Erdoğan's Second Roll of the Dice

Just a reminder: Postings will be sparse during my current two week vacation.

My vacation posting has been spotty  and largely devoted to historical themes, rather than current commentary; when I'm back on the clock next week I'll do some catching up, but meanwhile it seems appropriate to comment on this week's major (if expected) development: the scheduling of a new round of Turkish elections for November 1.

The june elections deprived the ruling AKP of its majority and blocked President
Erdoğan's hopes of amending the Constitution to produce a strong presidency. The AKP no longer had a majority in the Grand National Assembly, and weeks and months of negotiations with opposition parties failed to produce a viable coalition, so it had become obvious that new elections would be required.

But will Erdoğan win his gamble this time around, or will the opposition parties, encouraged by the blow already administered by the AKP, try even harder. I'm sure they'll try, but the first round put
Erdoğan on notice that the AKP is vulnerable. I leave detailed analysis to the Turkey experts, but I expect the next couple of months of campaigning could produce a wild ride for Turkey.