A new Shi‘ite alliance has been formed in Iraq that excludes Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's Da‘wa Party. Maliki is reportedly seeking more influence for Da‘wa and may form an alliance with Sunni parties instead, but for now the new front is dominated by the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council. Al-Jazeera's reporting on the new front is here, and the Beirut Daily Star account is here. The new front, calling itself the National Iraqi Alliance, replaces the former United Iraqi Alliance which included Da‘wa.
Juan Cole offers his analysis of the new bloc here. He also links to an extensive analysis by Reidar Visser here. Those two analyses are far more attuned to the nuances of Iraqi Shi‘ite politics than I am, so I refer you to them for the details. Clearly it would seem that Maliki is taking a gamble that could, at least theoretically, cost him the Prime Ministership in the elections early next year. And, of course, a change in Prime Ministers at this juncture could have unforeseen impact on the schedule for the US drawdown. Maliki has proven to be a far stronger figure than many expected when he took office, but this latest development could leave Da‘wa somewhat isolated if nothing changes between now and the elections.
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
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