Lebanese and Iranian Election Readings

I may have more thoughts on the speech later, but in the meantime I thought I'd offer some suggested readings for the upcoming elections in Lebanon (Sunday) and Iran (next week).

First, Lebanon:

• A new issue of Carnegie's Arab Reform Bulletin offers Oussama Safa on "After the Parliamentary Elections."
  

• A detailed guide to the Lebanese elections, in English, put out by the Interior Ministry. The format is a little odd (a PDF would be easier to handle) but it's worth looking at.
  

• A lengthy piece in the UAE newspaper The National by Elias Muhanna (who blogs as Qifa Nabki) on General Aoun and his followers. Again, as I've said several times, a victory for "March 8," if it occurs, will likely see Hizbullah hold its own but Aoun gain seats, so before anyone panics about a "Hizbullah victory" they should consider how Aoun fits into things.
  

• And after the fact, at MEI, Graeme Bannerman and Bilal Saab will be analyzing the elections on June 10.
  

Next, Iran:

• At MEI, a Policy Brief by Walter Posch on Prospects for Iran's 2009 Presidential Elections. Introductory page and summary at the link given; full PDF file here.
  

• At Carnegie, Karim Sadjapour answers questions about the Iranian Elections.
  

• The BBC reports on Iran's first televised Presidential debate involving an incumbent. Ahmadinejad against Mousavi. But I'm also seeing reports that Mohsen Rezai is nibbling away at Ahmadinejad's support on the hardline right. While as I've said before, Ahmadinejad is likely to win (no Iranian President has lost his bid for a second term), but I don't rule out a surprise.