The Worst-Case Scenario in Afghanistan?

Abu Muqawama wonders if the latest Afghan news is the worst-case scenario for election results. It's certainly not good news. Karzai has passed the 50% mark, which means he can theoretically avoid a runoff, but he has only a narrow margin, and the UN-supported electoral commission has reported finding "clear and convincing evidence of fraud" and ordered a number of recounts. As Abu Muqawama notes, the worst-case scenario was "'another Iran' -- only with our fingerprints all over it."

Indeed. The timing isn't great either, coming at a moment when Afghanistan is becoming a lively subject of debate in the US Administration (until recently seemingly committed to escalation). And on top of the civilian casulaties in Kunduz, which have also stirred up a lot of controversy in Germany (since it was a German unit that called in the air strike in question), the whole Kunduz affair both tests General McChrystal's new approach and weakens the German commitment to the NATO mission (there's been a lot of outrage at home in Germany).

In short, not the electoral result one would have preferred.