Tuesday, February 1, 2011
New PM for Jordan
King ‘Abdullah II has named a new Prime Minister, Ma‘rouf Bakhit, to replace Samir Rifai and preside over a reform government. Whether real reforms ensue or not, at least the King is seeking to be perceived as taking action in response to demonstrations, to get out ahead of the wave. Will it be enough? I think in the present circumstances, analysts are as confused as Arab leaders about the speed and nature of the tiger Arab leaders find themselves riding.
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Arab leaders can take different lessons from events in Iran after 2009 elections and, recently from events in Tunisia and Egypt. One lesson is to be pro-active by getting out ahead of the demonstrations. We see this from King Abdullah of Jordan and King Mohamed of Morocco, who were already leaning in that direction. There are some signs that Bashar al-Asad may also get the point, and some of the leaders in wealthy GCC states will find ways to combine modest political reforms with generosity ($3500 to each Kuwaiti is an example). Libya and Algeria might have the financial means to move in that manner, but Ali Abdullah Saleh in Yemen lacks the wherewithal. The other lesson that Arab leaders might learn is to combine an anti-American and anti-Israeli stance with repression. That seems to have worked for Ahmedinejad. That would be the wrong lesson for the long term, but it is not only Arab governments that sometimes lack long term vision.
You mention King Mohammed VI of Morocco. I didn't blog it but there were French reports he suddenly made a visit to his Chateau in the Oise last week, perhaps in case things spread rapidly. So far as I know the protests in Morocco have been more low key than most.
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