Mahmoud ‘Abbas Paints Self in Corner, With US Help

Well, those hopes for an Egyptian-brokered Palestinian reconciliation plan leading to 2010 elections are looking a bit dim right now, what with Hamas' leadership accusing Mahmoud ‘Abbas of "treason" and of justifying Israel's war in Gaza. They're furious, as are a lot of other Palestinians, over the Palestinian Authority's decision to ask the United Nations Human Rights Council to defer a vote on a resolution condemning Israel's Gaza war in response to the Goldstone Report.

I've stayed away from the Goldstone report because a) it's gotten plenty of ink and plenty of blog pixels everywhere else, and b) up to now it's mostly been one of those typical Israeli-Palestinian feuds where Israel accuses the UN of anti-Semitism while the Palestinians accuse the Israelis of war crimes. Been there, done that. But now the strange decision by the Palestinian Authority to postpone a vote condemning Israel has backfired, to the detriment of President Mahmoud ‘Abbas and Prime Minister Salam Fayyad.

Israel is accused of not cooperating with the Goldstone Report's investigation, though the report itself found that both Israel and Hamas had been guilty of violations of the laws of war in the conflict. Israel has denounced the Goldstone Report as biased, and the US has joined in the criticism to some extent, and there are reports that it was intense US pressure that led ‘Abbas to request the deferral of the vote.

‘Abbas has now asked for a committee of inquiry to look into who ordered the deferral of the vote; this is interesting since many reports say it was ‘Abbas himself. As Marc Lynch commented yesterday, "gee, wonder what he'll find when he investigates his own decision?" I share Lynch's puzzlement over the US thinking if indeed it pressured ‘Abbas into a deferral, except that I've seen the US shoot its own friends in the foot enough times through the years that I'm more dismayed than surprised. Let's assess the damage:

1. A week ago the Hamas leadership was speaking positively about reconciliation, new elections, etc. Now Isma‘il Haniyya is accusing ‘Abbas of supporting Israel's war in Gaza, and Mahmoud Zafar is calling for stripping him of his Palestinian citizenship. So much for that breakthrough to peace.
2. Tensions were high again on Friday on the Haram al-Sharif/Temple Mount, and Palestinian anger at Israel is seething. A great time to have the Palestinian President accused of being an Israeli stooge.
3. As Lynch's post noted, this is another blow to US hopes for new openings with the Arab and Muslim world, since the US is perceived of having intervened on Israel's behalf to persuade the Palestinian Authority to block a condemnation of Israel.
4. All of this is beside the point that if Israel had cooperated with the Goldstone investigation, they might not have received such a negative assessment from the report.
5. And ‘Abbas has now painted himself into a political corner, which may also include PM Salam Fayyad (who some say was pushing for the pressure), and whose economic reforms have been much praised by the West.
   

In other words, if the US was really behind this, we probably just did serious damage to the Palestinian faction we favor, to the benefit of Hamas. Unintended consequences to be sure, but could no one see this coming? Israel has been condemned over and over by the UN and other bodies, and it's still doing most of what it wants to in the territories. If we thought the peace process would be advanced by blocking this vote using ‘Abbas as the instrument, I think we were wrong.