It's been five and a half years, the international Special Tribunal for Lebanon has chased down leads pointing first to Syria, thennto Hizbullah, and the mystery of who killed Rafiq Hariri remains unsolved, though indications that Hizbullah is about to be named sent King ‘Abdullah and Bashar al-Asad on their strange allied visit on Friday.
Relax: it wasn't Syria, it wasn't Hizbullah, it wasn't Colonel Mustard in the Library with the Candlestick: the eminent detective Sherlock Nasrullah has solved the case: It was (drumroll) . . . Israel! And he'll reveal the conclusive evidence of this . . . well, soon. And Qifa Nabki comments here.
Now, there are a lot of questions still open about this case. I realize the STL itself shifted its own focus from Syria to Hizbullah, and maybe they are in fact not to blame: most Mideastern assassinations have a Murder on the Orient Express theme, where everybody had a motive.
But why would Israel want to kill Hariri in 2005? He'd left office. He was no enemy; he'd done much to stabilize Lebanon. This is the kind of old-fashioned Arab "blame everything on Israel" syndrome that has plagued the region so long.
Nothing more right now.
Wednesday, August 4, 2010
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What possibly could be Israel's motives?
Indirectly solves Israel's Hizbollah problem. Can't be defeated militarily. Political power growing. First discredit. Then leading to disarmament.
A weakening of the Syrian strategic position. Removal of troops from Lebanon. A pro American therefore pro-Israeli government in Lebanon. Discredit Syria in the larger Arab world. Flame differences between Shiahs and Sunnis.
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