Egypt Now Blaming Lebanese Officials: Is Egypt Now Overreaching, As Hizbullah Did?

Egypt's propaganda drumbeat against Hizbullah for the cell supposedly plotting attacks in Egypt had already broadened to include denunciations of Iran and protests to the head of Iran's interest section in Egypt. In the last day or so, the net has widened to include allegations that Lebanese government officials were involved in the plot. Variants of the story appear here, here, and here. The "complicity" of Lebanese authorities seems to consist of issuing a passport in a false name to the head plotter.

The way Egypt is handling this story is, I think, a reflection of the current deep divisions in the Arab world between the states we tend to label "moderate" (Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia) and the states more closely aligned with Iran (Syria, Lebanon, sometimes Qatar). In quieter times these sorts of stories tend to be swept under the rug, but at the moment Egypt has chosen to use the story as a weapon to bash Iran and now, it appears, Lebanon.

There may be some pitfalls in the continuing propaganda campaign, however. Hizbullah seems to have overreached by meddling in the internal affairs of another Arab state, and Egyptians of all political leanings have a natural inclination to reject external interference in Egypt, which evokes memories of European colonial rule. But two other elements are in play here that could ultimately backfire on the government, which may itself now be overreaching in its overreaction. The first is that Egyptians have a longstanding tendency to distrust government accounts of anything (if it's in the newspaper, it must not be true: trust what you hear at the coffeehouse instead), and despite some suspicions of Hizbullah's Shi‘ite identity and Iranian links, there is also a latent admiration of Hizbullah for its taking the full force of Israeli wrath in 2006 and surviving. While I think that this post suggesting that most Egyptians sympathize with Hizbullah is overstated (I suspect most Egyptians don't think about it very much), the Muslim Brotherhood's Supreme Guide has expressed similar sentiments, and there is a potential for alienating public opinion if the government keeps up the drumbeat. Hasan Nasrallah's defense of his agent was to insist that Hizbullah was only trying to provide arms to Gaza, and that is a popular cause in Egypt. The government, I think, may itself be guilty of overreach.