More Thoughts on Another Mubarak Term

Amr El Shobaki in Al-Masry al-Youm ponders, "Will Mubarak Run Again in 2011?"

Rather as I did, he does not take Ali Eddin Hilal's recent expression of confidence that the President will seek a sixth term as definitive. He notes:

Helal's uncertain statements about Gamal’s prospects in fact tell us more about the current political situation than his seemingly conclusive remarks about Mubarak’s re-nomination . Helal’s latest pronouncement will certainly open the door for all kinds of speculation about the future. But of all the possible scenarios that can unfold next year, Mubarak’s re-nomination now seems the least likely.

Now one element, clearly, has been the clear lack of popular enthusiasm for the prospect of a Gamal Mubarak succession. If the recent wave of pro-Gamal posters were a trial balloon, they seem to have been a leaden one. Husni Mubarak may not be the charismatic speaker that Gamal Abdel Nasser was, but Gamal tends to come across as having all the charisma of a banker, which is what he was before he started to dabble in politics. And, since his father has not personally indicated he won't run, Gamal can't seem too eager. So the poster campaigns are done by his allies in the Party leadership, presumably.

Many Egyptian commentators have noted that after his trip to Washington with his father, Gamal stopped making public appearances. Some think this is another sign that the inheritance project has failed. I'm guessing it's a bit early to write Gamal off completely, but note two things:

1. Gamal is by no means the unanimous choice of the entire leadership of the National Democratic Party. The "Old Guard" of the NDP has shown no outward enthusiasm; Gamal's business cronies and younger allies in the Party leadership seem to be the core of his support.
2. As I and everyone else have noted frequently, no one is going to be anointed the successor without the (at least tacit) approval of the Armed Forces and the security services. Yet those bodies, never very talkative to begin with, have been utterly silent on Gamal. A combination of a belief that the country needs a military President (an idea that has appeal to many beyond the uniformed services: see my comments on the ‘Orabi theme) and doubts about a civilian with few obvious qualifications other than his name may be at work here, though no one really is certain. What is clear is there's no bandwagon for Gamal in the uniformed services. (Some have hinted that State Security, in the Interior Ministry, is more pro-Gamal than the Army, but if they have evidence it isn't very visible.)

So, arguably, Gamal's star is fading, or at least refusing to rise, and Hilal's statement may be more a reassurance of continuity than a real statement of probability. Once the Parliamentary elections are past (November 28), the countdown for the Presidential elections will begin.

Lately some Israeli media have picked up on older speculation that ‘Omar Suleiman might be named Vice President, succeed for a year or so, and then hand off to Gamal. That strikes me as a fantasy. If a military man succeeds, even temporarily, Gamal is history. His power base goes when his father goes.