Syria's Ongoing Reconciliation Efforts

Syria does seem to be rapidly trying to rebuild its ties to the rest of the Arab world. The "mini-summit" in Riyadh, with Bashar al-Asad, King 'Abdullah, Husni Mubarak and Sheikh Sabah of Kuwait all present is the most recent evidence, but Asad has recently been making nice not only with the US (which sent the Acting Assistant Secretary of State to Damascus) but even talking about going ahead with an Israeli peace treaty despite Binyamin Netanyahu's likely coming to power, and indicating that, if the US mediates, he could resume direct negotiations with the Israelis.

Part of this is, I'm sure, realpolitik. There's a new government in Washington that is extending a hand to Syria, after years of Syria trying to restart peace talks and being rebuffed by Washington. Part of it is inter-Arab maneuvering prior to the upcoming Doha Summit. Part of it is the fact that the Hariri Assassination investigation is getting ready to launch in The Hague, and Syria may need all the friends it can get lest it find itself where Sudan's 'Umar al-Bashir has found himself. Part of it is a real desire to cut a deal with Israel that gets back the Golan Heights, something that Hafiz al-Asad couldn't do in nearly 30 years in power. And some of it, too, may be a genuine discomfort with Syria being Iran's ally at a time when much of the Arab world is aligning against Iran: Syria, which long prided itself on being the "beating heart of Arabism," is seen by some Arabs as becoming a sort of Persian satrapy.

Now Bashar has gone to Riyadh and met with 'Abdullah, Mubarak, and Sheikh Sabah. As it happens, 'Abdullah has always been friendlier towards Syria than most Saudi royals because one of his wives was a Syrian 'Alawite (said to be kin to Rif'at al-Asad's wife, though Bashar's Uncle Rif'at has been in exile for quite some time now). But the Kingdom is not happy with Syria's flirtation with Iran and support of Hizbullah; and now Bashar has gone publicly to Riyadh to meet with the three most pro-Western Arab leaders.

Bashar is certainly trying to look like he's moderating and opening up on both peace with Israel (at a time when Netanyahu seems an improbable candidate for a Golan deal), reconciliation with Riyadh and Cairo, and opening up to the United States.

I remember a line used by a Syria hand when Bashar took power. I made a wisecrack about the improbability of an ophthamologist as the autocrat of Syria, and the friend (I'll identify him publicly only if he recognizes the line and admits to it) said that actually, an ophthamologist might be just right for a Middle Eastern leader: just as an eye doctor asks you, "which is clearer, this one -- or this one?" until he has your vision figured out, so such a careful and calibrated approach might be just right for a leader of Syria. I was among the skeptics who thought the seemingly gentle, British-trained ophthamologist wouldn't last very long in the den of wolves that he inherited in Damascus, but he is seemingly in full control now, and some of the wolves are in exile (Rif'at, 'Abd al-Halim Khaddam), dead (Ghazi Kan'an by -- possibly assisted? -- suicide), or in eclipse (longtime Defense Minister Mustafa Tlas, Intelligence Chief 'Ali Duba). Maybe the ophthamologist and his inner circle know something after all.