Lebanon: Two Months After Elections, No Government in Sight

It has been more than two months since the June 7 Lebanese elections and some six weeks since the formal discussions on forming a government were initiated. It is hard to say that there is light at the end of the tunnel, though many Lebanese seem to be increasingly frustrated by the stalemate. And while some European countries famously take a long time to hammer out coalitions, the stakes are a bit different in, say, Belgium or the Netherlands, than in the flashpoint of several Middle Eastern rivalries and surrogate struggles, Lebanon.

March 14 — the generally pro-Western alignment led by Sa‘d Hariri and including the major Maronite parties and, until recently, Walid Jumblatt's Druze, won the most seats in the June elections. (Many analysts have noted that this was really a function of the electoral gerrymandering, and that their rivals known as March 7 actually won more votes. But it's the number of seats that count. You could ask Al Gore about Florida.) March 7 — consisting of General Michel ‘Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement, Hizbullah, the other main Shi‘ite Party Amal, and Sunni factions other than Hariri's — is seeking to participate in a broad government. General ‘Aoun has recently complicated matters by insisting that his son-in-law, Jibran Bassil, be a member of any new Cabinet. But that is not the only complication. All the outstanding issues of Lebanese politics come into play, and the wheeling and dealing goes on behind the scenes. Hariri himself has been relatively silent, saying that he prefers not to inflame matters by public statements, but plenty of others express their opinions regularly. (Actually the Naharnet story I linked to has him calling for "clam dialogue," at least as I write this, but the equivalent Daily Star article seems to suggest he called for "calm dialogue." Mollusks were not involved.)

And of course, there was Walid Jumblatt's flipping and flopping, expressing regret for becoming the ally of the neocons in Washington, and distancing himself from March 14, though of course he has since "clarified" his position by saying he didn't exactly leave March 14 at all. (Oddly, he had just met with the Saudis when he said it. Oddly, the Saudis like Hariri — who, of course, has spent more of his life in Saudi Arabia than in Lebanon and still wears a Saudi-style beard. Funny how that works.) Walid Bey keeps saying he supports a Hariri government but with opposition representation; he has, however, certainly shifted the math around.

It's possible that it's just a typical Lebanese August and a lot of key players are distracted, but it's also clear that Syria's hand has been strengthened, March 14 seems to be losing whatever momentum it carried out of the elections, and there doesn't appear to be a government formation deal on the immediate horizon.

Here's a selection of commentary (some wise, some polemical) by a spectrum of analysts:

• Michael Young, "Lebanon's Emancipation:An Obituary?" in the Daily Star.

• Amin Gemayel: "Those Who Were Defeated in the Polls are Acting as Winners Under the Logic of March 7."

• Zvi Mazel in The Jerusalem Post: "The End of the Cedar Revolution?" [Sorry if you read this earlier as the link wasn' there. Should be OK now.]
  

• Blogger Qifa Nabki: "Hariri for Government Formation without 'Hastiness'" (complete with a graphic of a "Slow: Children at Play" traffic sign). Also see his "March 14 Comes Undone" post.

Meanwhile, Fuad Seniora's caretaker government doesn't seem to be particularly visible.