I'm most likely grasping at straws again, but there seem to be several little threads that could, for an optimist, augur for good on the Iranian, Syrian, and even Israeli-Palestinian fronts. Consider the evidence:
Iran
On the literal eve of the Western talks with Iran, Ahmadinejad says Iran would allow a third party to enrich uranium to the levels it requires. (Is this good or bad: Iran gets enriched uranium but doesn't need to spend the money to enrich it?) More to the point, the US allowed Iranian Foreign Minister Mottaki to swing through Washington and Iran's interest section.
19.75% is generally considered far too low in U-235 to have utility in weapons, though theoretically anything above 20% can cause mischief. The usual standard for "weapons grade" is 85%, though Little Boy at Hiroshima was 80% and that seemed to be enough.
I don't know enough about the technical side and I suppose the real concern would be that Iran would further enrich after the 19.75% enriched uranium was returned to them. But this seems to a non-physicist to be a positive sign on the eve of the talks (literally the eve since they start today) and this sends a different message from the rather in-your-eye message sent by the long-range missile tests on Yom Kippur.
And here's a Reuters report (from a Qatari paper in this case) that suggests even the Israeli leadershp is ratcheting down the rhetoric on Iran.
Syria
Right on top of Josh Landis' positive post of the other day (and my earlier comments here) came word that the Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister was coming to Washington, the highest ranking Syrian official to come in five years. No word on outcomes yet, but a better sign than the many negative stories of recent vintage.
Palestine
I didn't even comment on Khalid Misha‘al's positive comments about the latest reconciliation proposals. I thought Marc Lynch did his usual skillful job of commenting on it, right down to the extremely cautious optimism but desire to actually see something happen. But it's long been clear that there's no future for Palestinian-Israeli talks until Palestine gets its two separated parts together again, and that means finding a modus vivendi between Fatah and Hamas. Note, though, that the positive signs are coming not from the Gaza leadership (though not contradicted by them), but from the Damascus leadership, primarily Mish‘al himself. That's a good sign. A whole lot can still go wrong. But it's one more straw to grasp at, and there seems to be movement on the Gilad Shalit issue between Hamas and Israel as well.
The Middle East is full of false starts and aborted initiatives. I won't be opening any champagne any time soon. But each of these three developments seems to move a little closer to actual compromise on issues of potentially great explosive force.
Thursday, October 1, 2009
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3 comments:
Michael,
Word on the street in the beltway is that the Obama administration will finally announce (in the coming weeks)the appointment of the next US Ambassador to Syria.
This is only an unsubstantiated rumor, but from a fairly reliable source.
Perhaps this was the impetus for Syrian FM al-Mekdad's visit to Washington.
Trick may be the operative word.
The difficulty is that it is getting harder and harder to trick Middle Easterners with rhetoric and empty gestures.
Agree that signs are positive:
Item: Obama has described the Geneva talks as constructive, Burns and Jalili had a side conversation, and the Iranians have agreed to talk further about the nuclear issue. BTW: If the Iranians accept third party enrichment, it will almost certainly be the Russians and they will do it for a nice fee from the Iranians. That's good for more than one reason, since it gives the Russians a commercial incentive to relieve the rest of us of the concerns that arise from the Iranians controlling the full nuclear fuel cycle.
Item: Syrian Dep For Min Mekdad seemed pretty cheerful coming out of his State Department meetings with Deputy Secretary Lew and Assistant Secretary Feldman. State Dept is making effort to lower expectations, but Mekdad said they had covered the full range of issues.
Item: Egypt is beginning to show its old skill in deal making and soft power, both on the Hamas-Fatah reconciliation front and on the Israeli-Syrian front. It's time that we show some deference to our "full peace partner" and let them carry their share of the weight. George Mitchell and Omar Suleiman in line for a joint Nobel Peace Prize?
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