We've seen a fair amount of commentary belittling the importance of Rouhani's election in Iran, along the lines of "The Supreme Leader has all the power so it doesn't matter." Gary Sick takes a somewhat contrarian position:
"Is the Supreme Leader Really So Supreme?" A few excerpts:
With the surprising Iranian election over, and the moderate Hassan
Rouhani elected by a clear majority, a new narrative is emerging. It
asserts that absolutely nothing has changed, that Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, let the election proceed for his own
devious reasons, and that only he can make decisions about Iran’s
strategic policies, regardless of who is president.
This is a facile and self-serving argument. After Friday’s election,
which reversed all predictions, those of us who watch Iran closely
should ask ourselves whether the supreme leader is as supreme as he
pretends . . .
But it is not only the election. Just look at the record. Over the
past 15 years, Iran has pursued a series of quite different negotiating
strategies with the West: from a temporary suspension of enrichment
under the new president-elect, to an on-again-off-again offer to
compromise on 20 percent enrichment that resulted in a formal offer via
Turkey and Brazil, then a full court stall and “resistance” strategy
under the stewardship of the now-forgettable Saeed Jalili. The one
constant during all these episodes was the unquestioned supremacy of one
man.
This is the same man who reportedly mobilized Revolutionary Guard
support for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2005 to avoid the threat of a new
reformist surge. He then presided over the hasty coronation of the same
man, under an even more immediate threat of reform, in 2009, proclaiming
the results “divine.” He then turned around and began systematically
stripping all powers from the recipient of that divine judgment,
humiliating him and pondering openly the possibility of doing away
entirely with the very office of the presidency. Eventually he came to
view his divine choice as part of a “deviant current.”
Read the whole thing: agree or disagree, it's a useful corrective to the emerging conventional wisdom.
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