‘Abbas Threatens Not to Run if No Settlement Freeze?

This is one of those "Huh?" developments: Fatah has said it plans to hold elections in January whether Hamas agrees or not, and now here's a report that Mahmoud ‘Abbas told President Obama that he will not run for President if Israel doesn't agree to a settlement freeze. I have no idea if this article has any basis in fact: it's hard to see why Fatah would 1) insist on elections and then 2) change horses in the middle of the stream. Who would they run instead? Marwan Barghouti is the only name that comes to mind and he's still in an Israeli jail, unless one thinks Muhammad Dahlan or someone similar has a good claim to leadershp. If ‘Abbas actually said this to Obama I think it was a bluff; if he means it, it makes little tactical sense at all.

But when this story started to take on life yesterday, Marc Lynch posted his own views on the matter, (which has multiple links to other versions) and what he says deserves consideration: if it does happen it could lead to a renewal of Fatah and a revitalization of Palestinian leadership, perhaps even an end to the West Bank/Gaza division.

Okay, that's the best-case scenario. Worst-case scenario? Fatah shoots itself down in flames; Hamas gains in the West Bank; Fatah falls into internecine rivalries.

I'm not great admirer of Mahmoud ‘Abbas, but I don't have a say in choosing the Palestinian leadership. But a major meltdown combined with elections would make a bad situation worse. Maybe in the long run we would see improved leadership, and maybe (given the present Israeli position) the long run is all we have to hope for, but imperfect as he is, it's not a good time to step aside, in my instinctive reaction.