Egyptian Court Annuls Tiran/Sanafir Agreement

An Egyptian Administrative Court has annulled the April agreement with Saudi Arabia transferring the islands of Tiran and Sanafir to Saudi sovereignty.

The agreement had provoked widespread demonstrations and charges that the government was selling Egyptian sovereign territory to Saudi Arabia. As I noted in April, the history of the islands is complex, and further complicated by the fact that they are part of Area C in the Egyptian-Israeli Peace Treaty.

The government has already said it will appeal to the Supreme Administrative Court, which will have the final say. Although President al-Sisi has said that there are documents proving the islands are rightfully Saudi, no such documents were reportedly introduced at the trial.

Israel Gives Green Light to Saudi-Egyptian Islands Deal

Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon and other senior Israelis have said Israel was informed in advance and is not concerned about the transfer of Tiran and Sanafir islands from Egypt to Saudi Arabia, since the Saudis are committed to maintaining the guarantees of the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty. Saudi Arabia has said that this does not mean normalization with Israel, but it appears to be another instance of the growing commonality of interest between Israel and the conservative Sunni Gulf states.

Within Egypt there is growing criticism for the deal, with many charging that President Sisi "sold" Egyptian territory to the Saudis in exchange for aid.


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Transferring Tiran and Sanafir: The Legal and Sovereignty Issues

Announcements during King Salman's visit to Egypt that the two countries are planning to build a bridge from Saudi Arabia to Sinai connecting their territories, and that Egypt was recognizing the islands of Tiran and Sanafir, in the Straits of Tiran, as Saudi territory, have raised some eyebrows, especially the latter.

The bridge,which would  bypass Jordanian and Israeli territory to connect KSA with Egypt directly, raises questions over a number of environmental issues, but the transfer of the islands is even more controversial, and has long claimed the islands, which are part of its Ras Muhammad National Park and which are often visited by tourists in Sharm al-Sheikh.

Besides being unpopular with the Egyptian public, the transfer of the islands (which still must be approved by Parliament), the islands are also part of Area C under the Egyptian-Israeli Peace Treaty, the area to be demilitarized.  Saudi Arabia is not a party to the treaty.

The islands have been in dispute since he British and Ottoman eras, and the Saudis had possession until 1950 when they allowed Egypt to occupy them to prevent possible Israeli occupation.Under Nasser, Egypt claimed them as its own territory. When Nasser closed the Strait in 1967, provoking the 1967 war, its blockade was made possible by Egypt's control of the islands. Israel occupied them along with Sinai. When it evacuated the last parts of Sinai in 1982, it returned them to Egypt, but Saudi Arabia reasserted its claims. At that time Israel indicated it would consider any transfer of the islands to be a violation of the Peace Treaty.

Is that still the case? Perhaps not, since the emerging tacit Israeli cooperation with the Gulf States over Iran may mean Israel was kept in the loop, but issues involving the treaty could resurface, though some reports say the status quo will remain undisturbed despite the transfer of sovereignty.

Egypt claims that the transfer is in keeping with a 1990 Mubarak-era decree on Egypt's territorial seas, but many Egyptians see the transfer as payment for continuing Saudi financial support for Egypt.

A Turkish Enclave Deep Inside Syria

Turkish Soldiers at Tomb (Wikipedia)

 

 

Several papers, including Hurriyet Daily News,  have run this story about how Turkish soldiers still guard a tomb that is a small island of sovereign Turkish territory deep within Syria, despite the ongoing upheavals in Syria. I'd thought of posting on this once a while back, as it's the kind of obscure historical sidelight I enjoy dropping in from time to time, but as far as I can tell I never did, and now the Associated Press beat me to it. So, better late than never, I'll take note of it.

Location

It's the tomb, or at least the reputed tomb, of Suleyman Shah, grandfather of Osman who founded the Ottoman Empire. He is said to have drowned in the Euphrates at Qal‘at Ja‘bar, and the tomb believed to be his was honored during Ottoman times. In the 1921 Treaty of Ankara between the Turkish Republic and France (the Mandatory Power for Syria), the tomb was declared to be sovereign Turkish soil, an extraterritorial enclave within Syria. When the tomb was threatened with inundation by the waters of Lake Asad, the tomb and its extraterritorial status moved some distance to the north.

UAE-Iran Tensions Still Rising Over Ahmadinejad Visit; Ambassador Recalled, Soccer Game Canceled

Mahmoud Ahmidinejad's provocative recent visit to the disputed but Iranian-occupied island of Abu Musa infuriated the UAE (which claims Abu Musa and the Tunb islands, occupied by Iran), has led to heightened tensions across the Gulf just as there was a glimmer of hope for a breakthrough on the issue of Iran's nuclear program. The UAE recalled its Ambassador to Tehran, and has been calling for an international resolution of the longstanding dispute. Lest you doubt the seriousness of the tension, the UAE has now canceled a "friendly" soccer match scheduled with Iran.

The timing of Ahmadinejad's visit, seemingly counter to the general thrust of Iran's more conciliatory recent tone, is still a mystery.

Egypt's Campaign in North Sinai

Is there anything that both the Israeli Government and Hamas agree upon? Why yes: they both are supportive of Egypt's current military operations in Northern Sinai.

In the wake of a series of bombings of Egyot's gas pipeline to Israel, an outburst of militant violence recently in al-‘Arish, and the apperarance of flyers in Rafah claiming to speak for "Al-Qa‘da in Sinai," Egyptian Army units have moved into northern Sinai, restoring order and arresting militants.

Egypt had to obtain prior consent from Israel, since under the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty, eastern Sinai is demilitarized. Hamas in Gaza reportedly has also approved the operation.

There are also reports that Ramzi Muhammad al-Mowafi, "the chemist," a former personal doctor of Usama bin Laden, escaped from prison during the Revolution, and has since been spotted operating in Sinai.

Leftwing activist Hossam al-Hamalawy has wondered if this is a "Wag the Dog" operation to increase support for the Army; noting that as recently as June, the Head of the National Security Sector (State Security's replacement) told reporters there were no al-Qa‘ida supporters anywhere in Egypt. (Report at link is in Arabic.)

But there's no doubt that her has been escalating violence in Sinai, the bloodshed in al-‘Arish, and the attacks on the pipeline, and that Islamist militants of some variety are involved. Nor is Mowafi believed to be the only militant to have escaped prison in January.

New MEI Policy Brief on Terrorism in North Africa and the Sahel

MEI has published a new Policy Brief by Jacques Rousselier, "Terrorism in North Africa and the Sahel: Al-Qa‘ida's Franchise or Freelance?" The link is to the website; for the full text in PDF, go here.

Israel to Withdraw from Ghajar, Partially at Least

The town of Ghajar, an ‘Alawite town in the Golan Heights on the Lebanese border, has been a thorny issue for years. You'll find this blog has revisited it many times, and that link in te previous sentence will also link you to YouTube video and podcasts of an MEI presentation by Asher Kaufman of Notre Dame, not to mention his article in the Middle East Journal (only free to subscribers; sorry). Well, it looks like after a lot of discussion, Israel is finally going to withdraw from the northern half of the town, which it acknowledges as Lebanese. The southern half, which was Syrian before 1967 (some argue the northern half was, too) remains under Israeli occupation like the rest of the Golan.

This being the Middle East, of course, it's not as simple as it sounds, or as immediate as it might be. Although the Security Cabinet has authorized the withdrawal, the details are being negotiated between Israel and the United Nations (emphatically not between Israel and Lebanon), since Israel wants UNIFIL to take over security, fearing the alternative will be Hizbullah.

And of course no one asked the residents of Ghajar. Israeli reports suggest they want Israel to remain, and are protesting the withdrawal.

Most Ghajar residents consider themselves Syrian, and say they were never considered a part of Lebanon; the town expanded northward during Israel's long occupation of South Lebanon from 1982 to 2000, and has been reunited since 2006. They fear partition will separate families, and owners from their farmland. Many accepted Israeli citizenship during the long years of occupation, and may fear retribution, especially if Hizbullah moves in. So while the end of occupation is a step forward, absent a solution to the Golan Heights as well, it may have unfortunate personal impact on those involved.

Also, stand by: Israel still has to negotiate the details with UNIFIL, and Israeli negotiations with the UN (unless they've worked it out behind closed doors already) may not be automatic.

Sheikh Saqr and the Tunbs

When Queen Mary of England learned of the fall of the long-English town of Calais to the French, she reportedly said that when she died and her body was opened, "you will find 'Calais' written upon my heart."

For Sheikh Saqr of Ras al-Khaimah, who died yesterday at age 92 (earlier posts here and here), the word would be "Tunbs."

If you're not familiar with the Tunbs, you probably haven't known many Emiratis, since the subject does tend to come up. The Greater and Lesser Tunb Islands (Tunb al-Kubra and Tunb al-Sughra in Arabic; Tonb-e Bozorg and Tonb-e Kuchek in Persian)(pronounced in Arabic as if spelled Tumb) are two tiny islands in the Strait of Hormuz. Since November 1971 they have been occupied by Iran, but claimed by the UAE, along with the island of Abu Musa. Before 1971 the Tunbs were administered by the Emirate of Ras al-Khaimah, ruled from 1948 until yesterday by Sheikh Saqr, while Abu Musa was administered by Sharja. (My sense is the two Wikipedia links lean to the Iranian view of the dispute, but they introduce the subject.)

As the map shows, the Tunbs are located between the main shipping lanes of the Strait of Hormuz, the key outlet for Gulf oil. Abu Musa sits just to the south. They are a strategic planner's delight: potential power bases on a key global chokepoint.

In 1971, as the British retreated from "East of Suez," what had been the "Trucial States" prepared to join together in the UAE, and Iran — Imperial Iran under the Shah, remember — claimed the islands as historically Iranian. The withdrawing British were not prepared for a confrontation and may have felt Iran would be the better steward of the Strait. (After all, Iran would always be a staunch ally of the West.)

Under the gun, Sharja reached a deal allowing Iran sand Sharja to share Abu Musa. Sheikh Saqr of Ras al-Khaimah steadfastly refused to compromise on the Tunbs. Iran occupied Abu Musa peaceably, the Tunbs by military force.

Since that time, Iran has been in possession of all three islands (eventually taking full control of Abu Musa in effect) and keeps them well garrisoned (even Lesser Tunb, which historically was uninhabited). The UAE has never relinquished its claim, and has produced a lot of documentation arguing its case, but Iran has refused to take the case to the World Court. Sheikh Saqr never forgot the Tunbs. The UAE has produced reams of documents, but Iran has the islands.

I won't judge the historical claims. Sovereignty has meant different things at different times, and the two sides of the Gulf have traded and fished and pearled since Classical times. There are Arab speakers on the Iranian side and Persian speakers on the Arabian side, and no argument is likely to persuade an Iranian or an Emirati of the merit of the other case. Like the "Persian Gulf" controversy, it is a matter of firm national conviction.

But Sheikh Saqr never lost faith, and never compromised.

Bahraini Fisherman Shot in Qatari Waters

A Bahraini fisherman was shot in Qatari waters over the weekend, awakening a longstanding feud between the two GCC states. The Bahraini fishermen are blaming Bahraini land reclamation for forcing them to fish neighboring waters, but tensions between the two are hardly new.

Bahrain and Qatar have feuded for much of the past century. The ruling families, the Al Khalifa of Bahrain and the Al Thani of Qatar, have been longtime rivals, and the Al Khalifa once owned the now-ruined town of Zubara on the western side of the Qatar peninsula. Their dispute over the Hawar Islands and other territorial claims went to the Hague in what the World Court described as the longest case it had ever adjudicated; it was finally decided in 2001. In the 1980s they fought over a reef called Fasht al-Dibal until after Saudi intervention, the reef was dredged to below the water level.

At the time of the World Court decision, I wrote up the decision in my since-defunct newsletter here (and part two here), and in fact a detailed article by a scholar on the subject is going to appear in a forthcoming issue of the Journal. But despite the World Court decision and plans to build a friendship causeway connecting the two countries, obviously there are still sore spots.

Friday Roundup

I was brief on my weekend reading post last Friday because I was out of town and on vacation, but the pickings are still a bit sparse due to the fact that nobody in their right mind is working in August.

• NPR recently gave us (meaning The Middle East Journal) a bit of a plug by quoting Asher Kaufman, an Israeli scholar at Notre Dame, on the Ghajar issue; Asher has a major piece on Ghajar coming out in the Autumn issue of the Middle East Journal, so the NPR piece is good hype for us. The NPR link has both text and a podcast. I know of only two people in the world who understand the border issues in the Syria-Lebanon-Israel border region: Asher Kaufman and Fred Hof, currently George Mitchell's man on the scene. There may be somebody at the UN, but those are the only two people I know who've spent years on the subject. Asher apparently is now working on a book on the theme.

• Some recent podcasts of MEI events while I was away: Qubad Talabani, the representative of the Kurdish Regional Government in DC (and Jalal Talabani's son), on Kurdistan After the Elections: A Discussion with Qubad Talabani. The description of the event is here. And from Abdel Moneim Said, a discussion of The Arab-Israeli Peace Process from and Egyptian Perspective. Said is the longtime head of the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, and recently was named Chairman of the Board of the Al-Ahram Group. The description of the event is here. As I always note for those of you in group offices, when you click on the podcast it starts to play, so use earphones if you have close neighbors.
  

• The US Institute for Peace has a video of its Conference on "Online Discourse in the Arab World: Dispelling the Myths," on "mapping the Arabic blogosphere." Here's the text summary. I haven't yet had time to watch this, but it's an always interesting subject.

• Over at WINEP, Simon Henderson is producing more Saudi succession speculation; the cover page is here and the full PDF document is here.

• Also at WINEP, David Schenker and J. Scott Carpenter offer their take on Mubarak Comes to Washington. I'll be addressing that shortly myself. Also from WINEP: Mohammad Yaghi on "Fatah Congress: A Victory for Abbas."

That's it for now.

Update: Iran Hopes to Persuade Bahrain to Continue Gas Talks

It sounds as if Iran is trying hard to persuade Bahrain to come back to the table over the big natural gas deal that was put on hold over Ayatollah 'Ali Nateq-Nuri's remarks about Bahrain being a province of Iran. Certainly Iran needs the money from the gas deal, and the Foreign Ministry has done its best to calm the troubled waters created by the remarks. The fact that pretty much the same thing happened two years ago -- that time, the Iranian President actually visited Bahrain to patch things up -- suggests the level of suspicion about Iran's intentions that lies just below the surface in the Gulf.

Backgrounder: Iran-Bahrain Flap Threatens Gas Deal

Iran is trying to defuse a sudden storm in the Arab Gulf states over a prominent Iranian cleric's remarks implying Bahrain had been Iranian territory, after Bahrain put a major natural gas deal on hold over the issue. Ayatollah 'Ali Akbar Nateq-Nuri reportedly made remarks referring to Bahrain as having formerly been Iran's 14th province, seemingly reviving long-latent claims to the island.

Such assertions are made from time to time by Iranian nationalists; in 2007 an editorial in the newspaper Kayhan made the claim and provoked demonstrations in Bahrain. But President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad made a visit to Bahrain later that year and the gas deal the Bahrainis have now put on hold was the result of that rapprochement; now it may be a victim of a renewed Iranian provocation. This time the remarks were attributed to Nateq-Nuri, former Speaker of Parliament, former Presidential candidate (defeated by Mohammad Khatami), and current member of the powerful Expediency Council. Nateq-Nuri is a senior figure from the conservative wing of the clerical establishment; Bahrain has won support from Kuwait and Saudi Arabia in the present dispute.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry has reasserted that Iran has no territorial claims on its neighbors and recognizes Bahraini sovereignty; it claimed Nateq-Nuri's remarks had been misrepresented and he was not talking about Bahrain, though as quoted he certainly seemed to be.

Various accounts of the flap are here, here, here and here. It is perhaps worth filling in the background a bit, since as noted, this is not the first eruption of Iranian claims against Bahrain.

Bahrain has had human settlement since prehistoric times and was probably the Dilmun referred to in Sumerian texts; in short the islands have been at the center of trade and politics since earliest times and, not surprisingly, at one time or another Bahrain has been ruled by many different hands, including the Portugese, Omanis, and British. During the 17th and 18th centuries the islands were generally under Iranian suzerainty, often ruled indirectly through Hormuz or Bushire. Bahrainis generally trace their throwing off Iranian rule to 1783. In the 19th century the islands, already ruled by the Al Khalifa who are still the ruling family, came under British protection.

Bahrain has a Persian-speaking merchant minority, but the majority of the population speak Arabic; the majority are, however, Shi'ite, though the ruling family is Sunni. Iranian nationalists sometimes use the Shi'ite majority as a reason to claim that the Bahrainis are really Iranians, despite their Arabic speech.

In 1970, as Bahrain approached independence with the withdrawal of Britain from east of Suez by 1971, the late Shah of Iran asserted a claim to Bahrain and to other islands in the Gulf, including Abu Musa and the Tunbs, also claimed by Sharja (Abu Musa) and Ras al-Khaima (the Tunbs), two of the later constituents of the UAE. In complex negotiations Iran cut a deal with the British over Abu Musa and the Tunbs and promised it would "not pursue" its claims to Bahrain. In a referendum, Bahrain chose independence and has asserted its Arab identity through membership in pan-Arab organiztions.

After 1971 the Shah dropped his "pursuit" of the claim, but since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, the Islamic Republic has alternated between expressing a claim and recognizing Bahrain's sovereignty. Ahmadinejad's 2007 visit to Bahrain was seen as a means of burying the hatchet and assuaging hurt feelings from the Kayhan editorial that same year. But the old wound has been reopened with Nateq-Nuri's attributed remarks.

The Foreign Ministry's scramble to defuse the situation -- Iran's current economy cannot afford scuttling the natural gas deal -- suggests that this will prove a momentary diversion rather than lead to a new crisis, but it also shows how sensitive the Arab Gulf states are towards Iranian power at the moment, in the shadow of Iran's nuclear program.

The Gulf is riddled with latent territorial disputes, a handful of which have been resolved in recent years (the Hawar Islands dispute between Qatar and Bahrain by the World Court; the Saudi-Yemeni border by bilateral negotiation) but others still linger, including the aforementioned Abu Musa and the Tunbs, occupied by Iran but claimed by the UAE. Iraq's intermittent claims to all of Kuwait, of course, led to the invasion of 1990 and the war of 1991.