The OK Corral: Obama Gives Netanyahu an Ultimatum?

Is this a sea change?

Most of this is coming from the Israeli press, but to use a scholarly term of art: wow, just wow. The Jerusalem Post is reporting that Obama has insisted that Netanyahu clarify Israel's settlement policies by Saturday. Yes, that's Shabbat, and yes, I'm pretty confident the US knew that. Ha'aretz, which doesn't like Bibi, says the Inner (security) Cabinet is likely to split over the issue. And there are multiple reports out there that the Obama Administration wants the Arab League Summit in Sirt, Libya, to restate the Arab League Initiative, which Israel has so far ignored. Not surprisingly given his insight and eloquence, Akiva Eldar puts it all together for us at Ha'aretz.

If everything that's being reported is true, it sounds like Obama is trying to split the Netanyahu coalition. The major likely defector would of course be Ehud Barak and Labor, but if they did defect it would deprive Bibi of his fig leaf of center-leftists and leave him with nothing but the hard, nationalist/religious/loony right. He could (barely) govern with it, but Israel's international reputation would be degraded, and that is saying something. It could work, because Netanyahu himself is not as ideological as much of his coalition and even his own Likud — he has always struck me, and lots of Israelis I respect, as an opportunist. Up against the wall, a Likud-Kadima-Labor coalition might be more attractive to him than his present ultra coalition. (But since Kadima has more seats than Likud, he'd probably have to rotate the premiership with Tzipi Livni. That's why he didn't cut a national unity deal in the first place.)

Also at Ha'aretz, (yes, I know I'm showing my biases; it's my blog): Yossi Verter has this to say:

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu returned from the United States Thursday with egg all over his face but also with a painfully sharp insight - gone are the days when the White House was considerate about the intricacies of Israeli domestic politics.

Former prime ministers used to tell American presidents, "Understand, I have a problematic coalition." This no longer works. Obama is not making any effort to show sensitivity to Netanyahu's distress and worse - he's ignoring it as though he intends to wreak some political chaos here.

"Obama isn't only sticking the knife in," a minister said, "he's twisting it and enjoying it." Shock treatment, a senior Likud figure said Thursday about Netanyahu's experience in Washington. If it changed him, Netanyahu will soon have to make a strategic decision whose importance cannot be overestimated. He will not be able to make this decision in the seven ministers' forum, with people like Benny Begin, Moshe Ya'alon, Avigdor Lieberman and Eli Yishai.

I have to wonder if the coincidence of Netanyahu's AIPAC visit with the health care reform vote gave Obama some confidence about standing up to Netanyahu. And if the multiple affronts (to Biden and then to Obama himself) didn't firm up his resolve. Bibi, chutzpah has its merits, but when you go visit your major ally, financial supporter and defense provider, it may not be the moment to slap leather at the OK corral.