The Ashraf Marwan Case Revisited: Still Murky

I dealt with the mysteries of the Ashraf Marwan case in passing last year, as an aside in an obituary of Mossad head Meir Amit, but now a British inquest has been reexamining the case, though reportedly its findings, due perhaps tomorrow, will be inclonclusive. This has been one of the most mysterious cloak-and-dagger tales to come out of the Middle East, worthy of a spy thriller, involving the mysterious death of an Egyptian billionaire who was Nasser's son in law, and may also have been either Mossad's greatest coup or an Egyptian double agent, or perhaps just an Egyptian agent.

For background, here's his Wikipedia bio, and here's The New York Times' account of his death in 2007. But to summarize: Ashraf Marwan was an Egyprian businessman who in the 1960s married Mona Abdel Nasser, daughter of President Gamal Abdel Nasser. This opened, as might be expected, opportunities for advancement. Marwan became a trusted aide to Anwar Sadat during the latter's presidency, and remained prominent in the Mubarak years. During the 1980s, when I was covering the Egyptian defense industry, he headed the Arab Organization for Industrialization, one of its main umbrella groups. His business dealings, which included some partnerships with Muhammad Fayed, helped make him a billionaire.

What else he was remains a matter of debate. For years, there has been speculation about who the "special source" was who informed Israel on the eve of the October 1973 war that an attack was imminent. Although surprise was still largely achieved, the warning prevented a complete surprise, and Israeli accounts always described the source as a very senior Arab figure. From the 1990s onward Israeli leaks suggested it was Marwan. But even when such allegations appeared in public, Marwan contnued to enjoy good relations with the Egyptian government, leading some Israelis to suspect he had actually been an Egyptian double agent. The fact that Israel was led to believe the attack would come at dusk rather than at midday was noted as suggesting the source did not tell all he knew.

On June 27, 2007, Marwan fell to his death from the fifth floor balcony of his London apartment. The circumstances were suspicious from the start, and the family has always insisted he was not suicidal; in fact, he was preparing to fly to the United States. In addition, the memoir he had been writing at the time of his death disappeared at the time; and the police could not locate the shoes he was wearing when he fell. There were allegations two men had been seen with him. (The fact that at least three other prominent Egyptian figures have died in London falls from balconies adds to the conspiracy theories.)

But sometimes conspiracies are not just theories, and finally the British decided on a new coroner's inquest int he case. The Ha'aretz story by Yossi Melman takes for granted that he was Mossad's source for the start of the 1973 war; it leaves open whether he was a double agent also working for Egypt. The Guardian talks to Mona Nasser about her husband; she blames Mossad. An account of the hearings in The Daily Telegraph notes that when he died President Mubarak said he had performed patriotic services that could not yet be revealed. And as the Wikipedia bio notes, his funeral in Cairo was attended by Gamal Mubarak and Omar Suleiman and presided over by the Sheikh al-Azhar: not how you send off an enemy spy.

The conclusions will no doubt be inconclusive. But it's still a fascinating tale.