The Fate of Israel's Labor Party

There's a rather grim assessment of the future of the Israeli Labor Party in The The Jerusalem Post. The Post is no friend of Labor, but the party does seem deeply divided over Ehud Barak's eagerness to join a coalition with Likud. As I've said before, it's hard to know what Barak hopes to gain for Labor, since it would not be a true unity government without Kadima, the largest party in the Knesset. Barak would hold on to the Defense Ministry, but at the cost of splitting the party. Tomorrow will be the party vote. As the linked article notes, the party could split regardless of how the vote goes. But if Barak loses the vote and seeks to join Netanyahu with only two or three supporters, would that give Netanyahu enough support to leave Barak in the Defense Ministry, traditionally one of the three or four key positions? One could write a scenario where Netanyahu says no thanks. He's going to have enough trouble trying to keep Avigdor Lieberman and the religious parties in line, given Lieberman's support of civil marriage and other ideas taboo to the religious.

Forty years ago, Labor appeared to be the permanent governing party of Israel. Today it seems a mere shadow. Partly that is due to Israeli voters moving to the right, but partly it's of Labor's own making. It hasn't had a Prime Minister since Barak's fall, and now it's only the fourth largest party.