Are Iran's Reformists Going to Split the Vote?

Mir-Hossein Mousavi, an Iranian Prime Minister from the 1980s, is now running for President as a reformer, joining former President Mohammad Khatami and former Speaker Mehdi Karrubi. The prospect of a divided reformist vote is therefore a real one, while so far President Mahmud Ahmadinejad has the hardline end of the spectrum to himself.

I still suspect Ahmadinejad could be vulnerable to a challenge, given the economic mess, but not perhaps a challenge from the reformers, but from a figure such as Tehran Mayor Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf. The reformers may manage to settle on a single candidate, but it looks as if the vote will be divided. Actually, some veteran Iran-watchers think that either Karrubi or Mousavi might run better than Khatami, even though the latter is popular abroad.

And, of course, some candidates may be disqualified by the Council of Guardians before the country goes to the polls.