Muqtada al-Sadr's return to Iraq after years of exile in Iran has strengthened the hand of Prime Minister Maliki and of the Shi‘ite parties, and with Muqtada's visit to his old power base in Najaf today he seems to be sending a message of "I'm back, and I'm back in the game." The clips I've seen of his return suggest he is totally surrounded by bodyguards, buy when your father, two brothers, and father-in-law were all either assassinated or executed, I guess that's to be expected.
Since just a few years ago Muqtada and his Mahdi Army were seen by the US occupation as hostile elements, I think it's a clear sign of the US disengagement in Iraq that he's back, and is a major pillar of Maliki's coalition.
Thursday, January 6, 2011
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The big test for Muqtada will be whether he can maintain his popular following and, at the same time, integrate into the Iraqi constitutional process. There are people in his movement who will want to send death squads into the streets again, and it is not clear that Muqtada can control them. By taking several service ministries, the Sadr movement may gain access to patronage and spending programs that will enable them to satisfy populist aspirations. The big test for Prime Minister Maliki is to channel this in a way that won't undermine his own leadership and be destabilizing for the country as a whole.
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