Will the Bashir Warrant Backfire?

The decision by the International Criminal Court to issue a warrant for the arrest of Sudanese President 'Umar al-Bashir was welcome news to those who deplore the events in Darfur, but I'm wondering if there is a potential for the move backfiring and undercutting the fragile efforts that have been under way to bring peace in Sudan.

So far, it looks as if the main reaction in Khartoum has been defiance; it is at least possible that the regime will react by undercutting UN and African Union operations in Darfur. Yes, that would make Sudan a pariah state, but to a large extent it already is to most of the West.

Bashir has relatively few friends in the Arab world, but he seems to be gaining some support in Arab public opinion, where it is fashionable to see a double standard between the world's reactions to Israel's siege of Gaza and to Sudan's actions in Darfur. The Egyptian press has cautioned that the indictment of Bashir may backfire, and I suspect they may be right. It also looks as if Bashir will attend the Arab summit due to take place in Doha, in order to show that he can still travel outside Sudan. Turning over a fellow head of state attending a summit meeting would be an unthinkable breach of Arab international etiquette, whatever one may think of Bashir, or the wisdom of the warrant.

Make no mistake: I believe there is a strong case to be made for punishing heads of state who violate international norms and commit crimes against humanity. But if the head of state is an incumbent, attempts to execute the warrant are unlikely to succeed. Then the question becomes one of whether issuing the warrant was a tactical blunder, if in fact it produces negative results for the people of Darfur.