Yesterday's Arab Summit

Yesterday's Arab League Summit in Jordan, like most Arab Summits, was fairly unnewsworthy, reiterating its support for the Saudi peace plan. It did, however, begin with Lebanese President Michel ‘Aoun tripping and falling:

After that, this viral montage shows the exciting conference itself:

Clovis Maksoud, 1926-2016

Source: American University

Clovis Maksoud, diplomat, writer, intellectual, professor, and a familiar figure in Washington since the 1970s, has passed away at the age of 90.

He served for many years as a Representative of the Arab League, and was sent as a Special Representative of the League to the US during the oil crisis of 1974. From 1979-1990 he was the Arab League's Ambassador to the US and the UN. Maksoud, a proponent of Arab unity, resigned that post over the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. He was also a frequent spokesman for Palestinian issues.

At earlier periods in his career he had served as a writer and editor, and continued to write newspaper columns and articles for many years, as well as books. In recent years he served as Director of the Center for the Global South at The American University in Washington.

Ambassador Maksoud and his late wife Hala were prominent figures around the Washington diplomatic, Arab, and Lebanese communities for decades. He was always friendly, accessible, and outspoken, a highly visible voice for Lebanon, for Palestine, and for the Arab World as a whole.

Tunisians, Others Cry Foul Over Women's Status Poll

You may have already heard about the Thomson Reuters Poll that asked experts on gender rights to rank Arab countries' performance on women's rights; the main headlines have noted that Egypt ranked dead last, even below Saudi Arabia. That, predictably, raised some eyebrows:

Some activists expressed shock that Egypt scored worse than conservative Saudi Arabia, where women's access to public space is limited and women need a male guardian's permission to work, travel abroad, open a bank account or enrol in higher education.

But some insights into the curious rankings may be gained by the uproar created by the original report's ranking of Tunisia as only sixth. Tunisians were puzzled by the reasons given: as noted by Tunisia Online:

The survey which was released on Monday erroneously stated that “polygamy remains widespread and contraception is illegal” in the country.

Tunisia was the first country in the Arab region to ban polygamy under the 1956 Personal Status Code. Abortion has also been authorised since 1973 and contraception is legal and available.

The survey which was released on Monday erroneously stated that “polygamy remains widespread and contraception is illegal” in the country.
Tunisia was the first country in the Arab region to ban polygamy under the 1956 Personal Status Code. Abortion has also been authorised since 1973 and contraception is legal and available.
- See more at: http://www.tunisia-live.net/2013/11/12/reuters-errs-on-polygamy-contraception-in-womens-rights-poll/#sthash.ydyWIqqW.dpuf

The survey which was released on Monday erroneously stated that “polygamy remains widespread and contraception is illegal” in the country.
Tunisia was the first country in the Arab region to ban polygamy under the 1956 Personal Status Code. Abortion has also been authorised since 1973 and contraception is legal and available.
- See more at: http://www.tunisia-live.net/2013/11/12/reuters-errs-on-polygamy-contraception-in-womens-rights-poll/#sthash.ydyWIqqW.dpuf

The survey which was released on Monday erroneously stated that “polygamy remains widespread and contraception is illegal” in the country.
Tunisia was the first country in the Arab region to ban polygamy under the 1956 Personal Status Code. Abortion has also been authorised since 1973 and contraception is legal and available.
- See more at: http://www.tunisia-live.net/2013/11/12/reuters-errs-on-polygamy-contraception-in-womens-rights-poll/#sthash.ydyWIqqW.dpuf

In fact, contraception is not only legal, it's free. The Tunisia Online story notes some of the Twitter commentary:

And sure enough, the original Reuters story has been "updated" to read:

In Tunisia, ranked best among Arab Spring nations, women hold 27 percent of seats in national parliament and contraception is legal, but polygamy is spreading and inheritance laws are biased towards males.

Thomson Reuters responded to Tunisia Online's queries by saying:

“The survey is an expert perception poll and as such is only based on the opinions of respondents, who were chosen for their general expertise on gender issues,” Thomson Reuters said.

To respect respondents’ anonymity, the foundation declined to give names of the gender experts surveyed on the situation of women’s rights in Tunisia. They did, however, give a statement regarding their updated article.

“Tunisia did not allow polygamy but after the revolution and the rise of Islamists, polygamy has been secretly practiced by Salafis – though never officially recognized,”

“The survey is an expert perception poll and as such is only based on the opinions of respondents, who were chosen for their general expertise on gender issues,” Thomson Reuters said.

To respect respondents’ anonymity, the foundation declined to give names of the gender experts surveyed on the situation of women’s rights in Tunisia. They did, however, give a statement regarding their updated article.

“Tunisia did not allow polygamy but after the revolution and the rise of Islamists, polygamy has been secretly practiced by Salafis – though never officially recognized,” Thomson Reuters explained.

Ah. So it was "an expert perception poll and as such is only based on the opinions of respondents," as opposed to a non-expert poll based on, oh, let's say, actual facts.

So who ranked first in the Arab World, you may ask, if Tunisia only ranked sixth?

Why, the Comoros Islands, of course.

Wait, you may say, aren't they down off the coast of Madagascar somewhere?  Well technically, yes they are. But they're really avid joiners: As the Comoros Wikipedia page notes:

The Comoros is the only state to be a member of the African Union, Francophonie, Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, Arab League (of which it is the southernmost state, being the only member of the Arab League which is entirely within the Southern Hemisphere) and the Indian Ocean Commission.

Also the Daughters of the American Revolution, the Cub Scouts, and the Sons of Confederate Veterans, for all I know. (My apologies to any Comoran readers, though Google Analytic tells me that in nearly five years of blogging, I haven't had a single one. The closest I come is five visits from Madagascar.)

I do not know how many Comorans think of themselves as Arabs, but I suspect few Arabs outside the Arab League Secretariat do.

It's sort of comparable, I suspect, to when the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) proposed admitting both Jordan and Morocco. Morocco, in particular, is not noticeably near the Gulf, nor does it even share a continent with it, but that's being picky. 

Thomson Reuters should have checked a few facts, I suspect.

Thoughts for the Last Days of Ramadan: A Regional Tour d'Horizon

I have returned from vacation and of course, much has happened in my absence. In Islamic tradition, the last ten days of Ramadan are considered especially holy, a time for prayer and silent meditation, a time of special grace. As the Middle East approaches this year's ‘Id al-Fitr, it may be useful to pause and take a tour d'horizon of recent events. I'll post more on specific issues in coming days.

• The Israeli-Palestinian resumption of peace talks is good news for those of us who see no real alternative to a two-state solution. On the positive side, the sides are talking again, and addressing final status issues; the decision to defer the thorniest issues (Jerusalem, refugees, final borders) proved the fatal flaw of the Oslo process. Also positive is that the Arab League has reiterated its peace plan, assuring Israel of recognition by the entire Arab world. On the downside, Israeli settlements policy is already threatening the talks yet again,

• Hassan Rouhani has succeeded Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Though some (apparently misquoted) remarks attributed to him about Israel were not as encouraging a start as one might have hoped for, and of course the President doesn't make the nuclear decisions and this one is a cleric and a loyal son of the clerical regime, the transfer of power could offer an opportunity for some sort of breakthrough, or at least halt the efforts to go to war.

• It's an awkward time for US policy. Despite the successes Secretary Kerry had with Israel, and the Palestinians, US policy seems a bit uncertain. US Embassies and other missions are closed all week due to a terror threat. (Admittedly they'd be closed the latter half of the week for the ‘Id anyway. Egyptian secularists and liberals are more anti-American than they have ever been, and the few who aren't are being denounced as American stooges. US Ambassador Anne Patterson is unpopular in Egypt (though largely for reasons that aren't really justified) and is now moving to the post of Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs.

• Iraq is a mess. July was the deadliest day in Iraq for years, and communal violence remains deep and persistent. Yet the West largely ignores it, since the last foreign troops left. (After all, the invasion and occupation can't have played any role in the present mess, can they?)

• Just when things couldn't get worse in Syria, they seem to be getting worse. Regime forces are fighting their way back, retaking key parts of Homs and gearing up for Aleppo. Russia's open support for the Asad regime is possibly turning the tide. Wait, what happened to the West arming the rebels?

• And then there's Egypt. The military-backed regime seems to be reluctant to negotiate with the Muslim Brotherhood, despite US and European pressures to do so; the rhetoric of denouncing them as "terrorists" smacks of the Nasser and Mubarak eras, but then the Brotherhood shows no sign of settling for anything less than a full return of Morsi to power. The few liberals who have criticized both sides (mostly leftists and "third square" activists) get attacked as Brotherhood sympathizers, American agents, or maybe both. The good news: despite lots of threats, the weekend passed without a Tiananmen-style clearing of the Brotherhood encampments at Rabi‘a al-‘Adawiyya and in Giza. But even a military regime must be aware that such a potentially bloody move in the last days of Ramadan could backfire. But what happens after the ‘Id?

More thoughts soon as I get caught up on other business.

Well, This is Also MY Reaction to Most Arab Summits . . .

Egyptian President Morsi and the rest of the Egyptian delegation at the Arab Summit in Doha, via Al-Arabiya.

I thought it was just me who thought Arab summits tended toward the soporific.

A Summit without Kings

Fewer than half of all Arab leaders are attending the Arab Summit in Baghdad. All the Gulf monarchs except for Kuwait failed to show, as did the Kings of Jordan and Morocco.  And note the irony in the previous sentence: except for Kuwait. Which, 21 years ago, was occupied by a rather different Iraq.

So the summit designed to mark the new Iraq's acceptance by the Arab world, isn't. The bloc of Sunni monarchies sent lower ranking figures. The Sunni jitters over Iran and conviction that Shi‘ite Iraq is a stalking horse for Iran is clearly showing.

Rami Khouri on the Baghdad Summit

Tomorrow's Arab League SAummit in Baghdad will be a showcase moment for post-occupation Iraq, but despite its focus on Syria and the importance of the moment following a year of dramatic change in the Arab world, it's a rare observer who gets excited over Arab Summits. Even the once-dependable entertainment value once provided by the late Mu‘ammar al-Qadhafi, with his penchant for denouncing his hosts, attacking the Saudi King, and making outrageous statements is no more, and missed, I'm sure, by none of the surviving attendees.

But one commentator who can usually be counted on for intelligent comment is Rami Khouri, in "Four Arab Worlds Will Meet in Baghdad," (differentiated by the effects of the Arab Awakening on them), so read what he has to say. I probably won't post on the Summit again unless something actually happens, which would be precedent-shattering in its own right.

Arab League Delegation Head Has, Um, An Interesting Résumé

As several people are noting in social media, the Sudanese general named to head the Arab League mission to Syria to negotiate a monitoring mission is, as this Daily Star report notes, a former Sudanese intelligence chief whose résumé includes:

- Sudanese army officer for 30 years, from 1969-1999

- Head of military intelligence from June 30, 1989 -- the day Omar al-Bashir took power in a coup -- until August 1995

 - Head of the foreign spy agency, 1995-1996

- Chief of military operations against the insurgency in what is now South Sudan, 1996-1999.

Dabi served as ambassador to Qatar from 1999 to 2004 but also held four separate positions related to Sudan's Darfur region, where fighting broke out in 2003 between non-Arab rebels and the Arab-dominated Khartoum regime.

Among his duties there, Dabi served in 2005 as the regime's pointman for dealing with United Nations Security Council Resolution 1591 on sanctions and other measures related to the conflict.

Sudan's President Bashir is among six people who are being sought or are before the Hague-based International Criminal Court (ICC) for crimes allegedly committed in the Darfur region.

I can't resist wondering: is he going to monitor the Syrian Army crackdown, or offer them professional tips?

I STILL Hate Being Right So Often

Last Thursday, I expressed skepticism about Syria's "full acceptance" of the Arab League peace plan, and only a day later on Friday had to lament that "Sometimes I Hate Being Right So Often."

And here we go again. One of the comments in my original post was:

Unfortunately for the cynics among us, or those of us who remember, say, how many times Yemen's President Salih has "accepted" the GCC plan for him to step down, Arab League peace plans have few teeth. If Syria does not keep its word, what will the League do then? (If
you said, "call another meeting," you probably will be proved right).

 Okay. Now from Al Jazeera English:

The Arab League has called an emergency meeting on Syria's failure to implement its peace plan, as forces reportedly killed at least 15 demonstrators after prayers on one of Islam's holiest days.

The announcement that Arab foreign ministers would hold another gathering came on Sunday, the fourth straight day of deadly violence since Syria agreed to the league's peace blueprint aimed at ending eight months of bloodshed.

The Arab League said a meeting was called for next Saturday because of "the continuation of violence and because the Syrian government did not implement its commitments in the Arab plan to resolve the Syrian crisis".

 Yes. Thursday's peace plan was so violently violated on Friday that we called an emergency meeting on Sunday for . . . next Saturday. Yes, it's a religious holiday.  But it further emphasizes the inability of the Arab League to enforce even the rare decisions it can agree upon,

Sometimes I Hate Being Right So Often

Only a day after I cynically questioned Syria's acceptance of the Arab League peace plan, which called for an immediate withdrawal of military vehicles and artillery from the cities, Syrian tanks or self-propelled artillery yesterday fired on civilians in Homs, killing 19 or 20 or more depending on the report. And The Guardian cites a Syrian opposition site as claiming as many as 72 dead in 24 hours in Homs. (Link, to a Syrian opposition website, has stopped working. I will try to restore it later today.)

Of course these numbers, like the videos coming out of Syria, are hard to verify. The following video claims to have been taken yesterday, the day after accepting the peace plan, and it clearly shows shells hitting buildings and a tank in the street.



 Nor do these look like private cars, again said to be in Homs yesterday:



Today being Friday, I expect we will see new confrontations and a definitive test.

Syria "Fully Accepts" Arab League Peace Plan: But Will Anything Change?

Syria has "fully accepted" the Arab League peace plan,which calls for a withdrawal of military vehicles from the cities, a meeting with the opposition, and other elements. The League is insisting that real implementation take place immediately.

Unfortunately for the cynics among us, or those of us who remember, say, how many times Yemen's President Salih has "accepted" the GCC plan for him to step down, Arab League peace plans have few teeth. If Syria does not keep its word, what will the League do then? (If you said, "call another meeting," you probably will be proved right).

I hope this really means something, but I'm indeed from Missouri and Mr. Asad will have to show me.

And the Winner is . . . Someone Who Wasn't Running

Egyptian Foreign Minister Nabil ElAraby has been elected the new Secretary-General of the Arab League, which is interesting since, until just before the vote, he hadn't been a candidate. By tradition, the Secretary-General comes from the host country, which means all have been Egyptian, except for one Tunisian when the League was headquartered in Tunis after Egypt's expulsion due to its peace with Israel. But Egypt's candidate this time, Mustafa al-Fiqi, was seen as a symbol of the old regime, and many Egyptians opposed the nomination. Qatar fielded a rival candidate, but at the eleventh hour, Egypt announced that Fiqi was withdrawing and that ElAraby would be its candidate; the Qatari withdrew and the deal was done.

ElAraby is a former diplomat with a distinguished career and widely admired in the region; he has also shown a new emphasis in his few weeks as Foreign Minister, being more critical of Israel and seeking openings with Iran.

Fiqi for the Arab League?

The Arabist deconstructs the "new" Egyptian government's nominee for Secretary-General of the Arab League, Mustafa al-Fiqi. Except for the post-Camp David years when Egypt was ostracized from the League, the SG has always been an Egyptian. The sole non-Egyptian was Tunisian Chedli Klibi in 1979-1990, when Egypt was in the Wilderness.

But, ineffectual as the League of Arab States may be, it is still a major symbolic force, and Egypt wants to maintain its dominant role. Current Secretary-General ‘Amr Moussa has already announced his candidacy as President of Egypt (and he may well be emerging as the Establishment favorite). Other countries (Saudi Arabia, Qatar) would love to claim the job, but so much is in flux in Egypt, it is hard to rate the chances. Fiqi is hardly a grass roots revolutionary candidate, however.

No-Fly Zones and Other Military Options

The debate over na No-Fly Zone over Libya is intensifying, and some are calling for more direct military intervention. So much of the rhetoric appears to be occurring in a vacuum that it may be worth returning to a few first principles and home truths. (For the moment, I'm going to leave aside the blowback from playing into Qadhafi's hands by making it look like the rebels are Western puppets: I'm just going to look at the practicalities.)

You cannot commit forces you do not have. I have heard few if any of the advocates of increased US involvement call for 1) a military draft or 2) massive tax hikes to support a huge increase in our military forces, already committed to two wars. I, too, would like for Clark Kent to slip out of the Daily Planet, change into Superman, fly to Libya, and, oh, let's say throw Qadhafi into the sun with a single heave. But I can't find the area code for Metropolis, or even for Gotham City to ask Commissioner Gordon to crank up the Bat-Signal. Absent those solutions, we're stuck with an overcommitted US Armed Forces, many of whose front-line troops are on their fourth or fifth deployment, or worse, with dwindling budgets and massive stress, and they're a volunteer force, so the longer this goes on, the harder replenishment will be. And we don't even have one carrier in the Med. Not one, save a recently deployed helicopter carrier. Take on MiGs and Sukhois with helicopters? You go first, please. Where will we run our No-Fly Zone from? Europe?

Libya is big. Sure it doesn't have many people, and most live near the coast, but the air bases are scattered inland, and by many accounts the African mercenary troops are being flown into desert air bases like Sabha, and a no-fly zone would presumably want to stop that. So you really want to deny the whole airspace. Libya is 679,359 square miles in area; or 1,759,541 square kilometers. The whole of Iraq (and even when the northern and southern no-fly zones were both in place, the whole country was never included) is 169,234 square miles, or 438,317 square kilometers. (Numbers are from Wikipedia.) Or, for the mathematically challenged, Libya is four times the area of Iraq, and some of its key airfields are deep in the Sahara. And we never enforced a no-fly zone over all of Iraq.

You need either carriers or bases nearby. We may be able to dispatch B-2s from Missouri or B-52s from Diego Garcia to make the rubble bounce in troubled regions, but a no-fly zone requires continuing combat air patrol to deny the skies to the bad guys, and that requires fairly close-in bases, large deployments, and high sortie rates. For the Iraqi northern no-fly zone we had NATO bases in eastern Turkey, and for the southern we had carriers in the Gulf and bases in Kuwait, Qatar and, with a wink and a nod, probably Saudi Arabia and Jordan. Now let's look at the options in Libya.

1. Carriers.We would have to bring the USS Enterprise from its current Gulf deployment, and it's due for retirement soon anyway, and is supposed to be supporting those other two wars. Of other NATO allies in the Mediterranean, France has one active carrier, the Charles de Gaulle, homeported in Toulon, and some older ones in mothballs. Italy has two, Garibaldi and Cavour, both short takeoff/vertical landing (STOVL) carriers, homeported in Taranto and La Spezia, respectively. Spain also has two STOVL carriers, Principe de Asturias and the new Juan Carlos I, only just commissioned in September, both homeported in Rota. These STOVL carriers, sometimes called "Harrier carriers," embark AV-8B Harrier aircraft, which have limitations in speed and range against frontline fighters, and helicopters. Britain has one STOVL carrier still in service, HMS Illustrious, homeported in Portsmouth and not, so far as I know, in the Med. That's it for NATO, unless they can get Russia or India to join the party.
2. Land Bases. One could wish that Egypt would be willing to commit its western air bases or even its Air Force itself nto operations over Libya, but in the present revolutionary situations there and in Tunisia (which has a minuscule armed forces), this seems unlikely, and even offering to host Western forces would be difficult if not impossible. Right now the Egyptian Armed Forces are not only running the country but trying to provide police functions as well, with the State Security Forces somewhere between dissolved and in opposition. Similarly, though the rebel forces are apparently in control of the old British airbase at Tobruk and other Libyan airbases in the east, they seem unlikely to host foreign air operations there. Other nearby land bases could include a) Malta, with a number of bases that served well for the RAF in World War II, but aren't terribly current; b) the British Sovereign Bases at Akrotiri and Dhekelia on Cyprus; c) various NATO and Italian airfields in Italy, Sicily, and offshore islands. The closest to Libya would be an airstrip on Lampedusa, apparently just a civil airfield, but I don't think it could sustain combat aircraft operations. A bit farther away is Pantelleria, from which bombers operated during World War II, but neither is exactly ready, so far as I know at least, for modern air war. For all I know there may be covert bases in some of these places, but if so, they're still covert from me.
3. A Regi0nal Operation.There are reports that the Arab League has suspended Libya's membership, OPEC is moving to increase production, etc. If this all proves to be both true and somehow substantive. the possibility of some sort of regional collective action, unprecedented as it might be, could increase, and that could allow a figleaf for, say, the Egyptian Air Force to step in. Experience suggests pigs will fly before this happens, but I must note that experience has not been the most reliable guide lately.
   

Having noted these obstacles to a No-Fly Zone, need I discuss the problems of a ground force intervention?

Arab Summit Postponed; Leaders Busy

The Arab Summit scheduled for Baghdad on March 29 has been postponed, at the request of the Arab League, until at least May 15. Since I'm not as bitter or angry as As'ad AbuKhalil, The Angry Arab, I probably shouldn't quote his simple explanation, "No Arab leader dares leave his country."

Except, when you're right, you're right.

Walid Bey on the Arab Summit

I have a weakness for Lebanese Druze za‘im Walid Jumblatt, since if you disagree with what he says today, you'll probably like what he says tomorrow (neocon darling one day, Syria's friend the next, or as I've put it before, perhaps the only member in good standing of the Socialist International who has addressed the American Enterprise Institute and the Heritage Foundation). His moral compass spins wonderfully with the shifting power balance. But how can you resist a statement that "Libya's Arab summit emphasized the continuous Arab course of deterioration and regression." Sometimes he nails it.

And the appropriate way to illustrate such wisdom is by reproducing Qifa Nabki's 2009 Halloween posting, in which reminded we are that, as a Druze leader, Walid Bey a Jedi Master is:


If I were that good at Photoshop, I'd really go to town here.

The Sirt Summit

A reporter called me late last week to ask for my take on the Arab League Summit at Sirt, Libya. I said that it had a strong chance of being even more meaningless than the usual Arab League Summit, given Qadhafi's tendency to grandstand as a host and the major divisions in the Arab world. Also King ‘Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, Sultan Qaboos of Oman, Husni Mubarak and others weren't attending. Marc Lynch expressed similar doubts ahead of time.

Well, there was a moment when Abu Mazen almost went home in protest, and as usual the main agreement was to criticize Israel. Other than that, it looks like there weren't any headlines, but also no big blowups like Qadhafi's sparring with ‘Abdullah at Doha last year.

The Arab League has a well-known rule of unanimity for any resolution; since it has also grown to include as full members Djibouti, Somalia, and the Comoros, whose Arabness is not apparent to everyone. (Brazil, Eritrea, India and Venezuela are "Observers," but the Comoros is (are?) a full member.) So unanimity is far harder than it was when the League was smaller.

Perhaps the League is an anachronism, and more regional groupings like the Gulf Cooperation Council or the Arab Maghreb Union make more sense today, though the latter has its own internal tensions. (Could Brother Leader be a common element here?)

Anyway, neither Lynch nor I was proven wrong by a stunningly successful summit in Sirt.

ElBaradei Meets ‘Amr Moussa

The two men who have both indicated coyly they might run for President of Egypt under certain circumstances, Mohamed ElBaradei and ‘Amr Moussa, have met to discuss "the internal political issue" in Egypt as well as nuclear issues. (If, in the publicity of the last few days, you have forgotten this, ElBaradei used to know something about that subject.) Moussa is still Secretary-General of the Arab League.

ElBaradei, meanwhile, has been giving television interviews. Here's a summary of one of them in English. Some of the quotes chosen by Al-Masry al-Youm English:

"I'm willing to run against anyone in upcoming presidential elections if the public wants me to," former International Atomic Energy Agency director Mohamed ElBaradei said on Sunday during an interview on a popular television talk show.

"I'm no savior, but you can help me transform the authoritarian system--by which we've been ruled for 7000 years--into a democratic system," he said. "I would wager that about 99 percent of the people are desirous of this change."

"We must change from a people who are told what to do into a people who can present their political, social and economic demands in an appropriate manner," he said.

ElBaradei went on to thank President Hosni Mubarak for ordering the opening of the Cairo International Airport's VIP arrival hall for his reception last Friday.

A couple of thoughts here: if you're really going for 99% of the vote, you probably lost the Wafd by saying the country's been authoritarian for 7000 years. (What about the years of Zaghlul and Nahhas? We may not think they were democratic, but the Wafd likes to.) I'm not sure the Muslim Brotherhood is likely to board this bus either.

I will try to find and watch the interview in Arabic. I'm curious if the remark about Mubarak opening the VIP Arrival Hall to him at the airport was sardonic or not. The VIP Arrival Hall, I believe (not being a VIP), is separate from where his supporters were waiting and might have been a way of keeping interaction down.

If you haven't already seen it, The Arabist's piece over the weekend on "What Does ElBaradei Want?" is a useful analysis. He suggests ElBaradei and many of his supporters see his role not as a candidate who is likely to be allowed to run, let alone win, but as a symbol and a voice for the opposition and for rallying calls for change. If that's his goal he has a lot more chance of success, I think, than if he expects to run and win.

And that picture with ‘Amr Moussa above is also a reminder that even some highly prominent Egyptians who got where they are through the Mubarak regime are becoming critical of the inevitability of a Mubarak dynasty. And it suggests ElBaradei is willing to tap into the establishment as well as the opposition.

It would be interesting to know what the senior officer corps thinks of all this. Impossible to find out, but interesting to know.

Israeli Seizure of Arms Ship

Israel is making a big deal out of its seizure of a ship off Cyprus carrying Iranian arms to Hizbullah (I am, here, accepting their interpretation). In fact, Netanyahu has told Israeli Embassies abroad to publicize the matter. Here's another article.

And, while I'm not following Netanyhahu's orders to his embassies, in the interest of fairness and giving you something to watch, here's the video of the seizure:

Post Mortems on Doha: Do These Men Look Comfortable with Each Other?

Do these men really look comfortable with each other? Talk about awkward body language in an official photograph. Note the amount of space between them and their facial expressions, not to mention Qadhafi's slouch. And what is it with Qadhafi's right leg? Is that his Superman cape, or what? And this was their big reconciliation meeting after Qadhafi denounced ‘Abdullah. Really convincing reconciliation if this is the best photo they could manage.

The Doha fizzle is drawing a lot of comment in the Arab world, and Marc Lynch has done a good round-up here so I'll just refer you to him and not bother to do the same thing here. And if you don't follow his blog at Foreign Policy regularly, if you didn't see his last day of Doha posting I'd refer it to you both for content, and especially for his leading me to this great picture of King ‘Abdullah "making up" with Qadhafi. Talk about awkward body language. I'm reproducing a copy of it here but not from the Foreign Policy website as I have no idea what copyright claims they might have to their version and, as an Editor and publisher, I revere copyright. So I stole this one overseas. I think it's a Saudi Press Agency shot originally.