Some thoughts on Obama in Turkey

There are a lot of people — including many here at MEI — better qualified than I to discuss the US Foreign Policy implications of President Barack Obama's visit to Turkey, so I think I'll take a slightly different tack and consider how the visit is likely to be perceived by observers in the region.

As I think the President realizes, or is learning rapidly, the region is not a monolith, and insofar as his initial message seems to be that the US is not at war with Islam, he is able to articulate something of the nuanced variety of the region. An early visit to a Muslim country was promised early on, and this is it.

The main debate among regional observers seems to be about the appropriateness of Turkey as the venue. Let's consider the pros and cons for a moment.

On the positive side:

• Turkey is a NATO ally. As the only — oops, Albania's membership became effective last Thursday, so make that "as the oldest" — predominantly Muslim member of NATO, Turkey has a certain claim to precedence.
• US-Turkish relations could use a boost. Since the Iraq war, US-Turkish relations have been a bit rocky. Thus a goodwill visit should help; despite some protests most Turkish commentary seems to be positive (at least in English; I don't read Turkish).
• Turkey plays some key diplomatic roles. In addition to providing good offices for the Israeli-Syrian contacts last year, it is a useful intermediary with Iran as well.
• Major embarrassments are unlikely. Turkey has good security, at least in the major cities; many other Muslim countries would have posed a greater problem.

On the negative side:

• All of the above. The very reasons that made Turkey an attractive choice will be used by other countries to dismiss the significance of the visit, to portray it as something of a cop-out: "he's not visiting the Islamic world, he's visiting a NATO Ally." He seems to be preaching to the choir, not to the skeptics. Visiting an Arab country such as Egypt, or a non-Arab ally such as Pakistan, would have likely seen more protests but also would have been seen in the region as a bit more daring, though the Secret Service would no doubt have objected. (Another possible choice, Indonesia, where Obama was partly raised, is the world's most populous Muslim country but Middle Easterners generally do not identify with it at all.)
  
• Turkey's secularist and European-leaning self-identity. Although currently ruled by the Justice and Development Party (AKP), which has Islamist roots, Turkey's elite culture is resolutely secularist, or laicist as the Turks themselves tend to say. Its Kemalist history and resolute state-backed secularism (the ban on headscarves in public buildings, the use of Sunday rather than Friday as the day off, etc.) mean that many Muslim countries see it as hardly Islamic at all (though of course the vast bulk of the population still is). Its determined efforts to join Europe (though so far unsuccessful) mean that until the rise of the AKP Turkey was often perceived as turning its back on the Middle East.
• The visit seems like an afterthought. After the high profile G-20 summit, the NATO visit and visiting a variety of old and new allies in Europe, the much heralded visit to a Muslim country seems to have been relegated to a "while I'm in the neighborhood" type of afterthought. I don't think it is, but I think some may perceive it that way.

In any event, it is better to have a President visiting a Muslim country and urging greater understanding and coexistence, than the alternatives.