Is Another Gaza War Imminent?

By most standards, last year's Operation Cast Lead in Gaza a year ago was a public relations disaster for Israel as well as a human tragedy for Gaza; from the Goldstone Report to the European Union there was a chorus of criticism of the Israeli campaign, and if anything Hamas emerged stronger. Even some Israelis acknowledge this. (I know, Bradley Burston is American born.)

But there is a lot of traffic out there about an imminent round two. Burston (again) here. Al-Ahram in Arabic) here. Daily Star here. Hizbullah's Al-Manar, quoting Hamas, here.

Is it real or is it Memorex? Right now I think it's mostly posturing. But I'm not certain, and neither is anyone else.

What is clear is that if Israel were to do a Cast Lead 2.0, beyond the fact that it might further exacerbate the horrors of the Gaza siege (and I know Hamas is as responsible for that as anyone, but I'm less worried about assigning blame than assuaging human suffering), this time Egypt would be blamed more widely in the Arab world, given the controversy over the Egyptian "steel wall" between Sinai and Gaza. If Egypt is seen as blocking Gaza's only Arab land outlet while Israel tightens the siege and invades, it would be seen by most Arabs as far more complicit in the campaign than a year ago — and lately, Egypt has been increasingly confrontational with Hamas, to the point that its role as an honest broker between Hamas and the PA is in jeopardy.

Let's hope it's posturing. Operation Cast Lead ended last January 18, two days before Barack Obama was inaugurated as President. He didn't have to deal with it then, but would throw a further wrench in the works of the start-stop-stuttering peace process, such as it is.