Lawrence on the Question of Whether Egypt Could Go the Way of Algeria

Ever since the July 3 toppling of Muhammad Morsi, there's been a lively debate over whether Egypt could descend into the sort of civil war that wracked Algeria through much of the 1990s. Many have dismissed the idea, noting the differences between the two countries, the fact that the Islamists in Algeria were not given a chance to govern while Morsi had a year to prove himself, etc.

William Lawrence, until recently the International Crisis Group's North Africa specialist, and who knows Algeria and Egypt both, has an informed and thoughtful analysis of just this question at Fikra Forum. His short answer is "It depends primarily on the behavior of the security forces," but read the whole thing.