on Middle Eastern subjects, has died of cancer at the age of only 64.  Though Barry and I rarely if ever saw eye-to-eye on political issues, I have known him since we were both in grad school at Georgetown in the 1970s, and I respect him as a scholar and as a strong advocate for the issues he believed in, even when I did not share them.

American-born and educated, Barry eventually chose to relocate permanently to Israel (with occasional visiting fellowships in the US), where he made a career as both an academic and political commentator; in more recent years he has developed a following among US conservatives.

My condolences to his family and colleagues. The Jerusalem Post obituary here, JTA's here, and The Washington Institute here.

UPDATE: A nice tribute by Lee Smith at Tablet Magazine.

As More Endorse Bouteflika, New Attacks on "Toufik"

I'm over my virus and back to normal blogging, I hope. Algerian President Bouteflika still hasn't officially said if he's running agin in April, but he keeps piling up the endorsements; in additiion to the two major ruling parties, the FLN and the RND, he's also being endorsed by a raft of smaller allied parties.

Another sign that the Bouteflika forces are flexing their muscles: an apparent new round in the ongoing power struggle between the President's allies and the powerful military intelligence chief. You may recall that last year in a reshuffle of the security forces, Bouteflika reportedly reduced the power base of the powerful DRS military intelligence service and its chief, Lt. Gen. Mohamed Mediene, usually known by his nom de guerre Toufik, Now, FLN Secretary-General Amar Saadani is quoted as saying that Mediene should have resigned after a string of what he characterized as "intelligence failures." He also criticized the continuing influence of the DRS. Whether Bouteflika does run himself or is merely preparing the ground for a successor,t appears that the power struggle with Mediene may be coming to the fore again.