Abyei Dispute Threatening Sudan Solution

A Sudanese government statement that it will be impossible to hold a planned referendum in the Abyei region by January 9 could jeopardize what had looked like a peaceful separation of southern Sudan from the rest of the country as the end point of the country's peace process. The South holds a referendum on the same day and is generally expected to opt for full independence. Abyei, which is on the border between north and south, is supposed to hold a separate referendum on which way it, and its oilfields, would go.

Lately there have been many statements of concern coming from Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, and from the recent Arab/African summit in Libya, raising alarm about the possibility of southern secession. Some point to the conflict-ridden history of Eritrea and Ethiopia since Eritrean independence, the only successful secession from a state based on inherited colonial-era borders.

Should the referendum not come off in time, or Abyei not be settled before southern secession, the possibility of a resumption of warfare seems likely.