The Noose Tightens

I want to be cautious about being overoptimistic, as some seem to be, that the end is near in Libya. The rebels now claim to have cut several pipelines leading to Tripoli, and are talking about having "encircled" it, but the facts remain that they have only tenuously taken Zawiya and are hundreds of kilometers away in the other direction; unless the rebels have acquired a blockading fleet I'm not aware of, Tripoli is a seaport anyway and is hard to besiege if  you don't control the sea. But at least the momentum is in the right direction.

Qadhafi's firing of a Scud missile the other day made little military sense; not only did it not hit anything but it's hardly the weapon to use against insurgents. It had a slight air of desperation, or saying, hey, we still have missiles.

On a more positive note, the Libyan Embassy in DC has reopened, but under the rebel's old flag, not Qadhafi's green banner this time. The old Ambassador, having switched sides, is back. The broadening recognition of the rebels, and the unfreezing of Libyan funds held in the West, has no doubt helped the rebels to acquire arms and ammunition, while the continuing fighting has improved their training and experience. The sense that Qadhafi's inner circle is shrinking fast — his Interior Minister took his whole family to Egypt on what he described as a "holiday" though the Libyan Embassy in Egypt reportedly was unaware of it beforehand — is no doubt helping fuel the talk of an early end. But I suspect Qadhafi will fight to the bitter end. Remember Nicolae Ceausescu?