UPDATE: It looks like "the jasmine revoloution" may be catching on as the name.
The word thawra in Arabic, meaning revolution, is frequently heard but rarely witnessed. "Revolution Day" usually marks the coup d'etat that brought the regime to power, not a mass movement. And even coups have become rare. If you make an exception for Mauritania, there have been no Arab coups since Sudan in 1989. We seem today to have witnessed a real revolution from below, and what it means will be debated for a long time.
Of course, technically the ruling party is still in power; Prime Minister Ghannouchi is exercising Presidential powers "temporarily" since the President is "unable to carry out his duties" mostly because he's fled the country. But people are already questioning the constitutionality of Ghannouchi's assuming power (it's supposed to go to the Speaker of Parliament) and I suspect Ghannouchi is a very transitional figure. Revolutions in progress are unlikely to settle for the removal of Ben Ali but keeping the rest of the system in place. Now is not the moment to proclaim decisive victory, and a lot is likely to happen over the next few days, which could lead to anything, from a military coup to a civil war. But today is a day to remember.
Most Tunisian towns have a street named for November 7, the day in 1987 when Ben Ali replaced Habib Bourguiba. Perhaps they'll be changing them to January 14. (How French of them to have a Revolution on the 14th!)
Weekend Historical Video later. This is a three day weekend in the US (the Martin Luther King holiday) but I'll obviously be watching events in Tunis closely and will post if I have anything worth saying.
Friday, January 14, 2011
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2 comments:
Genuine revolution? Well, yes and no. Certainly, Ben Ali had become unpopular with the population at large. And the way he handled the initial disturbances following the suicide of Bouazizi made him less popular. I would give long odds, however, that at a key moment a delegation of senior Tunisian military officers told him that his time had come. Key event was when Ben Ali sacked the head of the army upon learning that he was ordering his troops to defend government buildings but not fire on demonstrators.
The young and very competent head of Tunisian Security when I arrived at the U.S. Embassy in Tunis in 1979 never grew into a statesman. He never developed Bourguiba's charisma and ability to convey empathy with the Tunisian people. Like Bourguiba before him, Ben Ali was way past his shelf life. How sad that it led to so much blood shed with, I fear, far more turmoil yet to come.
True enough, David. But as I respond Ghannouchi's already gone. We are, so to speak, at the Tennis Court Oath/Alexander Kerensky/Shahpour Bakhtiar stage of this Revolution. Everything depends on whether there are more stages. See my subsequent posts.
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