The Syria-Iraq Feud

I haven't posted anything much on the current feud between Syria and Iraq, other than to note the withdrawal of ambassadors while back. Now that Turkey is trying to bring them together, it may be time to add a bit.

Iraq's original accusation of Syrian involvement in bombings in Iraq didn't provide a great deal of evidence, and the United States has stayed out of the fight. Many observers seem to have concluded that this was a ploy on Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's part to look tough prior to the upcoming Iraqi elections, but that he may have overplayed his hand. Here's a selection of comments collected by Syria Comment a few days ago.

My own sense is that Maliki is not quite sure how to proceed. A new Shi‘ite coalition that excluded his Da‘wa Party has been formed, which could threaten his ability to remain Prime Minister after the elections. Picking a fight with Syria may have seemed a good way to rally support, but Bashar al-Asad has been fighting back, and now the Turks are trying to patch things up.

Maliki may have misread the tea leaves. Right now the US is much more interested in finding openings to Syria than demonizing it. The Bush era in which all things Syrian and all thins Ba‘athist were seen as part of the axis of evil has been replaced with a more pragmatic and engaged approach. The US silence over the Iraq-Syria feud (or perhaps, Maliki-Syria feud would ber more accurate) has left Maliki out on the proverbial limb. He seems to be climbing down, gradually.

Little of this looks good in terms of Maliki's long-term employment prospects. (As an aside, Marc Lynch has some interesting thoughts today on the US assumption that the Iraqi elections early next year will solve a great deal, noting that the elections in Lebanon, Iran, and Afghanistan have all created more conflict than resolution. It's a useful point.)