The STL Nears its Indictments

Once again, the Special Tribunal for Lebanon seems on the verge of issuing its indictments, expected to include several senior Hizbullah figures. I last discussed the issue a couple of weeks ago, and am not sure I have much new to say.

Marc Lynch, on the other hand, does. He wonders if the STL has any credibility today, or if it's just a "zombie" panel from an earlier reality. And he asks:

What are we to make of its really quite shocking reversal? Why should we consider the evidence now pointing to Hezbollah credible given the seeming collapse of the supposedly iron-clad case against Syria? Most discussion of this fairly obvious point that I've seen in the Western media has been framed around Hezbollah's "efforts to discredit the STL." But the STL's credibility problems seem a bit more real than that. If Hezbollah were really responsible than a strong case could be made for pursuing justice regardless of the consequences. But from the outside, it really does look an awful lot like the STL is being used as a political weapon against Hezbollah at a time of mounting fears of its power and of allegedly rising Iranian influence in Lebanon.

That's the problem. Caesar's wife is no longer above suspicion, and the STL shifted suspects in mid-investigation. One can hardly blame former security chief Jamil al-Sayyed, unpleasant a person though he may be, for demanding that those "false witnesses" who kept him in detention for years without charge, be punished. It's not just an explosive situation because of Hizbullah's activities: many Arab observers have seen the STL's dramatic shift of course and see it as politicized, and that undercuts both its credibility and that of the UN.