A Blog by the Editor of The Middle East Journal

Putting Middle Eastern Events in Cultural and Historical Context

Friday, March 6, 2009

Billboards of Ahmadinejad Removed by Qalibaf?

Here's an interesting story worth watching. Giant billboards to celebrate the centennial of the Iranian oil industry (and showing a picture of President Ahmadinejad) have reportedly been removed by the Tehran Municipality -- where the Mayor, Mohammed Baqer Qalibaf, may be a candidate for President against Ahmadinejad (who is himself a former Mayor). Some may say that since the source is Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, this may be a case of the US making a mountain out of a molehill, and that may be so, but its seemed worth noting.

I suspect we may see more little dramas such as this in the Iranian Presidential campaign. There is enough hostiity toward/resentment of Ahmadinejad from some key figures in the Iranian leadership that I do not think his re-election is automatically assured. Especially now that the US is actually sending signals that it is open to discussions with Iran on Afghanistan, and other issues: it will be interesting to see if the non-Ahmadinejad elements in the leadership are encouraged (though of course to openly embrace the US gestures would be politically fatal). The fact that the economy is in shambles even as the global economy is contracting at record speed may also work against Ahmadinejad, who has been seen by many as posturing on nuclear energy and Israel while the economy tanked. So once again, "it's the economy, stupid" could be the theme of an insurgent political campaign. A lot, though, will depend on whether the opposition can come together behind a strong candidate. While former President Mohammed Khatami has gotten most of the Western attention, Qalibaf is reportedly quite popular, at least in Tehran.

And Hashemi-Rafsanjani reportedly met in Najaf with Ayatollah Sistani: another interesting signal.

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