Prometheus Bound, But Not Without Options

This is a late-night post which may be overtaken by events at any time, so if what I'm writing now is no longer relevant in the morning, at least it's on the record.

A Reuters report here, noting the limitations of US power when dealing with a situation like the hostage-taking of the ship captain by the Somali pirates, is echoed by tomorrow's New York Times here, on the limits of military power etc., etc. The world's most powerful Navy can't seem to deal with a lifeboat full of pirates. Well, naturally. We don't want any harm to befall the hostage, so our military options are limited: Prometheus Bound.

But wait: If I understand the situation correctly, the Somali pirates and the captain are in a small lifeboat, either unpowered or with no operable power source, a US destroyer sitting next to them and the better part of an international task force headed their way. What to do?

The FBI is doing the negotiations and the usual police approach to hostage situations is to get the hostage-takers negotiating and keep them talking. Their only bargaining chip is the captain, and if reports are correct, they already broke their agreement once when the crew released a captured pirate but they didn't release the captain. But when they do release the captain, even if it's in exchange for tons of money, what then? They are hundreds of miles offshore in an unpowered boat with a reasonable likelihood of a SEAL Team and a Marine Recon force in the immediate vicinity. Having broken their own word once, will they trust us to keep ours if we pledge safe passage? (These are pirates, remember. Not only are they not known for square dealing, but they also know that under international maritime law, if captured, they're toast.) It's a classic standoff.

On the other hand, if they harm the captain in any way, they have no hope of getting home safely. Not only that SEAL Team but a great deal of whatever force Fifth Fleet can bring to bear (I suspect it's pretty shock-and-awesome if it comes to that) will be directed at them.

How to extricate oneself from such a standoff is not immediately clear, but one thing is: their only hope of getting home is to take very good care of their hostage. And the longer this goes on, the more likely our special operators, Navy and/or Marine, will be working out a way to end it.

And once it's over, the US may be a bit more ready to work with other maritime nations to suppress the pirate nests along the coast.

Prometheus Bound? Limits of military power? Yes, while a hostage is at stake. But that makes the hostage takers all the more reluctant to free him, because of what may befall them when they do. We no longer have the bluster of a Teddy Roosevelt and "Perdicaris Alive or Raisuli Dead!," nor should we (we've blustered enough in recent years), but these pirates are probably rethinking their decision to go after an American ship for the first time. I don't want to sound jingoistic or anything, but I have a great deal of respect for the power of the United States Navy, and I suspect there's going to be a lot more to this story once the immediate hostage situation is resolved.