Rumors of an Early Mubarak Retirement?

Okay, let's start with this post at Israel Policy Forum, neither a sensational nor an ideological site generally (beyond the obvious alignment that their name indicates): "Early Retirement for Egyptian President Mubarak?" They're citing, mostly, Israeli sources.

Yesterday I noted rumors of a possible dissolution of Parliament. Is something going on here?

Maybe. It's not outrageously impossible, and I think the Israeli reports that Mubarak was deeply moved by the death of his young grandson may well be true. But are we really on the verge of a transition?

Mubarak is 81 and presumably has his moments of being fully aware of his age and mortality. I'm 20 year younger and have the same.

Unless we are all being led down a real path of disinformation, he wants Gamal to succeed him. But my own guess — emphasize the word guess since I have no direct knowledge or evidence — is that he doesn't want it to be as obviously dynastic as the Hafiz al-Asad/Bashar al-Asad succession, but wants it to at least look constitutional.

But he's been moving very slowly: instead of making Gamal the head of the National Democratic Party he simply made his Political Bureau post more powerful and eligible for succession.

There does seem to be opposition to Gamal, including the odd and perhaps false-flag flutter of support for Omar Suleiman; but most of all Mubarak the elder has held off settling the issue until he is himself weakening. If he dies before his term is out, or quits early, Gamal may not yet have the broad-based support he would need.

Don't ask me to predict; watch it and predict for yourself.