The Iraqi Election Returns

I haven't commented on the Iraqi election returns as they trickle in, because there's little to be learned from breathlessly counting every vote. The next government will emerge from Parliamentary maneuvering and deal-making. Some of the general media have been reporting that ‘Iyad ‘Allawi's Iraqiyya has "inched ahead" of Nuri al-Maliki's State of Law Alliance, as if that means ‘Allawi would be the next Prime Minister if he holds the lead. It's not that simple.

What's clear is that the two major alliances led by those two men have won virtually equal blocs in Parliament; if you look at the vote at the 95% reported stage over at Reidar Visser's, you'll see that they're only one seat apart. Don't forget the last Israeli elections: Kadima won the most seats, but ended up in opposition. And the Iraqi votes from abroad and the security forces' votes, I believe, have not yet been counted.

So, despite the highly public demand by Maliki (echoed by President Talabani) for a manual recount, nobody is on the verge of being counted out yet. I'm not an Iraq expert, and for now I'm taking a wait-and-see approach. This story begins to get interesting when the votes are final.