The Fatah Elections

While I was on vacation I kept my postings sparse and only addressed a few matters that demanded commentary. I didn't do much on the Fatah Conference in Bethlehem despite its importance to the stalled peace process. Now that the preliminary results of the Fatah Central Council elections are in, it's time to comment a bit.

The conventional wisdom that seems to be emerging seems to emphasize the victory of the "younger generation" over the "old guard." (Also here, and an Israeli assessment here.) But that doesn't mean a bunch of 20-somethings are taking over: this "younger generation" refers to men (no women won seats on the Central Council) in their 40s and 50s such as Marwan Barghouti (50), Muhammad Dahlan (48), and Jibril Rajoub (56). Nor do they share a common set of views; often, they have been rivals of each other.

On the whole I think the balanced and cautious assessment of Helena Cobban is probably on target. Overenthusiastic praise of the outbreak of democracy or the triumph of the young guard is an oversimplification. It seems as if the main member of the old guard to go down to defeat was Ahmad Qurei‘a, a veteran negotiator and familiar face, but interpreting his defeat as a symbol of the passing of the founding generation's power is probably reading too much into it.

It's also worth noting that the strong showing of Marwan Barghouti, who is in an Israeli prison but ran third in number of votes, is provoking debate in Israel over whether to release him. Since Israel convicted him of murder for killings carried out during the second Intifada, it is likely to prove controversial.

For extensive coverage in English of the Fatah elections, the Ma‘an News Agency site is useful.