40 Days

Confrontations in the streets of Tehran re-erupted today as mourners sought to mark 40 days since the death of Neda Agha Sultan. This was expected — marking 40 days of mourning is traditional, and demonstrators and police both knew it was coming — but it also reminds us that the anger of the protesters is still present below the surface.

It's been pointed out before that a similar pattern preceded the Iranian Revolution of 1979. Protests began a full year before the fall of the Shah; demonstrators were killed, and 40 days later mourners would turn out, there would be more repression, and so on. It was not some sudden instance of storming the Bastille.

I'm not saying that's what's going to happen this time, but it's worth keeping in mind.