Morsi's Brinksmanship on Ethiopia: A Dangerous Game?

Egypt's President Morsi, in an address to a rally of Islamist groups yesterday, called for Egyptians to unite against an external threat, in this case the controversial Ethiopian dam.

Conventional wisdom seems to be that Morsi is using the dam project as an attempt to rally the opposition behind him prior to big anti-Morsi demonstrations scheduled for June 30 and marking one year in power. From Ahram Online:

The president also said that "all options" were on the table to respond to the current situation and insisted that Egypt would not accept infringements on its water security.

"We have said several times that Egyptians with their revolution carry a message of peace...We do not want war, but we do not accept threats to our security."

Morsi also asked opposing political forces to stand united at a time when Egypt faces hard challenges and to put aside all political rivalries. He went on to call for "national reconciliation," adding that he was certain that political figures would respond positively to his appeals.

"The country demands that we stand united," he said, issuing his call for reconciliation only weeks before planned mass demonstrations on 30 June to demand snap presidential elections.

Morsi did say Egypt is committed to dialogue with Ethiopia and praised dialogue over other approaches, but the implied threat was clearly there.

While the outreach to his domestic opponents may be welcome, the apparent escalation of an international dispute in order to rally unity at home can be risky, and is already drawing criticism. International grandstanding and brinksmanship in an escalating situation can spin out of control easily; that should be obvious in the week of the 46th anniversary of the 1967 war, when Egypt paid a huge price for just such brinksmanship. True, Ethiopia and Egypt share no common border, and threats may be seen as empty, but domestic posturing in international disputes can put diplomatic solutions at risk.

Algeria's Water Minister Named PM: Is This the New Trend, or What?

Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika named Water Resources Minister Abdelmalek Sallal as Algeria's new Prime Minister yesterday. He replaces veteran Prime Minister Ahmed Ouyahia. The appointment ends a period of uncertainty since the Parliamentary elections in May, after which no new government was announced.

You may recall that Egypt's new Prime Minister, Hesham Qandil, was Water Resources Minister before he was named PM by President Morsi. Water is certainly important in the region, but when did this traditionally technocratic position become the route to the Prime Ministry? Is this a new fad? Morsi was new at his job, but Bouteflika is, well. rather experienced at this sort of thing,  to say the least. And Ouyahia has been a veteran figure. Water Resources: the New Road to Power?

Nile Basin Initiative Meeting in Danger of Collapse

A meeting of countries that share the waters of the Nile has hit snags in Alexandria. Egypt is holdingy firm on not yielding its traditional level of usage of Nile waters.

This is one of those relatively obscure issues that rarely captures attention, since it lacks the sizzle of Israeli settlements or the price of oil, but in an arid region, water is a critical commodity. And with growing populations and a finite supply of potable water, the Middle East is likely to face more and more disputes over water resources with the passage of time.

Herodotus famously said that Egypt is the Gift of the River, and it appears that Egypt and Sudan are intent on maintaining their water usage levels despite pressure from the upriver states to consume less. This sort of dispute is going to be more and more frequent, I suspect.