The Growing Succession Speculation in and Outside Egypt

Sometimes the level of coffeehouse speculation and buzz reaches a point where the media starts generating think pieces on a subject for reasons not always immediately obvious. So we seem to be enjoying a new flavor of the week in the commentary world: the possibility of an early succession in Egypt. The Guardian has weighed in; so has The Economist; there's an article in Middle East Forum; it's been a theme for the Egyptian independent press for some time now, and Egyptian bloggers regularly follow it. Having already brought this up on July 9, I'm not exactly joining the bandwagon late, but perhaps it's time to take another look at it.

My earlier posting and the other links mostly echo the rumors, supposedly leaks from Israeli intelligence or Saudi press speculation about what Mubarak may have told King ‘Abdullah, the common theme of which is that Husni Mubarak was so moved by the death of his young grandson recently that he plans to give up power early. Some reports hint at a health setback, perhaps a stroke. Mubarak's health has been subject to rumor for quite some time. Officially there have been denials of any early resignation plans.

On top of this there is the press speculation about the website and Facebook groups promoting the potential candidacy of Intelligence Chief ‘Omar Suleiman as an alternative to Gamal Mubarak; while the independent press is fascinated by this, the state media continues to promote Gamal. Neither Gamal nor Suleiman is an official candidate, at this stage, though as head of the National Democratic Party's Policy Bureau Gamal is well-placed to become the ruling party's nominee through the party's own structure, which he has been making his own for some years.

There has also been speculation that the People's Assembly, the lower house of Parliament, might be dissolved early and new elections held this year. (The next Parliamentary elections are due in October 2010; the Presidential term expires in 2011.)

And adding to the speculation, there's a new head of the Supreme Constitutional Court, a man with relatively limited judicial experience apparently, but with everyone noting that the holder of the post also holds ex officio the oversight of the Presidential elections. Any challenges to the elections or candidacies would go through him.

A few words of caution here: Husni Mubarak has always played the succession issue close to the chest, declining to name a Vice President, not making Gamal General Secretary of the NDP when many expected him to, etc. The whole ‘Omar Suleiman flutter may be a false flag operation or an attempt to create a sense of competitiveness, or it may be the Armed Forces' way of reminding the NDP that they have a say. (And it's far from clear if the Army brass would favor the Intel chief.)

For Egyptian succession issues I would invoke the same rule I generally raise when it comes to Saudi succession speculation: the more confident the assertion made by someone claiming to be in the know, the less likely they are to really know anything.

With that said, however, and keeping in mind the fact that for years succession talk was pretty much taboo among Egyptians, there is clearly a lot of speculation, and much of it suggesting something may happen sooner than 2011. I'm still cautious about whether there's any fire behind all the smoke, but given Mubarak's increasing age and seeming listlessness and absences from the public eye, it's worth keeping an eye on. I'll try to flag any further developments that may conifrm or debunk the various waves of speulation.