ICG on Sudan Referendum

This blog hasn't devoted much time to the approaching referendum in Sudan on January 9, and the real probability of a separation of the southern Sudan likely to follow it. Unless various major issues of citizenship, water, and control of the Abyei region are resolved by then, the dangers of conflict or even civil war cannot be completely excluded. As the referendum approaches, there's growing apprehension in neighboring Arab countries about the first potential secession in the region since Eritrea left Ethiopia.

I'll be watching the issue more closely as the deadline approaches, but the International Crisis Group has just released a report on the issue which can serve as a good backgrounder and analysis, including a look at potential scenarios. The summary is here; the full report in PDF is here; the first link also has links for French and Arabic versions.