Those Sudan Strikes: Something Still Missing

The reports a week ago of the supposed Israeli air strike(s) on Sudan were overshadowed by other events — the Doha Summit, the Netanyahu Cabinet — but there is still a trickle of information coming out: a report that Egypt's Foreign Minister says Egypt knew about them at the time, for example. But there is still something strange about the whole affair. Admittedly, sometimes covert operations aimed at interdicting other covert operations remain hidden in the murky realm where they take place, but there are still some dubious aspects to the story as reported. Some versions claim that a ship carrying Iranian arms was also sunk in the Red Sea. Beyond that being a clearcut act of war, the sinking of a ship on the high seas usually does not occur without some notice, especially in as busy a sealane as the Red Sea.

The Arabist has bookmarked a report by DebkaFile, the wild, and often wildly wrong, Israeli website claiming to offer inside intelligence; even they find something wrong with the story as it's being reported. Several commenters on my earlier posts have also expressed doubts, especially about the Iranian connection.

I have no direct knowledge of what happened, and the stories told by Sudan have been inconsistent and sometimes wildly exaggerated. Here are some random observations:

• There certainly are smugglers' routes from Sudan through Egypt; but they have usually been routes used for refugees, drugs, or other contraband. Small arms no doubt pass that way too, but it would not seem to be the most efficient way to deliver a major arms cache. There are shorter routes from Iran to Gaza than through the Horn of Africa.
• At least one suspected ship carrying Iranian arms has already been intercepted and the last I heard was held in Cyprus; there is an international embargo that can be used to prevent passage of contraband arms, and since a ship in the Red Sea would still have to transit the Suez Canal, there would be opportunity short of sinking it to intercept. Sinking a ship on the high seas seems unusually provocative and hard to hide.
• By some accounts this happened in January during the Gaza operation. Why did it take so long to leak? No one is outright taking credit for it — it was US reports that pinned it on Israel when first reports blamed the US — although Ehud Olmert did hint that Israel had done something.

Offhand, and without knowing for certain, I suspect that there was some kind of raid (probably by Israel) against some sort of convoy in Sudan. I have my doubts that a ship was sunk in the Red Sea, until more details come out. I suspect some of the wilder stories (that missiles or other major arms were involved, for example, or that there have been a number of different raids) may be confused or outright disinformation on somebody's part. I don't deceive myself that the Iranians would not smuggle arms, but I question why such a roundabout route would be used. A run down the Mediterranean coast from some point in Syria such as Tartus or Latakia could reach Gaza or a deserted stretch of Sinai more readily than going via the Horn of Africa.

I'm not sure we'll know for certain what happened precisely. There are still a number of covert operations in the recent history of the Middle East that have not leaked out, at least in accurate detail. It's at least possible that whatever really happened in Sudan is being deliberately obscured by the classic disinformation strategy of leaking an exaggerated, somewhat wild account that cannot be proven.