Egypt Takes Unusual Step; Officially Denies Mubarak Ill

The Egyptian government has taken the unusual step of publicly (in the guise of a "senior Egyptian official") denying that Husni Mubarak is seriously, perhaps terminally, ill and about to return to Europe for possible further surgery. (For the denials: Arabic in Al-Masry al-Youm here; an English account from Reuters here.) [UPDATE: And if you doubted it for a moment, Mubarak dropped in for the Air Force Academy graduation. (Article in Arabic.)]

The wilder rumor mills have been churning again; claiming that Mubarak has cancer of the esophagus, may not last out his term, etc. This is fairly typical fare for the Mideast coffeehouses, and some of it has been turning up in the Israeli press. But two things seem to have combined to persuade the Egyptian government, which usually does not comment on Mubarak's health except to praise how good it is, to openly deny the rumors.

One was the report in the respected Lebanese daily Al-Safir, reporting that Mubarak was due to travel within days to Germany for a new bout of surgery (Arabic).

A second was the fact that Mubarak was scheduled to meet with Binyamin Netanyahu on Tuesday. That was first postponed until Wednesday, then all the way to Sunday. This led to speculation that it was due to health reasons, especially in Israel. There is plenty of contrary evidence, mostly suggesting that the reasons for the postponement were to express Mubarak's unhappiness about recent demolitions in Jerusalem, or to avoid having a summit coincide with a possible Israeli interception of a Libyan ship sailing to Gaza via Egypt. Also, by moving the meeting to Sunday, it gives Mubarak the opportunity to meet with Mahmoud ‘Abbas first; he's coming Saturday.

Part of the nervousness, too, stems from increasing Israeli speculation about what a post-Mubarak Egypt might look like. The press follows the health rumors, and recently Rabbi Ovadia Yosef, the Spiritual Leader of the rightist ultra-Orthodox Shas Party, sent Mubarak a letter in which he prayed for his good health. Given some of Yosef's past comments on Arabs, this led to some wry commentary in Egypt.

My conclusion would be that the Netanyahu postponement makes perfect political/diplomatic sense, and therefore is no reason to assume the worst. On the other hand, given the region's love of conspiracy theories, the fact that the Egyptian government took the unusual step of denying these rumors will probably convince at least some that they must therefore be true.