Nathan Brown on the Mubarak Succession

Nathan Brown, whose turf is constitutionalism in the Arab world and who's the best at what he does, offers some comments at FP's new Middle East Channel on "Who's Running Egypt?" In the absence of Mubarak, it's a good question. First, Nathan's key points, then some comments of my own:

The article [in al-Shuruq] suggested that the country appears to be run by an absent president, a technocratic prime minister, a few leading politicians, and a collection of men behind a curtain.

This is new. For all its faults, Egypt's political system generally makes clear who is in charge. The entire political order is carefully structured to have all lines of authority run to the president. As Mubarak has aged, however, his visible involvement in Egyptian politics has decreased, leading Egyptians to swap rumors about who is really running the country. Is it the security apparatus? His son? High members of the National Democratic Party? What is the role of his wife, a visible figure in Egyptian public life? Most important of all, who will follow him? Mubarak's illness has catapulted these questions from the rumor mill to the headlines. But it has not answered them.

Aside from its overenthusiastic punctuation, the al-Shuruq article calmly reported that Husni Mubarak had deputized Prime Minister Ahmad Nazif to take on day-to-day presidential responsibilities. But Nazif is no Alexander Haig asserting that he is in control. If there is an Egyptian Haig, he is not in sight. The article made clear that Nazif's authority is limited and that in important matters (such as those related to security) he consults with named and unnamed responsible authorities.

While there's little in Nathan's analysis I disagree with, I think I'd add a few things. I haven't been to Egypt for a while but I think you already know I watch it closely. So some comments:

• "the country appears to be run by an absent president, a technocratic prime minister, a few leading politicians, and a collection of men behind a curtain." And of course, the military and security services, though that's clear from some of the later comments. The men behind the curtain are the real story.
  

• This is new. Sort of. There have been periods of uncertainty in the past, but no President has been this old before.
  

• But Nazif is no Alexander Haig asserting that he is in control. If there is an Egyptian Haig, he is not in sight. No complaints on the "Nazif is no Alexander Haig" remark (younger and foreign readers: Haig was a Secretary of State who famously said "I'm in charge" when Ronald Reagan was shot, and died just recently). Nazif is just a technocrat. But "If there is an Egyptian Haig, he is not in sight" gives me more problems. Al Haig was sharp and ambitious and thought he had power, but I don't think Haig at his best could exercise the sheer power of ‘Omar Suleiman.

• As Mubarak has aged, however, his visible involvement in Egyptian politics has decreased, leading Egyptians to swap rumors about who is really running the country. Is it the security apparatus? His son? High members of the National Democratic Party? What is the role of his wife, a visible figure in Egyptian public life? Most important of all, who will follow him? Okay, my own take, purely subjective and probably incomplete, but let's take it in order:Is it the security apparatus? Yes. His son? No, not yet, though he pretty much controls the party. High members of the National Democratic Party? Yes, Gamal among them but not supreme, and with the security services looking over their shoulders. What is the role of his wife? Well, she's cast her lot with Gamal I suspect, and like Jihan al-Sadat has become a public figure in her own right, but also like Jihan, loses that job when her husband leaves the stage.

• I know Nathan is writing for a non-specialized audience here, so this isn't criticizing his statement, but I want to comment on this: The article made clear that Nazif's authority is limited and that in important matters (such as those related to security) he consults with named and unnamed responsible authorities. Well, as he most surely knows, he has to. Nazif has no power base of his own, and Nathan didn't need Al-Shuruq to tell him that. And the "unnamed responsible authorities"? Let's see: the aforementioned ‘Omar Suleiman, head of the General Intelligence Service and, increasingly, Lord High Everything Else (thank you, Gilbert and Sullivan); Habib al-‘Adli, Minster of the Interior and fellow who controls most of the internal security apparatus; Field Marshal Tantawi, Defense Minister but definitely third in the triumvirate. Oh, and Gamal, the Party leadership, and others. Including Suzanne (Mme Mubarak).