Thursday, November 12, 2009
Lost Army of Cambyses Found?
A $79,000 Falcon
That must be some bird.
Here's the Saudi Gazette article with the original story. The seller says, "The price for falcons seems to still be on the rise, even though there are plenty of other more modern and effective ways to hunt these days." Yes, but none so traditional.
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
The Eleventh Hour of the Eleventh Day of the Eleventh Month
Though Turkey (well, the Ottoman Empire) left the war a little bit earlier than November 11 (the Mudros Armistice was October 30), it was the war that really made the modern Middle East as well, or perhaps laid the groundwork for most of the battles of today: the Balfour Declaration, Hussein/McMahon correspondence, and the sore that still plagues Armenians and Turks, not to mention Greeks and Turks, and most of the territorial disputes in the region. I've always wished I'd used the title The Peace to End All Peace, but David Fromkin got there first in a highly readable book on the postwar Middle East settlements. (Actually, the line was first used, I believe, in 1066 and All That.)
I already posted this video in an earlier post on a different subject, and also wrote about the subject here when Britain left Basra, but it seems appropriate again to post that haunting British equivalent to Taps, The Last Post, since this video is actually a Remembrance Day video anyway:
For many years, and perhaps still in parts of Europe, people would observe two minutes of silence at 11 am on 11/11. If it has taken you two minutes to read this, perhaps you just did as well.
Unfortunately, the war did not end all wars, and may have made several inevitable. But remembrance may help, in some small way, to remind us of what was once one of the major observances in the Western world.
Catching Up: Lebanon's New Cabinet
While I was hors de combat with our Annual Conference, the Middle East went right ahead with its usual production of more events than it is able to consume locally. The June (remember June?) elections in Lebanon finally produced a Cabinet, and it only took till November. Since today's a holiday (and I'm late to the game anyway, having been at the Conference), I'm going to let other folks handle most of the coverage. There's thoughtful analysis at Qifa Nabki, (and read the comments to his post as well), with more doubtless to come. There's a lot available on The Daily Star's Lebanon pages, as well as their editorial pages. I'll let them comment on the Phalangist (Kata'ib) threat to boycott. And if they're too pro-Western for you, here's Hizbullah's Lebanon section.The only other comment I'll make just now is to repost a brief exchange in the comments section of my earlier post on Lebanon:
When they sent Samir Geagea to prison some years back (charged with burning a church of all things), a Lebanon-watcher of my acquaintance remarked that of all the things Geagea was guilty of, it was ironic that he served time for one thing of which he was probably innocent. (Or maybe "not guilty." I'm not sure "innocent" applies to any of the warlords of the civil war era.)
- JR said...
What does it say about the new Lebanese Govt that the Ministry of Justice is in the hands of Samir Geagea's party?
- Tuesday, November 10, 2009 7:45:00 AM EST
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- Michael Collins Dunn said...
JR:
Well, Geagea's personally quite familiar with the country's justice system, from the inside.- Tuesday, November 10, 2009 11:26:00 PM EST
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That's it for now.
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Annual Conference Over
Tomorrow's veteran's day and a holiday in the US so I'm not sure if I'll post much, though I might try to catch up a little. Have to do that with the real work, too.
Monday, November 9, 2009
Something there is that doesn't love a wall ...
First point:
Second point:
Something there is that doesn't love a wall,
That sends the frozen-ground-swell under it
And spills the upper boulders in the sun,
And makes gaps even two can pass abreast.
The work of hunters is another thing:
I have come after them and made repair
Where they have left not one stone on a stone,
But they would have the rabbit out of hiding,
To please the yelping dogs. The gaps I mean,
No one has seen them made or heard them made,
But at spring mending-time we find them there.
I let my neighbor know beyond the hill;
And on a day we meet to walk the line
And set the wall between us once again.
We keep the wall between us as we go.
To each the boulders that have fallen to each.
And some are loaves and some so nearly balls
We have to use a spell to make them balance:
"Stay where you are until our backs are turned!"
We wear our fingers rough with handling them.
Oh, just another kind of outdoor game,
One on a side. It comes to little more:
There where it is we do not need the wall:
He is all pine and I am apple orchard.
My apple trees will never get across
And eat the cones under his pines, I tell him.
He only says, "Good fences make good neighbors."
Spring is the mischief in me, and I wonder
If I could put a notion in his head:
"Why do they make good neighbors? Isn't it
Where there are cows? But here there are no cows.
Before I built a wall I'd ask to know
What I was walling in or walling out,
And to whom I was like to give offense.
Something there is that doesn't love a wall,
That wants it down." I could say "Elves" to him,
But it's not elves exactly, and I'd rather
He said it for himself. I see him there,
Bringing a stone grasped firmly by the top
In each hand, like an old-stone savage armed.
He moves in darkness as it seems to me,
Not of woods only and the shade of trees.
He will not go behind his father's saying,
And he likes having thought of it so well
He says again, "Good fences make good neighbors."
Robert Frost, of course.
Third point:

That would be the "separation barrier" between Abu Dis and Jerusalem.
Any questions?
Annual Conference: Blogging Interlude
I hope to see some of you there. Audio podcasts will be available online at mei.edu by the end of the week, perhaps sooner; written transcripts and video will follow. There is a chance that someone will be able to tweet live during the conference so you may want to watch the Twitter feed.
In the meantime, in my absence, there's plenty going on in the Mideast. Until after the Conference, you're on your own.
The Iraqi Election Law Finally Passes
Later than its original mid-October deadline, Iraq's Parliament has finally passed the critical electoral law that is essential for holding elections in January. The thorny problem has always been Kirkuk. Because I'm rolling into our Annual Conference I'll defer comment and, for details, direct you to Norwegian Iraq expert Reidar Visser's detailed assessment here, and of course Juan Cole is on it as well. Also check Visser's Iraq and Gulf Analysis blog for lots of background on Kirkuk.
Lebanon: Really on the Verge This Time, Maybe.
The Lebanese media are in general agreement that the basic deal in Lebanon has been reached; it will be a 15-10- 5 split in which the 30 Cabinet seats will be 15 from March 14, 10 from the Opposition, and five appointed directly by the President. There are reportedly still some hitches, mostly in the distribution of Christian seats within March 14.
And Hizbullah not only seems on board, they're even claiming credit for the deal.
Yes, the elections were in June. Yes, it's November.
A Busy Weekend as I Shift Into Annual Conference Mode
- Abu Mazen following up his announcement he won't run with a threat to dissolve the Palestinian Authority and declare the peace process dead;
- Lebanon actually, finally, five months after the election, maybe definitely (soon!) about to form a government;
- Iraq finally passing an electoral law; and
- a senior Iranian official seemingly backing off on the nuclear deal.
Sunday, November 8, 2009
Another Blogger Down: Nous sommes tous Fatma
I don't like posting Sundays, but there's another Blogger down.The Streisand effect is kicking in again. Another Blogger has been arrested, this time in Tunisia. Her blog, known as Fatma Arabicca, was at this address, which now brings up a "blog not found" response from Blogger. There's now a Facebook group in support of her, and apparently a different one here, and a lot of attention in the Francophone and Arabophone blogosphere. One of the accusations against her is that she is also secretly behind the blog Debat Tunisie, which has some pretty biting cartoons about the recent elections; it is still online. And there's a logo for blogs and support groups (at top left; right click to download; I'm sure no one will object to your posting it).
You may recall that one of the problems with the Streisand effect is that it calls attention to what might otherwise be a minor story, as in my earlier post in which the suspension of a Moroccan newspaper for reporting on the King's health raised a lot more questions about the King's health than did the original story in a publication I'd never heard of.

I'd also never heard of Fatma Riahi before, or of her blog, or certainly not of the scurrilous cartoons at Debat Tunisie (let me repeat that link: Debat Tunisie). It really is scurrilous: it runs anti-government cartoons like the one on the right. (Which, if I continued never to hear of it, most of you never would have seen.)
I would (of course) never reproduce such an insulting cartoon except as an illustration of a news development. Such as the arrest of a blogger. But Debat Tunisie does. I'm sure you'd never heard of it till now, right? I hadn't. (Oh, I'm starting to repeat myself: sorry, that's Debat Tunisie.) I'm pretty sure authoritarian states just don't get the Internet. You know I rather like Tunisia as a country; I've blogged on that, and I take none of it back. But I still think you should have a right, and Tunisians should have a right, to read a site like Debat Tunisie.
Have I mentioned Debat Tunisie?
Now, I have no idea if Fatma is behind Debat Tunisie, but I know that as a blogger I don't like it when bloggers (or journalists) are arrested.
She was apparently arrested on November 2. If she was the only person behind Debat Tunisie, then who posted this cartoon on Debat Tunisie on November 6?
A cartoon which, since it's possible that Debat Tunisie might at some point bring up the "blog not found" that Arabicca now does, I guess I should reproduce for posterity:
The flamingo (I guess, or whatever it is) has a sign in English (I'm not Fatma) while the (not sure: the ground itself?) has one in French saying "We are all Fatma!" I have no idea why two languages (or a flamingo: could it be a stork, pretty common in North Africa?), but I do get one thing: Nous sommes tous Fatma!See how effective it is to arrest bloggers? I'd never heard of her, or of Debat Tunisie.
Now, you have too. Don't forget the Facebook page. Or the other one.
See how it works now, governments? A whole lot of people outside North African diaspora communities would not have seen those cartoons, or heard of the websites, without the arrest. Now they have. The Internet is the enemy of censorship. Enjoy. You just gave those cartoons a whole new audience. Oh, did I mention Debat Tunisie?
Now let her go please.
Mohamed El-Sayed Sa‘id
Friday, November 6, 2009
Saudi Campaign Intensifying (in Media at Least)
Tomorrow's headlines in Al-Watan are full of coverage of the campaign — now noticeably characterized as "by air and land" — against the Houthis. For English readers, here's an Arab News article. The Saudi media, at least, seems to be at war. Saudi Gazette ran the (file?) photo showing heavy field artillery I've reproduced here.At this point I think I'm going to limit my comments to a few observations:
- I cannot recall any time since the invasion of Kuwait and subsequent Desert Storm in which the Saudi media has seemed so militant.
- Although the media continue to insist they have only conducted airstrikes inside Saudi territory, the talk about an "air and land" campaign to "secure the borders" could leave open a certain possibility of hot-pursuit; and if they're actually using those field pieces in the picture (105mm or above towed howitzers, I think) they can shell well inside Yemen (11 or more kilometers?) from the border.
- As a commenter noted on my earlier post, there have been many reports emphasizing the alleged Iranian involvement with the Houthis; the anti-Iranian drumbeat deserves attention.
Thoughts on Mahmoud ‘Abbas
Most of the Palestinian and Arab commentary I've seen since his announcement falls into three basic trends: the first thinks he's bluffing, attempting to leverage his weakness into pressure on the U.S. and Israel; the second thinks it's irrelevant, because the elections will not actually be held in January; and the third is cheering his departure, and hoping that it will lead to a collective admission that the PA's strategy has failed. The three perspectives are obviously not mutually exclusive. When I asked leading Palestinian academic Salim Tamari yesterday about the impact it would have on the peace process, he just looked at me quizically and said "what peace process?"A reasonable question. I confess to still being among the skeptics, in that I'm not sure he really means it. He said he had "no desire" to run; that suggests he could be open to persuasion. If he does mean it, it would indeed reshuffle the deck, but in whose favor? It's always dangerous to bluff with a weak hand, and I fear ‘Abbas' hand is pretty weak at the moment.
January elections, I must say, seem less likely now: Hamas was already refusing to hold them in Gaza, and now Fatah has no immediate candidate.
On Abu Mazen: More Coming
Thursday, November 5, 2009
The Kingdom Strikes Back: Going After the Houthis
So the Houthis now find themselves between a Yemeni hammer and a Saudi anvil, and the Saudis are using their Air Force, which is much superior to Yemen's, at least on the Saudi side of the border. (The Houthis charge the Saudis have bombed inside Yemen.)
It's likely to get interesting. Unless you're a Houthi.
MEI Event Video: Gulf Capital and the Rise of Islamic Finance
Israeli Seizure of Arms Ship
And, while I'm not following Netanyhahu's orders to his embassies, in the interest of fairness and giving you something to watch, here's the video of the seizure:
Sand Shortage in Arabia! No, Really.
"Critical Sand Shortage in the Gulf." No, really. Bahrain's construction industry depends on imports of sand and gravel. They import it from Saudi Arabia, but Saudi Arabia is banning sand exports as of the end of November, because they're worried about running out. You really can't make this stuff up.I seem to recall that back during Desert Shield/Desert Storm someone wrote a story (I suspect maybe P.J. O'Rourke) about how the Army was importing sand into Saudi Arabia because the local sand wasn't up to army standards for filling sandbags.
The link for the sand story above, by the way, is to a brand new blog called Suq al-Mal: The Financial Sector in the GCC. Much of the analysis is beyond my financial savvy, but it's well done and the sand story surely deserves our attention.
Protests on Embassy Seizure Day
Marg bar . . . uh, who was that again exactly?
Here's another, though the lack of context doesn't tell us how public this was:
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
Houthis Cross Saudi Border
The Saudi media for tomorrow morning are up in arms about a raid across the Saudi-Yemeni border by Houthi rebels. The simmering tensions along the border may just have crossed a line (namely the border) and this could escalate. Here's Al-Jazeera in English on the story, and here's Arab News, but there's much more if you go to the Arabic press: Al-Watan in particular is full of stories so I'm linking to the front page rather than to individual stories. Their map is stolen (with full acknowledgment) on the upper right of this post. For those who don't read Arabic, the white parts to the right of the heavy line are Yemen and the colored parts (as well as the white parts with detail) are Saudi (the colored part is Jazan).[Map from tomorrow's Al-Watan.]
This bears watching. The Saudi press is increasingly blaming Iran for the Houthis, as is the Yemeni government, and the two countries, usually at odds or at least awkward in their relations, are moving quickly towards some kind of common position here. More as this develops.
More than 700 Posts
The Hostage Crisis, 30 Years On
But until the seizure of the Embassy, US relations with the Iranian revolutionary regime, while awkward, were not openly hostile. The Embassy takeover both radicalized the revolutionary regime, pushing it deeper into full clerical rule, and isolated it from the world in ways that the revolution itself had not done. Because the Embassy seizure so clearly violated the basic rules of international diplomacy — which seemed, at the time, exceptional, since the far greater outrages of later years were not yet anticipated — the West was caught off guard. It was the beginning of a long string of asymmetric attacks on Western norms and standards, not just by Iran but by every movement challenging the traditional world order. In the mind of the West, the Iranians were breaking the rules. The students, in effect, said we never agreed to your rules. Thirty years later, we haven't come that far: the nuclear standoff is parallel in many ways: the West says, you can't have nuclear weapons, even though Israel and Pakistan do; Iran essentially says, who made those rules?
The fact that our relations with Iran are still as rocky as they are shows that neither we nor they have really been able to escape the mindset created by the hostage crisis 30 years ago, though there have been gestures from both sides (from Iran during the Khatami Presidency, more recently from Obama) seeking to break out of the straitjackets we have worn in both countries since the Embassy takeover. The timing has been wrong; we aren't there yet. In some respects it seems a long time ago: the Carter Administration is mostly a distant memory, and ancient history to a lot of young professionals today. In other ways the scar tissue still seems fresh, picked raw anew by the nuclear dispute, the Iranian election fiasco, and other recent events.
One of the sadder sidelights of the hostage crisis, I fear, is the argument still heard that if one's adversaries violate international law, that means we don't have to play by our own self-imposed rules either. That's the road to Abu Ghraib and Guantanamo, but it isn't the traditional American way. The rules are there not because everyone respects them, but because they represent who we are, or think we are in our best moments.
Many of the former hostages are going to be interviewed today by the media; it's ironic that many of them were, and are, among our most experienced Iran hands.
For Conspiracy Theorists Only
Whoa. I don't believe in conspiracy theories. As a graduate of a Jesuit institution (Georgetown), neither my Illuminati Masters nor their Knights Templars allies nor Opus Dei allow me to discuss the real role of the Freemasons in hiding Barack Obama's birth certificate from the UFO grays, but there are some strange things going on out there:
- Via Abu Muqawama, and from there Politico, this photograph of Hillary Clinton, George Mitchell, Jeffrey Feltman and a woman with black hair whose face doesn't show (WHAT ARE THEY HIDING?) on the Secretary of State's plane, showing they are all sitting around a copy of Dan Brown's latest book, towards which Mitchell seems to be making a prayerful gesture with his hands, and which I gather is about how Washington is built to a secret Freemason design. WHAT ARE THEY NOT TELLING US? Is Brown's book providing the guidelines for their Middle East policy?

AND WHAT ABOUT THIS!?!:
- Keys to Kafka's Tel Aviv Safe Handed to Estate Executor. Oh, I know, it's actually a pretty boring story about literary legacies and such, but doesn't "Keys to Kafka's Tel Aviv Safe" have a wonderfully conspiratorial sound to it? Kafka (sublime paranoia: The Trial); Tel Aviv (Elders of Zion? Mossad?), and keys (whatever you want to make of them: maybe we could get the Pope in here with the keys of Peter, though I'm sure there are other sinister links: Skull and Bones perhaps?). Sorry the story is pretty boring, but for a certain type of conspiracy theorist it would be raw meat. Goebbels would have salivated over the headline. Oh, sorry, he would never have read Kafka, would he? (Though he was closer to a cockroach than Gregor Samsa ever was.) (Apologies to cockroaches.)
And for the first time since I started this blog, I am turning comments OFF on this post only. I have a bad feeling about what I might get otherwise, if people Google in without looking at the rest of the blog . If you like it, link to it, but I don't really need a lot of humor-impaired folks agreeing with the intentionally humorous post above.
And if they do, I'll tell the Illuminati.
Female Muftis in Dubai?
Well, yeah. Let's start small. But this seems pretty revolutionary. Who'd a thunk that the first muftis (Islamic scholars qualified to give legal opinions) in the Arab world would be in a Gulf state? (Well, yes, I know Dubai is not typical, but still.)DUBAI // The UAE will appoint what are likely to be the world’s first state-sanctioned female muftis next year, after the Grand Mufti announced details yesterday of plans to recruit and train them.
The move follows a fatwa issued by Dr al Haddad in February that sanctioned women’s role as muftis. In May, he called on qualified Emirati women to apply for the programme, which includes instruction in Sharia law and legal thinking . . .
Six Emirati women are being considered for the training programme, said Dr Ahmed al Haddad, who is also the head of the Islamic Affairs and Charitable Activities Department. Once accepted they will begin the course, which will last several months, early next year.
The status of female muftis has caused controversy within the religious establishment elsewhere in the Muslim world, with Egypt’s Al Azhar University, a powerful centre of Sunni scholarship, rejecting the possibility of women becoming grand muftis.
However, Dr al Haddad said that debate did not affect whether women should serve in other roles.
“The controversy over female muftis is not necessarily over this point, but about whether or not a woman should be appointed as the grand mufti of a state,” he said. “And that is not what we’re trying to do at this point.”
Perhaps not at all surprisingly, this has been noticed in the Saudi press.
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
Kind Words About the Blog: New Sidebar for Good Reviews
(Modestly clears throat.) I can make room for more if need be.
The NDP Conference: Not Much to Say
Actually, perhaps the quintessential headline is this one from Al-Masry al-Youm's English pages: Privatization, Agriculture Discussed at NDP Conference. (If you click the link and read the story, do post a comment to tell me what it was about. I fell asleep at the headline.) In other words, if you were expecting the Conference to shed light on the succession — well, by now you should have known better. Still, international Arab and Western media were watching, just in case.
On the other hand, if this was some sort of dry run for Gamal to show his leadership skills, I'm not sure he convinced anyone, perhaps including the one man who really does have the vote. The attacks on the opposition suggest not so much that the opposition is powerful — the state has it carefully tamed and circumscribed — as that the ruling party has thin skins. The various trial balloons for alternatives — ‘Omar Suleiman, Muhammad ElBaradei, ‘Amr Musa — in recent weeks may be an indicator that a lot of people in the Establishment are uncomfortable with Gamal's inexperience and lack of charisma too. The next two years (or less?) will be interesting.
Marc Lynch on Mustafa Mahmoud
Let Them Eat Croissants
A few key quotes:
InterContinental CityStars feels slightly disorienting. What would constitute garish décor — sphinxes in the lobby’s fountain, golden snakes on the ceiling — is softened by beige tones, attractive natural lighting and the sound of falling water; as if ancient Egypt were an ordinary theme for a five-star hotel.Primarily accommodating business travelers with its Nasr City proximity to the airport, perhaps the hotel’s designers guessed that their clients might not have the chance to visit real Egyptian sites.
Providing a Pharaonic aesthetic, food and a huge pyramid out back, the hotel offers an effortless version of the Egyptian experience. The casino evokes the famed Luxor Hotel in Vegas. Baudrillard would have a field day: a hotel in Egypt modeled on a hotel in the US modeled on an ancient Egyptian religious site.
At your service
However, should you have even half a day to spare during your stay, the newly renovated Concierge Lounge can book a trip with partner American Express Travel to the Pyramids of Giza, the famous Khan El-Khalili bazaar, or the Egyptian Museum. Anything you want, really, including limousine service all the way to Abu Simbel, if you’re ready to pay the price, (though concierge Mohamed Fawzy suggests flying).
The Concierge Lounge, first of its kind in the Middle East and Europe, transforms the often harried exchange at the concierge desk to a personalized service. Sit down below live feed flight information from the three terminals at Cairo International Airport, and one of the five concierges will assist you with international travel arrangements, airport pick-up, sojourns into Egypt, forgotten laptop chargers, etc. (Forgotten running shoes, unfortunately, they could not provide, though they suggested I take myself to CityStars Mall through the hotel’s private entrance.)
I don't know why I keep thinking Versailles and Marie Antoinette thoughts through all this. I know it brings tons of money into the country. But unlike Las Vegas (which, once you actually see the people in the hotel casinos, you realize is populated by lower to middle class folks from middle America, living it up), this is alien to all but the most stratospheric Egyptian elites, and is really for foreigners. And the decor is pharaonic. Those of you who know Arabic may recall that the word fir‘awn in Arabic, and particularly in the Qur'an, is an emblem of tyranny, power, and alienation from Godly things. (And not in a good way, either.) Oh, and:
I’ve never seen so many choices at a breakfast buffet. The tasty croissants, omelets and sausages were on par with any five-star hotel, while the Egyptian offerings, from fuul (beans) to tameyah (falafel) to feteer (phylo dough pancakes) — all of which you would find offered on a Cairo street for pennies — provided another reminder that this was not Anywhere, Planet Earth.
You'll note that the reviewer explained what the Egyptian food is, not what croissants, omelets and sausages are. Years ago I tried the ful at the Sheraton Heliopolis. I doubt if many people do. It's better downtown.
And tameya's not falafel. They look and taste pretty much alike, but tameya's made from ground fava beans, falafel from ground chickpeas. This ain't rocket science. But at least she referred to fateer as "pancakes," a poor analogy but not as grossly overused as the equally inaccurate "Egyptian pizza."
Not yet ready to storm the Bastille? How about:
The pyramid housing the health facilities evokes a temple dedicated to well-being. Particularly the basement floor, where a glass cube encases squash players in what would seem an ancient ritual. If you don’t mind a lingering smell of chlorine, the ground floor lounge offers one of the hotel’s most peaceful hiding places. Techno music echoed from the workout facilities, where treadmill runners could entertain themselves with private TV monitors, or by watching swimmers in the pool surrounding the pyramid. The spa, although equipped with hi-tech treatments such as the LPG Cellular M6 Key Module and Endermologie anti-cellulite, lacks the sense of sanctuary that would distinguish it from a dimly-lit clinic visit. The refuge waits upstairs. Male and female Greek busts indicate the changing area and additional massage rooms. Passing through, (grab a cup of lemon water), you emerge in a sunlit chamber where three fountainheads gush into a huge co-ed jacuzzi and guests can doze in lounge chairs scattered through this semi-secret grotto.
Okay, I'm venting. I know it's for tourists, not the fellahin. But really. There is of course no mention I could see of prices. I'm sure if you have to ask, you can't afford it, which rules me out.
And please don't tell me Dubai is worse. Of course it is, but wretched excess is the national pastime there. But this is Cairo. People are living in the cemeteries.
Okay. End of rant. Thank you for your time.
Belated addition a couple of days later: I only just realized how the "co-ed jacuzzi" line must be going over with the Muslim Brotherhood and lots of other folks. Just sayin'.
More on Saudi Arms Cache
Also of note is a GAO report dated September 24 but just called to my attention by one of my readers, on Saudi progress in countering terrorist financing in the Kingdom. Summary here and full report in PDF here.