Doha Summit Politics Heating Up

The Arab Summit scheduled for Doha, Qatar on March 30 is becoming highly politicized. Egypt's Husni Mubarak is warning that Egypt will probably not attend at the Presidential level (English version here) and complaining that the Qataris did not invite Egypt properly, with the invitation coming through a lower-level official. The recent Riyadh meeting between Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Syria and Kuwait was clearly aimed at trying to associate Syria with the moderate Arab states and detach it from its ties to Iran, and Mubarak attended that one in person; Doha is clearly not as high a priority.

Egypt is also warning that if Qatar goes through with an invitation to Iranian President Ahmadinejad to attend the Doha summit (he was invited to a GCC Summit in Doha and again to the Gaza mini-summit in January), this will be an affront to Arab moderates, and reportedly three unnamed Gulf countries are threatening to reduce their level of representation if the Iranian is invited. (Saudi Arabia is presumably leading the charge; inviting a non-Arab leader to an Arab Summit is drawing complaints.)

With many moderate Arab states threatening to send low-level delegations, there is also one President who says he's coming but whose attendance could be awkward: Sudan's 'Umar al-Bashir, since he has a warrant outstanding against him from the International Criminal Court. Qatar has acceeded to the ICC statute with reservations, but most Arab states have criticized the ICC warrant for Bashir and, of course, no one is likely to arrest him at the summit, but his presence will be provocative.

So Doha is not, so far, shaping up as an Arab summit to express solidarity and reconciliation so much as one in which the divisions between those Arab states intent on ostracizing Iran (led by Egypt and Saudi Arabia) are forming ranks against those (including Qatar) who have been more conciliatory. The division carries over into other areas as well, including the Palestinian reconciliation talks in Egypt.

On the whole, Doha is looking divisive, and the split between "moderate" Arab states aligned with Cairo and Riyadh versus the rest seems likely to be deeper after Doha than before it.